Will the Muscovite’s experience make the difference?

Daniil Medvedev may have qualified for the ATP Finals as the number four in the world for the sixth year in a row. However, the Russian will certainly not be particularly satisfied with the way the season went. For the first time since 2017, he once again went the whole season without a title. If the prediction of a first-round defeat for Daniil Medvedev against Taylor Fritz should prove correct, his chances of winning a singles title at the year-end tournament in Turin would also dwindle significantly.

Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, managed to win two tournaments in the 2024 calendar year, but once again celebrated these at small tournaments in the ATP World Tour 250 category. The American, who reached the 2024 US Open final, was denied further major titles. This is also due to his still not-too-strong win rate against top 10 players (38.8 percent), which in turn shifts the prediction in favor of the Russian in Daniil Medvedev’s match against Taylor Fritz.

The balance also suggests that the Muscovite can win this opening game. Not only does Daniil Medvedev have a significantly better win rate against other top 10 players. He has also won the only direct duel with Taylor Fritz 2-0, although this duel on the hard courts of the Western & Southern Open 2022 went into a tiebreak in the first set.

In view of the American’s strong service, bets on over 0.5 tiebreaks are on offer again. However, we see even more value in the direct tip on Daniil Medvedev’s victory. We find the top quote for this in the Betway program.

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4

The 28-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev qualified for the ATP Finals for the sixth time in a row as the current number four in the ATP world rankings. In 2020, the Muscovite even managed to win the year-end tournament once and be crowned the unofficial world champion.

Along with his overall victory at the US Open 2021, it was one of the biggest milestones of his career, which had been marked by many bitter defeats, especially in major finals. Daniil Medvedev has already lost in the final of a Grand Slam tournament five times – most recently at the Australian Open 2024.

Daniil Medvedev faces a title-less season

That final disappointment in Melbourne, where the 28-year-old still lost 2-0 in sets against Jannik Sinner and ultimately missed out on his second Grand Slam title 2-3, was also indicative of a rather used year in 2024.

The record of 45 wins from 64 completed singles matches reads well overall. However, the Russian did not win a single singles title in the current season, in which he also lost the final of the Indian Wells Masters. For the first time since 2017, Daniil Medvedev went through an entire tennis season without a single title.

How does Daniil Medvedev start the tournament?

But of course the year is not over yet. If Daniil Medvedev’s tip of an opening victory against Taylor Fritz comes true, a run could possibly be started again. In the Ilie Năstase Group, Jannik Sinner, a real heavyweight, is still waiting for the fourth in the world rankings. However, Alex de Minaur should also be doable for the Russian.

However, it will be crucial for the 28-year-old to show a good reaction to his recent very weak performance in Paris. At the last Masters tournament of the 2024 season, the fourth-ranked player in the world rankings finally bowed out with a 1-2 loss in the very first game against Alexei Popyrin (ATP 24)…

Taylor Fritz – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 6
Position in the seeding list: 5

The 27-year-old American Taylor Fritz initially had slight starting problems on the ATP Tour, but in recent years he has been able to work his way up into the top 10 from a player who occasionally scraped the top 20 in the ATP world rankings.

He qualified for the ATP Finals for the second time after 2022. Even back then, he went beyond the preliminary round and only ended up with a 0-2 loss in the semi-finals to the eventual overall winner, Novak Djokovic, to whom the Californian had to admit defeat in two tiebreaks.

All in all, a very successful season

In the current year, Taylor Fritz has recorded 49 wins from 70 completed singles matches. He also won his seventh and eighth singles titles, although in February in Delray Beach and in June in Eastbourne he again “only” managed to win two small tournaments in the ATP World Tour 250 category.

However, the 28-year-old was unable to take advantage of a major opportunity for a truly groundbreaking success. In the final of the US Open 2024, the American clearly lost 0-3 to Jannik Sinner, with whom there will be a rematch in the Ilie Năstase Group at the ATP Finals in Turin in the coming days.

Taylor Fritz with a weak record against top 10 players

At least in the opening match between Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz, the odds are against the Californian. Betano offers quotes of 2.25 for the American’s victory, who ultimately always depends a little too much on his serve, which will be particularly difficult to bring onto the court against such a strong return player as the Russian.

If you still want to back the 27-year-old, who has only won 38.8 percent of all his singles matches against other top 10 players in his career, you can also take advantage of the Betano welcome bonus. New customers can get a 100% bonus up to €80 as well as a €20 free bet.

Daniil Medvedev – Taylor Fritz Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 1:0

The two players have only met each other once so far, with the duel dating back more than two years. In the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open 2022, Daniil Medvedev beat Taylor Fritz 2-0 (7-6 and 6-3), with Fritz at least forcing a tiebreak in the first set.

Daniil Medvedev – Taylor Fritz Tip

All in all, our prediction for the opening victory of the Russian leans towards Daniil Medvedev against Taylor Fritz, who not only has a significantly better win rate against top 10 players, but also was able to win the only encounter with the American 2-0. However, a completely clean victory is not to be expected in view of the Californian’s strong serve, which should enable him to decide a number of games quite quickly when serving. With that in mind, the match is likely to be quite long. The tendency to go to tiebreaks is also high.

Bottom line, we still expect the Russian’s experience to prevail in the end. Medvedev is, after all, one of the best returners in the ATP Tour and should pounce as soon as the Californian offers him something.

Daniil Medvedev against Taylor Fritz betting odds of 1.72 are available for tip 1, which we play with four units using the handy Betway app.