Can the Canadian shooting star stand up to the top favourite?
After Alexander Zverev’s elimination in the round of 16, Daniil Medvedev has become the top favourite to win the Australian Open 2022. The Russian, who already reached the final of the first Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year a year ago, now clashes with the man he defeated, among others, in the semifinals of the US Open on the way to his first Grand Slam straight 3-0.
However, the young Canadian has also learned something new and presented himself in impressive form in Down Under. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the quarter-final between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev, the odds are clearly in favour of the world number two from Russia.
Nevertheless, almost anything can happen in this duel between two reigning Top 10 players. After all, the Russian recently complained of back and stomach pains in the last 16, which visibly affected him at times. If the world number two offers something, the Canadian could well be there.
Accordingly, there are many indications that Felix Auger-Aliassime’s bet on Daniil Medvedev will be a somewhat longer match in which the Canadian wins at least one set. We are therefore betting on the underdog with an Asian handicap of +2.5 sets.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 9
Position in the seedings: 9
The 21-year-old Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime already made his debut on the ATP Tour in 2016 in the Roger’s Cup qualifying. The player, who was coached by Toni Nadal among others, has been making regular appearances since 2018.
The shooting star has already reached eight finals since then. However, he missed out on winning the title in all eight cases by an even score of 0:2 – most recently last summer in Stuttgart against Marin Cilic, to whom he was able to take revenge Down Under.
In the quarter-finals for the third Grand Slam tournament in a row
In the last 16 of the 2022 Australian Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime beat the Croatian giant 3-1 in a heated battle after trailing 1-0 to reach the last eight in the third successive Grand Slam tournament after Wimbledon 2021 and the 2021 US Open.
Most recently, the 21-year-old even reached the semifinals at Flushing Meadows, where he was thwarted 3-0 by his current opponent Daniil Medvedev. A match for which the Canadian would love to take revenge as well.
Has Auger-Aliassime’s serve held up against one of the best return players?
One important factor for the shooting star, who won the ATP Cup with his country in the run-up to the Australian Open, but had no chance against Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals against Russia (0:2), is undoubtedly his service. Against Marin Cilic, the ninth-ranked player in the world scored 62 out of 72 times with his first serve (86%).
If Felix Auger-Aliassime’s hopes of reaching the semi-finals against Daniil Medvedev are to pay off, he will certainly need a similar rate. After all, he is now facing one of the best return players on the ATP Tour. With a view to his low error rate, he should nevertheless be able to score many important points with his serve alone.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
After Novak Djokovic’s visa was revoked, 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev entered the Australian Open as the top seed.
The world number two could now make history. If he lives up to his role as favourite, he would not only win the second Grand Slam title of his young career, but would also overtake the Djoker in the rankings and become the world number one.
With pain and mind games into the quarterfinals
But Daniil Medvedev has several hurdles to overcome before that.
One of them is the physically strong Canadian, who is not exactly facing the Russian at the best possible time. Already in the round of 16 in the 3:1 victory over Maxime Cressy, Medvedev finally complained of stomach and back pain.
Even with psychological games against his American opponent, the Russian ultimately kept the upper hand after 46 tough games and punched his ticket to the quarter-finals. After the end of the match, he unabashedly admitted that his behaviour on the court and the dispute with the chair umpire were aimed at upsetting the inexperienced American.
Daniil Medvedev also plays against the crowd
Medvedev, who eliminated “local hero” Nick Kyrgios in the second round, certainly does not have the hearts of the spectators on his side with his behaviour. Accordingly, the world number two is likely to face a lot of headwind after the arguments with the referee in the match against Cressy.
However, this does not change his clear role as favourite in view of his two most recent victories against the Canadian.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 0:3
The two players have faced each other three times so far and the experienced Russian, who did not have to drop a set against the Canadian shooting star in either the semifinals of the US Open 2021 or the semifinals of the ATP Cup 2022, has been victorious on all three occasions.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Daniil Medvedev Tip
Also because of the very clear recent two duels between both athletes, the prediction for Felix Auger-Aliassime against Daniil Medvedev goes clearly in the direction of the world number two. Nevertheless, the Russian is not only competing against the Canadian, but also against the Australian crowd. If he has to struggle with pain again, his entry into the semifinals is not likely to be smooth at all.
Accordingly, we see a lot of value in betting that the young Canadian can take at least one set from the reigning US Open winner. Should the 21-year-old even take more, this would also be covered with an Asian handicap of +2.5 sets on the supposed underdog.
