When will the Wiener Neustädter end his form crisis?
After his stops in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, Dominic Thiem now continues his tour through South America in Santiago de Chile. At the Chile Open 2023, the Wiener Neustädter wants to finally find his way back to his old strength, but will have to deal with the overall winner of the 2021 edition directly in the first round. Nevertheless, according to the bookmakers’ assessment of Dominic Thiem against Cristian Garín, betting on the Lower Austrian is the more realistic choice.
Two aspects speak in favour of the US Open winner of 2020. Firstly, Dominic Thiem is considered one of the most gifted clay court players on the ATP Tour. And secondly, the Viennese has also won the only duel with his Chilean opponent so far very confidently with 2:0. Nevertheless, Dominic Thiem’s prognosis against Cristian Garín must also take into account the not too good form of the Lower Austrian.
After the last two years, which were marked by injuries, Dominic Thiem is only ranked 99th in the ATP World Ranking and has not performed too well in the still young year of 2023. The 29-year-old has won just one of his six singles matches so far. Consequently, it should not be categorically ruled out that the player from Wiener Neustadt will also have to accept a first-round exit in Chile.
Although we also see the Lower Austrian in the role of favourite, we find greater value in betting on the fact that a maximum of 23 games are to be played in this opening match before the winner is decided.
Dominic Thiem – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 99
Seeded List Position: Wildcard
The 29-year-old Austrian Dominic Thiem finished the 2020 season at the zenith of his career so far. After previously losing three Grand Slam tournament finals in a row, the Wiener Neustädter secured his first singles title at a Grand Slam at the 2020 US Open.
Since 2021, however, the Lower Austrian has been repeatedly set back by injuries and is completely behind his form. Thiem has not won a single tournament since said US Open.
Won only one of six singles in 2023
The 29-year-old, who has now slipped to 99th in the ATP world rankings and was only allowed to compete in the Chile Open with a wildcard, did not cover himself with glory in 2023 either. The player from Wiener Neustadt has won only one of his six singles matches so far this year.
Most recently, Dominic Thiem also failed in his opening match in Rio de Janeiro against a local hero when he was beaten 1:2 by Thiago Monteiro (ATP 83). Accordingly, it is surprising that the odds are slightly in favour of Dominic Thiem against Cristian Garín.
1:0 advantage in direct comparison
The fact that Dominic Thiem is 1-0 up in the head-to-head comparison speaks in favour of the Grand Slam champion. However, that duel also goes back to 2020, which was demonstrably the strongest year in the Wiener Neustadt player’s career so far.
Nevertheless, the 29-year-old still has enormous potential on clay, which brought him several titles on his favourite surface in the first years of his career. So if the Lower Austrian finally gets the switch flipped again, the really big shot is also possible on the clay courts at Club Deportivo Universidad Catolica.
Cristian Garín – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 100
Seeded List Position: Wildcard
The 26-year-old Chilean Cristian Garín has also been significantly better placed in the ATP world rankings before. The player, who like Dominic Thiem is coached by Nicolas Massu in the Chilean Davis Cup team, once reached the top 20 in the autumn of 2021, but after a wrist injury he was also unable to repeat his old successes.
In 2021, the Santiago de Chile-born player celebrated his last overall victory in an ATP Tour tournament at the Chile Open in his hometown and city of birth.
Last year with a first-round exit in Santiago
A year ago, Garín started his mission to defend his title at the Chile Open as the top seed, but was defeated by his compatriot Alejandro Tabilo in the first round. Accordingly, the 26-year-old has set his sights high for this year.
However, the draw could hardly have been more unpleasant for the overall winner of 2021, who also only reached the main draw of the Chile Open with a wild card. Should Dominic Thiem’s bet on his entry into the second round against Cristian Garín come true, last year’s finalist Sebastián Báez (ATP 35) will be waiting there.
Won only two of six singles matches in 2023
By the way, things have not gone particularly well for Cristian Garín this year either. The Chilean has only two wins from six singles matches on the ATP Tour and has already suffered several unexpected defeats.
For example, he lost to Raul Brancaccio (ATP 194) at a Challenger tournament or had to admit defeat to the underdog Timofey Skatov (ATP 129) in the Davis Cup. It will be correspondingly difficult for the local hero to show a clear improvement in performance in front of his home crowd.
Dominic Thiem – Cristian Garín Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1:0
In 2020, both athletes faced each other once before in a singles match, which Dominic Thiem won smoothly 2:0 on indoor hard court (6:3 and 6:2). Curiously, both players faced each other at the Vienna Open in the hometown of the Lower Austrian, while they now meet again in Santiago in the Chilean’s birthplace.
Dominic Thiem – Cristian Garín Tip
The betting odds on Dominic Thiem against Cristian Garín go in favour of the player from Wiener Neustadt, whereby it is not primarily the form of the Lower Austrian that tips the scales, but rather the fact that his Chilean opponent has not been able to build on his old successes for some time. In this context, however, it must be clear that a lot can happen in a duel between two athletes who are far from their best form.
We consider the forecast for Dominic Thiem against Cristian Garín to be correspondingly coherent, with a maximum of 23 games to be played before the winner is decided. In view of the recent results of both players, there was rarely too much resistance after losing sets.
