Clear number for the bull of Manacor?
Although he remained without a title in the 2022 clay court season, Spanish superstar Rafael Nadal is currently back in form at his showpiece tournament. The bull from Manacor advanced to the last 16 with three virtually unchallenged victories, bringing his total to 108 wins from 111 singles matches played at Roland Garros – an unbelievable rate.
Now the Majorcan will face an up-and-coming Canadian who once reached the final of the French Open boys’ singles in 2016, but who has not yet achieved too much in his professional clay-court career. Accordingly, in the run-up to the duel between Félix Auger-Aliassime and Rafael Nadal, the odds are swinging in the Spaniard’s favour.
The Canadian’s big weapon is undoubtedly his first serve, with which he usually decides his matches. On the one hand, however, a good service game is much easier to crack on the slow clay court and on the other hand, Rafa is probably the most gifted return player on the ATP Tour, which is why we don’t think the world number nine from Canada has any chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
The best value for Félix Auger-Aliassime against Rafael Nadal is to bet on the bull from Manacor getting more than 5.5 breaks against the Canadian.
Félix Auger-Aliassime – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the World Ranking: 9
Position in the seedings: 9
The 21-year-old Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime made the jump to the pros at a very young age. At the tender age of 14, the man from Montreal became the youngest player ever to win a match on the ATP Challenger Tour.
At the latest with his overall victory in the boys’ singles at the 2016 US Open, it was clear to all observers that the player, who is also coached by the great Toni Nadal in addition to Frederic Fontang, would one day also be at the top of the ATP world rankings.
Only 26.5% of matches won against top-10 players
Ninth in the world, Félix Auger-Aliassime has also recently made the leap to the top of the world, even though the Canadian has only one tournament win on the ATP Tour to his name. In Rotterdam in February, he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-0 on hard court.
However, if his nerves had not failed him time and again in the big matches, he could have done much better. The 21-year-old has already played in a total of ten finals in his career on the ATP Tour. However, he has lost nine of these finals outright 2-0, and his record against Top 10 players is correspondingly poor, with only 26.5% of his matches against them being won.
Auger-Aliassime lives on his first serve
Fittingly, the Canadian enters the round of 16 as an underdog. After all, clay is not the surface of the 21-year-old, who lives primarily on his serve.
It is true that his service has already secured him victories at Roland Garros. For example, the world number nine did not surrender a single service game in the second round against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. However, when his opponents showed return qualities, he was shaken, especially since he scored with his second serve in just 49% of all cases during the tournament.
Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 5
Position in the seedings: 5
The 35-year-old Spaniard Rafael Nadal started the 2022 tennis season almost perfectly. At the Australian Open, the Majorcan advanced to the overall winner and secured his 21st Grand Slam title.
He also won tournaments in Melbourne and Acapulco. The bull of Manacor was only stopped in Indian Wells. At that point, he had won 20 singles in a row. Mind you, without a single match on his favourite surface, clay.
108 of the 111 singles won at the French Open
All the more surprising came Rafa’s slump in the clay court season, in which he surprisingly failed to secure a single singles title. Pain in his foot even led to his elimination in the round of 16 in Rome.
Just in time for the French Open, which the exceptional player has already won 13 times in his career, “Mr. Roland Garros” is back to his old self. With three unchallenged 3-0 victories, he is not only in the last 16 of his favourite tournament, but also increased his incredible French Open record to 108 victories from 111 singles matches.
So far 20 successful breaks in the tournament
Once again, it was the mixture of a commanding service game, which the bull from Manacor only surrendered a total of five times on his way to the last 16 (a maximum of two times per match), and above-average return qualities.
In just nine sets played, the Majorcan made an unbelievable 20 successful breaks. Accordingly, Félix Auger-Aliassime’s bet on more than 5.5 breaks in this round of 16 against Rafael Nadal is a good one, which should set the course for a return to the quarter-finals.
Félix Auger Aliassime – Rafael Nadal Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:1
Both athletes have faced each other before in a singles match on clay at the 2019 Madrid Open. Rafael Nadal prevailed 2-0 in the end without any problems (6:3 and 6:3).
Félix Auger Aliassime – Rafael Nadal Tip
For Félix Auger-Aliassime against Rafael Nadal, the prediction clearly goes in the direction of the Mallorcan, who has once again surpassed himself at the French Open and is unstoppable. In three straight 3-0 victories, the bull from Manacor has already managed 20 breaks, while he himself surrendered his service game a maximum of two times per match (five times in total). The numbers could be similar afterwards against the Canadian shooting star, who lives primarily on his strong first serve.
However, the Canadian should also find it difficult to keep his service consistent over at least three sets against the Spaniard, especially as the performance data on the second serve of the 21-year-old was very poor. Therefore, there is a lot of value in betting that Rafa will get more than 5.5 breaks.
