Does Rublev’s quarterfinal curse at Grand Slams continue?

No less than 24 of the last 26 Grand Slam tournaments have been won by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and the new star in the tennis sky, Carlos Alcaraz. Thus, there were only two players at all who were able to break into this sensational phalanx of top stars. One of them is Daniil Medvedev, who won the US Open in 2021, succeeding Dominic Thiem, who snatched the trophy at Flushing Meadows in 2020.

The former world number one from Russia is once again the hottest contender when it comes to making life difficult for Djokovic or Alcaraz on their way to winning the 2023 US Open title. Should the bet on the former Grand Slam champion pay off in Wednesday night’s clash between Medvedev and Rublev, he would meet the winner of the quarterfinal Alcaraz vs. Zverev in the semifinals that follow.

In the all-Russian comparison, the older of the two players certainly seems to have his nose in front. The leading bookmakers also give a clear prediction between Medvedev and Rublev in favor of the 27-year-old, who has at least lost one set less in the tournament so far and also clearly leads the head-to-head against the 25-year-old Rublev. And then there’s the Moscow native’s disastrous quarterfinal record at Grand Slam tournaments…

Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form

Daniil Medvedev is playing an extremely successful 2023 tennis year so far, with the 27-year-old Russian winning 54 of his 65 singles matches. At the Grand Slams, however, the Moscow native has been largely disappointing. If we exclude the semifinal appearance at Wimbledon, the former world number one was eliminated in round one at the unloved French Open and in round three at the Australian Open.

However, these disappointing results should not obscure the fact that the current world number three won the Masters tournaments in Miami and Rome and also reached the final in Indian Wells. In preparation for the US Open, however, Medvedev failed surprisingly early in Toronto and in Cincinnati, so that some experts removed the eccentric right-hander from their personal list of favorites for the last Grand Slam of the year. Wrongly so!

Medvedev loves the US Open

At the venue of his greatest career success to date, the 1.98 m giant, who has already earned more than 32 million dollars in prize money in his career, presented himself with his usual playing strength and consistency. In the four matches he has played, coach Gilles Cervara’s protégé has only lost two sets, one of them in a tie-break. In the round of 16 against Alex de Minaur, who is not to be underestimated, Medvedev was even trailing 0:1, only to then play himself into a real frenzy and sweep away the Australian 3:1.

The Russian scored 81% of all points when the first serve went into the court. Medvedev also won 15 of his 17 service games. Nevertheless, it didn’t feel as if the 27-year-old had to play his best tennis yet.

Since we still see room for improvement for the co-favorite, but at the same time weight the immense experience in highlight matches against the Rublev curse, the best approach in our eyes is to play the odds on the favorite winning between Medvedev and Rublev. Possibly even with a set handicap, because we don’t trust the two years younger Rublev to win more than one set against an in-form Medvedev.

Andrey Rublev – statistics & current form

Andrey Rublev is certainly one of the most likeable players on tour. On the court, however, the 25-year-old can become an “animal”. It’s not uncommon for emotions to run high, now and then the racket has to take the frustration out and various times the current number eight in the world takes himself out of the game with these antics. Admittedly, there has been an improvement in this respect in recent years.

However, there are no signs of improvement with regard to the Grand Slam curse of the Moscow native, which has already been hinted at. The right-hander has reached the quarterfinals of one of the four most important tennis tournaments of the year a total of eight times. Rublev has lost all eight quarterfinals! In 2023, the blond player once again reached the last eight at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Those who now believe in an end to the curse can play odds in the range of 3.10 for the success of the underdog between Medvedev and Rublev.

Rublev’s form curve is pointing upwards

While his upcoming opponent Medvedev still managed to win one or the other match in the preparation tournaments in the course of the US Open Series, Rublev lost his opening match in Toronto as well as in Cincinnati. Against Mackenzie McDonald and Emil Ruusuvuori, the 25-year-old won only one set, and that in a tiebreak.

However, the four matches won in New York should have given the former fifth in the world rankings, who, as mentioned, has never reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam, self-confidence. Especially against the background that with Monfils, Rinderknech and Draper three uncomfortable opponents could be beaten. However, the Russian always conceded a set and allowed himself minor weak phases, which could have a much more extreme effect on the Medvedev vs. Rublev forecast on Wednesday night.

Daniil Medvedev – Andrey Rublev Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

The two Russians have faced each other in eight matches on tour so far. Medvedev leads the record with six wins and two losses. The two Grand Slam duels were also won by the more experienced Medvedev. Both in 2020 at the US Open and a few months later at the Australian Open in 2021, the 27-year-old did not even drop a set against Rublev. Similar, by the way, to the last match to date, which Medvedev won outright in two straight sets in the Dubai final in early March.

Daniil Medvedev – Andrey Rublev tip

The decisive stage of the last Grand Slam of the year has arrived. The wheat has been separated from the chaff and yet three former winners of the tournament in New York are still in the draw. In addition to Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, this also applies to Daniil Medvedev, who is the clear favorite against Andre Rublev according to the betting odds.

We agree with this assessment 100% and are even of the opinion that a clear success with at least a two-set lead will result. Medvedev has been a bit more consistent in the tournament so far, has already won this Grand Slam 2021 and also has six wins from a total of eight direct duels against his younger compatriot.