Who will follow up on the opening win?

On Wednesday evening, the two winners of the first round clash in the Red Group of the ATP Finals. Although there have already been several constellations at the year-end tournament in which a player has failed despite winning twice in the preliminary round, the winner should have excellent chances of reaching the semi-finals. According to the oddsmakers, the bet on Daniil Medvedev against Alexander Zverev is more favorable for the Russian

Medvedev currently leads 10:7 against Sascha in the head-to-head. However, the German won the final at the Pala Alpitour in Turin two years ago with a commanding 2:0 victory over the Russian (6:4 and 6:4). Back then, he was crowned unofficial world champion for the second time in his career. However, the Muscovite also claimed this title once before in 2020. That makes it really difficult to predict the outcome of Daniil Medvedev’s match against Alexander Zverev

In any case, it is impressive how well the Pala Alpitour suits the German number one. Alexander Zverev not only celebrated a 2:1 victory over high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz in this year’s opening match, but has only lost one of his seven matches at the ATP Finals in Piedmont: a 1:2 defeat against his current opponent Daniil Medvedev in the 2021 round robin, for which he later took revenge in the aforementioned final (2:0).

Even back then, the German-Russian duel in the group stage went on for 35 intense games, which is why we see a lot of value in betting on a hard-fought match now as well. Against this background, the bet on over 22.5 games is very interesting, which could also work out in many constellations over two sets (for example 7:6 and 6:4)

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seeding list: 3

The 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev is currently taking part in the ATP Finals for the fifth time in a row. He has failed twice in the round robin, but twice reached the grand final, which he also won 2:1 against Dominic Thiem in 2020.

In 2021, however, the Muscovite was beaten 2:0 by his current opponent Alexander Zverev in the final, having previously defeated the German 2:1 in the preliminary round. Now his possible path beyond the round robin could once again lead via the Hamburg player

65 of the 81 singles matches won in the 2023 calendar year

Basically, Daniil Medvedev’s win against Alexander Zverev is also a good bet for the 27-year-old. The Russian has won ten of the 17 meetings with the German and goes into the final tournament of the year having won five singles titles in 2023.

However, the Muscovite won all five tournaments between February and May and has largely disappointed since reaching the final at the 2023 US Open. At the last two Masters tournaments in Shanghai and Paris, he only managed a single victory. However, with 65 wins from 81 singles matches, Medvedev’s annual record reads impressively

Without conceding a service game to win the opener 2:0

In his opening match against compatriot Andrey Rublev, the Russian also left nothing to be desired and celebrated an unchallenged 2:0 victory (6:4 and 6:2) on Monday evening, almost in the space of 92 minutes.

Daniil Medvedev was once again convincing on his own serve. Although only 56% of all first serves were received, the Muscovite did not concede a single service game. He fended off all seven of Rublev’s break points with nerves of steel and also scored points 50% of the time when he had to come over the second serve (83% on the first serve).

Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 7
Position in the seeding list: 7

The 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev has already won the ATP Finals twice in his career in 2018 and 2021. Last year, however, Sascha was unable to travel to the Pala Alpitour as defending champion because he suffered a serious injury at the 2022 French Open.

The road back to the top was also long and arduous for the Hamburg native, who took a long time to regain his old form. The shock was correspondingly great when the German twisted his ankle in the opening match against Carlos Alcaraz, which was reminiscent of the French Open match against Rafael Nadal a year and a half ago

Won six of his last seven matches at the ATP Finals

This time, however, the all-clear could be given. After Zverev promptly gave up his break in the first set of the opening match and even lost the tie-break, two strong sets in a row were enough to defeat Carlos Alcaraz 2:1.

Overall, the German number one in men’s tennis has won six of the last seven singles matches in the Pala Alpitour at the ATP Finals, which is why it could be interesting to bet on Sascha. AdmiralBet is offering odds of 2.80 on Daniil Medvedev against Alexander Zverev for the German to win.

54 of the 81 singles matches won in 2023

There was plenty of light and shade for the German in 2023, as evidenced by his annual tally of 54 wins compared to 27 defeats. However, after Sascha lost four consecutive matches against other top 10 players, the Hamburg native underlined in his opening match against the current world number two that he can beat any opponent on the ATP Tour on a good day.

However, in order to repeat his coup against Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev must continue to keep his error rate low (only five unforced errors against Carlos Alcaraz were a decisive factor in his first victory) and improve his returns. “Only” 33% return points won in the match against Alcaraz also show that he is dependent on Medvedev offering him something as well

Daniil Medvedev – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 10:7

There have already been 17 meetings between the two athletes and Daniil Medvedev leads the direct comparison with a total of ten wins. This is the fifth time the two players have met at the ATP Finals, with both athletes recording two wins each. In 2021, the Russian first beat Alexander Zverev 2:1 in the preliminary round before the two players met again in the final, which the German then won 2:0

Daniil Medvedev – Alexander Zverev tip

Both players can take a big step towards the semifinals with another win in the complicated group, which also includes one of the ATP Finals 2023 favorites, Carlos Alcaraz. The bookmakers have the odds on Daniil Medvedev against Alexander Zverev in favor of the Russian, who was already beaten 2-0 by his German opponent in the final of the 2021 ATP Finals at the Pala Alpitour in Turin

The two old acquaintances, who are facing each other for the 18th time in a singles match on the ATP Tour, are often very intense. Accordingly, the forecast for Daniil Medvedev against Alexander Zverev is that the match will be long rather than short