Will the man from Kempen now get under the wheels?

Daniel Altmaier’s recent run continued at the venerable All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. The German won his first match in the men’s singles at the Wimbledon Championships and is through to the second round after a 3-2 victory over local hero Arthur Fery (ATP 247). The man from Kempen has now won eight of his last ten singles matches. Nevertheless, Denis Shapovalov’s hopes of another win for the German against Daniel Altmaier are not under a good star

Denis Shapovalov may have been set back by an injury in 2023 and may have fallen out of the top 100 of the ATP world rankings as a result. The Canadian, who was once ranked second in the junior world rankings, is nevertheless the more experienced player on grass. This is also demonstrated by the fact that he won ten of his 16 singles matches at Wimbledon, which certainly influences our prediction for Denis Shapovalov against Daniel Altmaier

An added complication is that Denis Shapovalov, a left-hander who also plays a one-handed backhand, can use his power very well, especially on the fast grass, while Daniel Altmaier tends to play a more wait-and-see and reactive game. As a result, the slow clay court suits the German much better, which is why the surface at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club is likely to be a factor in this Canadian-German second round match.

Not only do we expect Denis Shapovalov to win, but we also expect the Canadian to progress to the third round relatively unchallenged. Accordingly, we place a small handicap of -5.5 games on the favorite in our betting recommendation

Denis Shapovalov – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 121
Position in the seeding list: Protected Ranking

The 25-year-old Canadian Denis Shapovalov started his career on the ATP Tour as the former number two in the junior world rankings with much praise ahead of him. After reaching the final of a Masters tournament for the first time in Paris in 2019, his final breakthrough seemed only a matter of time.

Five years later, however, it can be soberly stated that the Israeli-born player has only won a single title on the ATP Tour – at a small tournament in Stockholm in the fall of 2019.

Denis Shapovalov with an exclamation mark in round one

The fact that Denis Shapovalov has never really made it that far is partly due to the fact that he doesn’t have the best record against the absolute top stars on the ATP Tour. Nevertheless, he has usually made it far. Three years ago, for example, the 25-year-old reached the semi-finals of the men’s singles at the Wimbledon Championships.

In 2023, however, the Canadian was then set back by an injury and dropped out of the top 100 of the ATP world rankings. The tournament management nevertheless allowed him to start with a protected ranking in the Wimbledon men’s singles, where nothing went wrong in the opening match. Denis Shapovalov impressively swept aside Nicolas Jarry (ATP 20) 3:0

Denis Shapovalov impressed with his own service game

The odds are clearly stacked in the Canadian’s favor against Daniel Altmaier in Denis Shapovalov’s opening match, where he was able to shine in his service game in particular. In 83 percent of all cases, he scored directly with his first serve. Even in 22 out of 29 cases in which he had to use his second serve, he ended up winning the point – an impressive 76 percent.

As a result, the 25-year-old didn’t concede a single service game in round one, which was half the battle for the smooth 3:0 victory against a top 20 player. If the Canadian brings his strong service to the court again now, it could be similarly clear, although he is of course in no way one of the Wimbledon 2024 favorites

Daniel Altmaier – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 80
Position in the seeding list: unseeded

The 25-year-old German Daniel Altmaier became a regular at Grand Slam tournaments in 2022 and has hardly missed any major tournaments on the ATP Tour since 2023, although he prefers to play on the ATP Challenger Tour in between.

All of his successes can therefore be traced back to the Challenger circuit. He has already won seven singles titles here. He almost added another title the weekend before last. However, he lost 2-0 to Jesper de Jong (ATP 146) in the final of a Challenger tournament in Sassuolo

Daniel Altmaier finds it extremely difficult on grass

It is noticeable that the German practically always prefers the clay court tournament when several tournaments on different surfaces would be an option for him. Of course, this is primarily due to the fact that, as a wait-and-see and patient return player, he clearly prefers the slow surface.

The fact that so many serves cannot be defended on grass, which robs his return game of its impact, does not suit him at all. In the run-up to this year’s edition of the men’s singles of the Wimbledon Championship, Daniel Altmaier had therefore not yet recorded a single win

The second serve is Altmaier’s Achilles heel

This year, too, he had to work hard for his maiden victory. The man from Kempen struggled to a 3:2 comeback win against the blatant outsider Arthur Fery (ATP 247), in which he was barely able to conceal his deficits, particularly on his own serve. For example, he only scored points 38 percent of the time when the first serve didn’t come, which meant he conceded seven service games over the five sets.

So it’s no wonder that Denis Shapovalov’s next win against Daniel Altmaier is a very bad bet, even though the German is at least going into the match with momentum. The 80th-ranked player in the world has won eight of his last ten singles matches

Denis Shapovalov – Daniel Altmaier Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 0:0

There has never been a single match between the two athletes, who are now facing each other for the first time ever. So far there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our predictions for Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier

Denis Shapovalov – Daniel Altmaier prediction

The bookmakers’ betting odds for Denis Shapovalov against Daniel Altmaier favor the Canadian, who already made short work of his opponent in the opening match, while the German, who is not too experienced on grass, had a tough time with the number 247 in the ATP world rankings and only just managed a 3:2 comeback win. The fast surface at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club should ruthlessly expose the deficits in the Kempener’s game and clearly speaks in favor of the victory for the Canadian, who has ten wins from 16 singles matches played at Wimbledon

Unless the Canadian has a bad day – or, conversely, the German has a great day – we can expect a very one-sided match. Accordingly, our betting recommendation is a handicap of -5.5 games on Denis Shapovalov.

Bet365 is offering odds of 1.83 that the Canadian will emerge victorious from this second round match with at least a six-game lead, which we are playing with four out of ten units