Can the Muscovite get his revenge late in the match?

After the tournament tree for the 137th men’s singles match at the Wimbledon Championships was published, most tennis fans around the world were certainly hoping for a clash between Wimbledon defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and world number one Jannik Sinner in this semi-final. However, an almost equal treat has emerged when it comes to the rematch of the 2023 semi-final between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz – we provide tips and odds for this cracker in this article

A year ago, the young Spaniard left nothing to be desired in the semi-final against the experienced Russian, sending the Muscovite home in three sets (6:3, 6:3 and 6:3). Just two years before that, however, it was Daniil Medvedev who beat the Spanish superstar 3-0 at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, which should not be completely ignored in the forecast for Daniil Medvedev against Carlos Alcaraz

The former world number one from Russia, who was not one of the big Wimbledon title favorites in the run-up to the tournament, sold himself extremely expensively over the course of the tournament and is now just one major victory away from his seventh Grand Slam tournament final. However, Carlos Alcaraz starts the first semi-final of the tournament with the momentum of twelve consecutive victories at the Wimbledon Championships. Our bias is therefore clearly in favor of the Spaniard.

Many eventualities – including constellations in which the supposed underdog wins – can be covered by betting that Daniil Medvedev will win a maximum of 20 matches in this semi-final. However, if you fancy the favored Spaniard, you can also use the handy Betway app to bet on Carlos Alcaraz winning either 3:1 or 3:0 with a handicap of -1.5 sets

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 5
Position in the seeding list: 5

The 28-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev has topped the ATP world rankings for a total of 16 weeks and has won an impressive 20 singles titles on the ATP Tour. However, the really big major titles are easy to list: in 2020, the Muscovite became the unofficial world champion at the ATP Finals. He won the US Open in 2021.

He also reached the finals of Grand Slam tournaments five other times, but lost out in these – most recently in the grand final of the 2024 Australian Open. The world number five has been waiting 14 months for another singles title on the ATP Tour

Can Daniil Medvedev get revenge for 2023?

However, if Daniil Medvedev wins against Carlos Alcaraz in the final, he would be just one win away from his second Grand Slam title at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

He has won 18 of his 25 singles matches at Wimbledon so far, but has never made it past the semi-finals. Exactly one year ago, the 28-year-old suffered a surprisingly clear 3-0 defeat to his current opponent from Spain in this round. Now it’s also about settling that score

Daniil Medvedev was wide awake in the decisive rallies

It is clear that Daniil Medvedev has what it takes to make it really difficult for the Spanish superstar if he brings the kind of tennis to the court over long stretches of this match that enabled him to bring the current world number one Jannik Sinner to his knees 3:2 in the semi-final.

In a fierce battle over the full distance of five sets, the Muscovite prevailed in the end in three hours and 54 minutes, although he had the worse performance data, particularly on serve. He played eleven double faults (Sinner only four), scored points with his first serve in only 76 percent of all cases (Sinner in 80 percent) and in 45 percent with his second serve (Sinner in 53 percent). The fact that it was still enough was also due to the fact that Medvedev won the decisive points, which again testifies to the Russian’s strong nerves, which he will now need in this semi-final.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seeding list: 3

Although 21-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz is only in his fifth consecutive year on the ATP Tour, he has already won three Grand Slam titles. He made his breakthrough at the US Open in 2022, before winning Wimbledon in 2023 and claiming overall victory at the French Open this year.

Now the man from El Palmar, Murcia, is about to reach his fourth Grand Slam final. His record on the time-honored turf of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club certainly speaks for itself. At Church Road, Carlito has won 16 of the 18 singles matches he has played

Positive record against Daniil Medvedev

The bookmakers’ odds for Daniil Medvedev against Carlos Alcaraz are still in the Spaniard’s favor, despite the fact that his Russian opponent has only lost twice at the Wimbledon Championships. In 2021, the 21-year-old was beaten 3-0 by the Muscovite at the London grass court Grand Slam.

Overall, Carlos Alcaraz leads the direct comparison against Daniil Medvedev with 4:2 victories. The Masters tournament in Indian Wells, where the world number three dispatched the Russian 2-0 in the final and secured one of two singles titles so far in 2024, is likely to have given him the confidence he needed

Carlos Alcaraz always loses three sets in a row

As the defending champion, Carlito has currently won twelve singles matches in a row in London, although it has to be said that he has had three slight wobbles in a row on his way to the semi-finals. The Spaniard dropped exactly one set against Frances Tiafoe (ATP 29), Ugo Humbert (ATP 16) and most recently Tommy Paul (ATP 13), always winning “only” 3:1.

Against the 13th-ranked player in the world from America, he was trailing 0:1, but then once again proved his resilience. Although he didn’t have the best day, as evidenced by the 37 unforced errors compared to just 36 winners, he earned an impressive 27 break points, with which he took eight service games from Tommy Paul – too many to seriously jeopardize the match with a strong rate of 63 percent of points won with his own second serve

Daniil Medvedev – Carlos Alcaraz Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 2:4

The two athletes have met six times so far and Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head with four wins. The Spaniard last defeated the Russian 2-0 in the final of the Indian Wells Masters 2024 and ended Daniil Medvedev’s run with a clean 3-0 victory in the semi-finals of the Wimbledon Championships a year ago

Daniil Medvedev – Carlos Alcaraz tip

The betting odds for Daniil Medvedev against Carlos Alcaraz clearly favor the Spaniard, who already recorded a very impressive 3:0 victory over his Russian challenger in the Wimbledon semi-finals a year ago. The Muscovite had only just eliminated the current world number one, Jannik Sinner, in the quarter-finals. However, on the way to the semi-finals, which did not go smoothly for either opponent, he wobbled a little more overall, which is why we generally agree with the best bookmakers’ assessment

The prediction that Daniil Medvedev will win a maximum of 20 games against Carlos Alcaraz is very interesting. This not only covers the Moscow player advancing in a similarly short match as at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships, when he dispatched Carlito 3:0, but also most constellations in which the Spaniard prevails in a match that is not overlong.

For Medvedev to win under 20.5 games, Intertops offers odds of 1.97, which we play with three out of ten units