Russian clash to kick off the red group at the ATP Finals

Before King Football dominates the action again and eyes turn to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the yellow felt ball takes centre stage this week

The ATP Finals of the best eight players will be played in Turin, with the preliminary round being a round robin system in which everyone plays against everyone in two groups of four. Two Russians will face each other on Monday afternoon to start off Group Red. In the duel Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev a bet on the victory of Medvedev is clearly favoured according to the current betting odds

Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also in the red group. Many tennis fans called this constellation of four the “group of death”. Because compared to the green group (Nadal, Auger-Aliassime, Ruud, Fritz), this quartet of four can be rated much higher. Three of the four players have already won the ATP finals, only Rublev has not yet. The 25-year-old Russian is considered a clear underdog, but he has the quality and playing intelligence to pose problems for any opponent.

After Daniil Medvedev has not been at his best in the last few weeks, the forecast for a handicap in favour of the world number seven is absolutely conceivable, at least in the duel between Medvedev and Rublev. The match will start at the Pala Alpitour in Turin on Monday at 1:30 p.m.

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Further up, Medvedev has not been attested top form in recent weeks, yet he won the 500 tournament title in the Austrian capital Vienna at the end of October. A few days later, however, he was eliminated from the Masters in Paris-Bercy in the first match against Australian Alex de Minaur. In 2022, Medvedev has a match record of 45 wins and 16 losses so far. With the exception of the 2020 Corona season, these are the fewest wins in a year. In addition to the title in Vienna, he also won in Los Cabos, Mexico.

Hall as a big advantage

Medvedev has had runaways in his game time and again this year and still conceded the odd defeat, which was by no means to be expected. In the very difficult red group with Djokovic and Tsitsipas, an opening win against his compatriot is a must, because with a defeat, the semi-finals are almost out of reach for the 2020 winner (then still in London).

Indoor hardcourt is undoubtedly Daniil Medvedev’s favourite surface. Hardly any other player on the tour knows how to set the pace indoors better than the new father of a healthy daughter. Before the Vienna triumph, he took a break not only because of the birth but also because of physical complaints. Despite some interruptions (was not allowed to compete in Wimbledon), the season was very energy-draining and performances at the highest level can no longer be expected over an entire match. This should therefore provide opportunities for his compatriot, and between Medvedev and Rublev odds of up to a 2.37 for three sets have value to offer.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Andrey Rublev is the only player in the red group who has not yet won the ATP Finals and has not yet won a Grand Slam title. Nevertheless, the 25-year-old has established himself among the world’s top tennis players in recent years and will be represented at the ATP Finals in Turin in 2022 for the third time in a row. In both appearances, he won a match and had to pull out of the preliminary round with two losses.

Four tournament wins in 2022

The bare numbers are even better for Rublev this season than for his compatriot. The 25-year-old has won a total of 49 matches (with 18 defeats). He also won titles in Marseille, Dubai, Belgrade and most recently in Gijon. However, the really big tournaments are not his great strength. This season, his last stop was in the quarter-finals at the latest.

Defeats against opponents who are below his qualities are relatively rare for him. In matches at eye level, nuances are decisive and it is difficult to make a prognosis. In matches against opponents who are one level above him, Rublev usually lacks consistency. Especially in the mental area, these players are still a step ahead of him, because Rublev can let a strong match slip out of his hands within just a few seconds.

In order to be able to celebrate at least one victory at the ATP Finals in 2022, an absolute gala performance is needed. However, this is difficult to imagine. However, a clear defeat at the start against his compatriot is not to be expected either. Therefore, the forecast for Medvedev against Rublev is for many games. The hall is considered a very fast surface anyway and breaks are relatively rare. At least 23 games (the line is at 22.5) are even conceivable in two sets.

Daniil Medvedev – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to Head: 5:1

The two Russians have now faced each other six times on the ATP Tour. Daniil Medvedev, who is one year older, has a clear lead in the direct comparison. The former world number one has won five of the six matches so far. Meddy” not only won the first five games against his compatriot, he did not even have to drop a set. Although the fourth and fifth games were relatively close, Rublev always lost out in the decisive situations. This changed in the last duel so far, game number six, in the semi-finals of Cincinnati 2021, which Rublev won.

Daniil Medvedev – Andrey Rublev Tip

A loss at the ATP Finals does not necessarily mean elimination, but with an opening defeat, advancing in the round robin system will be an extremely difficult task. In the duel between the two compatriots Medvedev and Rublev, Daniil Medvedev is the heavy favourite according to the odds, which is also justified by the direct comparison.

The bet on the regular victory of the favourite is not necessarily interesting, because Rublev is by no means without a chance. This is also the reason for our betting recommendation: between Medvedev and Rublev, the forecast on Rublev +1.5 sets has the best risk-reward ratio.