Who will win the most prestigious clash in Round 1?

Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have played in a total of six Grand Slam finals. While the Austrian could even become US Open champion in 2020 and thus realise a childhood dream, his Greek opponent is still waiting for a Grand Slam success. That this will change at Wimbledon is about as likely as a Bochum championship in the coming Bundesliga season.

The 24-year-old clay-court specialist doesn’t know much about the grass courts of this world, has never made it past the last 16 at the third Grand Slam of the year in London and is also in anything but good shape. Nevertheless, there are currently many indications that betting on the Greek in the first round duel Thiem v. Tsitsipas will pay off, which is primarily due to the now regrettable performance of the man from Wiener Neustadt.

Domi not only has a disastrous record in tennis in 2023, but has also lost five of his last six matches. The last success on grass, meanwhile, was five years ago (!). Before the match between Thiem and Tsitsipas, we therefore dare to predict that we will not see any particularly high-class grass court tennis. Nevertheless, it could be dramatic and exciting, we do not expect an outright success. Four or even five sets are conceivable.

Dominic Thiem – Statistics & current form

Do you still remember the glorious times when Dominic Thiem did not belong to the extended world elite in the ATP circus, but was even one of the three best tennis players in the world? Especially on clay, there were only a few players who could hold a candle to the “dominator” from Wiener Neustadt. Within three years, the likeable right-hander made it to a Grand Slam final four times and finally secured the biggest success of his career in 2020 in New York with the triumph at the US Open.

Afterwards, however, Thiem had to struggle with unbelievable bad luck due to injuries. Among other things, his protracted wrist problem has meant that the Austrian is still in the world’s top 100 by the skin of his teeth. The 29-year-old, who has demonstrably lost some of his hitting power due to the aforementioned injury and is also no longer able to give the yellow felt ball as much spin, is miles away from the world’s best.

Thiem’s fight against himself

The tennis year 2023 is increasingly becoming the low point of the clay court specialist’s career. Domi won only twelve of the 31 matches he played. All twelve victories came on red clay, almost half of them on the second-class Challenger Tour. In both Grand Slams so far, Domi was eliminated in the first round. The same is likely to happen on Tuesday in Wimbledon, because with a view to the Thiem vs. Tsitsipas odds, an advancement of the Austrian would be a medium sensation.

This assessment by the best bookmakers is not necessarily based on the strength of the opponent, but primarily on Thiem’s weakness. The former Grand Slam champion has not won a match on grass since 2018 (!). In fact, the right-hander has only played three matches on the unpopular surface since 2019.

In 2023, he played his only match on the green surface in Halle and lost to Alex Zverev in two sets. Even in his heyday, he never made it further than the round of 16 in London. We don’t expect the world number 90 to win more than one set against Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is also in poor form. After five defeats in the last six matches, his self-confidence is at rock bottom anyway.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form

For the past few weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been tying the knot with Spanish tennis player Paula Badosa. However, the summer feelings of infatuation have not yet led to a real rise in form for the Greek. Quite the opposite. The 24-year-old is still lagging far behind his own expectations and has had to cope with a series of disappointments lately. At least at the Grand Slams, however, the right-hander did not disappoint.

In January, Stef reached the final of the Australian Open, but lost to Novak Djokovic as expected. At the French Open, he finally lost in the quarter-finals to Carlos Alcaraz in three sets, which Tsitsipas subsequently explained with the unnecessary use of the “fatigue-inducing” melatonin spray.

There is no love affair developing between Tsitsipas and Wimbledon

If the current world number five makes it to the last eight at Wimbledon, it will be the best result of his career at the All England Tennis Club. So far, he has not made more than the last 16 in 2018. Nevertheless, the grass court record of the man from Athens still reads better than that of his upcoming opponent, which should also make it clear why lower odds are offered on the Greek in the duel Thiem vs Tsitsipas.

In 2022, Tsitsipas even won the grass court tournament in Mallorca. In the current tennis year, however, the two-time Grand Slam finalist failed to clear his opening hurdle in Stuttgart and Mallorca. Only in Halle did he reach the second round, where Nicholas Jarry was too big for him. In his only victory against Frenchman Barrere, Stef also had to go through three sets and win two tie breaks.

The far from exhilarating form is therefore one of the main reasons why we do not assume that a forecast of an outright three-set win between Thiem and Tsitsipas will pay off. Nevertheless, the probability that the currently clearly better tennis player from Greece will advance to round two is very high.

Dominic Thiem – Stefanos Tsitsipas Direct comparison / H2H record

There have been nine matches on the ATP Tour so far between these two prominent tennis professionals. The most significant encounter was certainly in the final of the 2019 ATP Tour Finals, when Tsitsipas prevailed over the Austrian in a third-set tie break to become the unofficial world champion. Overall, however, Thiem leads the head-to-head comparison with five wins compared to four losses. There has not yet been a meeting on grass.

Dominic Thiem – Stefanos Tsitsipas tip

It is definitely the most notable first round clash at this year’s Wimbledon men’s tournament. The two multiple Grand Slam finalists Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas are already facing each other in the opener. The two prominent professionals are now separated by almost 90 places in the rankings. Thiem is just in the top 100, Stef is currently number five in the world.

That is one of the reasons why the bookmakers do not expect the Austrian to win on Tuesday. Between Thiem and Tsitsipas, the betting odds for a win by the injury-plagued former US Open champion are peaking at 5.20. Domi has not won a match on grass since 2018, and has only played three matches on the green surface at all since 2019. His form, with five defeats from his last six matches, once again raises questions.

Although Stefanos Tsitsipas is not playing the stars from the sky at the moment either and is not a good grass court player himself, we expect him to live up to his role as favourite as world number five and win the match.

We don’t believe in an outright success, but a favourite win with a set loss seems to be within the realm of possibility. We therefore try to bet on a 3:1 win between Thiem and Tsitsipas in favour of the Greek.