Who will enter the grand final as the underdog?
The biggest surprises at the Australian Open 2024 have undoubtedly taken place in the women’s singles in the top half of the tournament tree. It wasn’t Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina who made it to the semi-finals, but two players that very few experts would have expected to be here. Now a Ukrainian-Chinese duel between Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng – betting tip and odds are available in this article – will determine the finalist who will challenge Coco Gauff or Aryna Sabalenka as the underdog on Saturday
The oddsmakers’ predictions for Dayana Yastremska against Qinwen Zheng lean towards the Chinese player, who has already impressed at the 2023 US Open, where she reached the quarter-finals of the women’s singles at Grand Slam level for the first time. However, the Chinese player has had to work much harder recently and was on court for more than a whole hour longer than her Ukrainian opponent against Anna Kalinskaya on Wednesday
For young Dayana Yastremska, meanwhile, the Australian Open 2024 is her big breakthrough. The Ukrainian, ranked just 93rd, has achieved the feat of reaching the semi-finals of the hard-court Grand Slam tournament Down Under as a qualifier. The last time the Australian Christine Matison achieved this before her was at the Australian Open in 1978.
Of course, the 23-year-old has nothing more to lose in this round, which is why we definitely have the cheeky player from Odessa on our radar. In any case, given the performances of both players, we think this semi-final is pretty evenly matched. In a 50:50 situation, it is all the more appropriate to back the odds-on underdog, which is our top betting recommendation.
Dayana Yastremska – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 93
Position in the seeding list: Qualifier
23-year-old Ukrainian Dayana Yastremska has already made history at the Australian Open 2024. After all, no qualifier has made it to the semi-finals of a women’s singles event at the traditionally first Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year for 46 years.
This makes the player from Odessa the first woman to achieve this feat since Australian Christine Matison (1978). Incidentally, the world number 93 is also the first Ukrainian woman of all time to reach a Grand Slam semi-final Down Under. Not even her famous compatriot Elina Svitolina has achieved this milestone before.
Dayana Yastremska is just two steps short of immortality
Naturally, the 23-year-old now wants to take the final step and secure her ticket to the final. The bookmakers’ odds on Dayana Yastremska against Qinwen Zheng are against the Odessa player reaching the final. However, it should be noted that the Ukrainian has once again been on top form recently.
Not only did Dayana Yastremska eliminate Markéta Vondrousová (WTA 7), the 2023 Wimbledon winner, 2:0 (6:1 and 6:2) during the tournament, but she also sent Victoria Azarenka (WTA 22), a two-time Australian Open winner (2012 and 2013), home 2:0 (7:6 and 6:4) in the round of 16.
Dayana Yastremska served strongly and returned with calculated risk
Also 2:0 (6:3 and 6:4) in the quarter-finals against Swiatek conqueror Linda Nosková (WTA 50). Dayana Yastremska was on court for just 80 minutes against the Czech and once again impressed with a service that was almost impossible to defend.
Winning 76 percent of points on her first serve and 54 percent on her second was half the battle. If her opponent then had to come over the second serve herself, the Ukrainian took calculated risks and took the point 56 percent of the time. That could now also be the key to success in the semi-finals
Qinwen Zheng – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 15
Position in the seeding list: 12
The 21-year-old Chinese player Qinwen Zheng made her first very tentative steps on the WTA Tour in 2019, before making her debut in a women’s singles Grand Slam tournament exactly two years ago at the Australian Open 2022.
The player from Shiyan was mostly able to avoid a first-round exit. However, the higher the level became as the tournaments progressed, the more difficult it became for the Chinese player, who has since climbed to 15th in the WTA world rankings. Until the 2023 US Open, when she reached the quarter-finals for the first time
At her fourth attempt, Qinwen Zheng reaches a major semi-final for the first time
At Flushing Meadows, however, the round of the top eight players, in which Qinwen Zheng had already failed at major level in WTA 1000 tournaments at the Canadian Open 2022 and the Italian Open 2023, was the highest of feelings.
The 21-year-old has now made it through to the quarter-finals of a major tournament for the first time at her fourth attempt, but needed a comeback win to do so, in which she also benefited from the injury to her Russian opponent Anna Kalinskaya (WTA 75). In the end, however, she sealed her place in the semi-finals 2:1 (6:7, 6:3 and 6:1).
Qinwen Zheng only lost one match in 2024
The Chinese player was thus able to build on her good performance at the United Cup, where she secured two important victories for Team China, in which the 21-year-old beat Markéta Vondrousová (WTA 7) 2:1, among others.
Dayana Yastremska’s chances of advancing to the grand final against Qinwen Zheng are therefore also under a good star. After all, the WTA world number 15, who scored on her first serve 80 percent of the time in the quarter-finals, has only been beaten by world number one Iga Swiatek so far in 2024 and has won seven of her eight singles matches
Dayana Yastremska – Qinwen Zheng Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0:0
Never before have the two players crossed paths in a ranked singles match. There is therefore no head-to-head data available ahead of the semi-final of the Australian Open 2024 that could influence our predictions for Dayana Yastremska v Qinwen Zheng
Dayana Yastremska – Qinwen Zheng Prediction
The betting odds for Dayana Yastremska against Qinwen Zheng clearly favor the Chinese player, who is ranked significantly higher than the Ukrainian qualifier as number 15 in the WTA world rankings and already played a strong Grand Slam tournament at the US Open 2023. However, the 21-year-old player from Shiyan has not yet celebrated any resounding successes at major level and, like Dayana Yastremska, is breaking new ground. In fact, we even get the impression that the Chinese player might be a little nervous at the thought of an upcoming Grand Slam final
All in all, we think the duel is very evenly matched based on the performance data so far. It is clear that form on the day will play a major role. In principle, however, the odds should be around 50:50. The prediction of Dayana Yastremska winning against Qinwen Zheng is correspondingly consistent for the Ukrainian qualifier, as even a win probability of 35 percent results in a positive expected value in the underdog bet
