Can de Minaur upset the Russian again?

Daniil Medvedev has already reached the final of the US Open twice and also managed to win the prestigious hard-court Grand Slam tournament in New York City once in 2021. Now, however, the Russian clashes with a recent nemesis. The world number three has lost two singles matches in a row against Alex de Minaur recently, which makes it all the more difficult to tip the outcome of this round of 16 match when it comes to Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur.

After all, the man from Down Under just won a straight 2-0 quarterfinal victory over the Russian at the 2023 Canadian Open Series in Toronto (7-6, 7-5). The first of the two hard-fought sets went into a tiebreak, which could have ended differently. Against this background, it is very interesting to predict that at least one set of Daniil Medvedev against Alex de Minaur will be decided in a tiebreak as well.

Daniil Medvedev has already had to go into a tiebreak twice in the tournament on his way to the round of 16. However, just like Alex de Minaur, the world number three has only lost one set. In the third round, both players won a relatively smooth 3-0 victory. Consequently, neither of the two athletes lacks momentum.

A close match is to be expected, which could also come to a certain length. A coherent alternative to betting on over 0.5 tiebreaks is therefore betting on over 37.5 games.

Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 3
Position in the seedings: 3

Daniil Medvedev, a 27-year-old Russian, is not only a former overall winner at the 2021 US Open, which he remarkably won 3-0 in the final against Novak Djokovic, but also a player who likes to polarize.

In the course of the tournament so far, the Muscovite has once again raised eyebrows. After leading 2:0 in his second round match against Christopher O’Connell (ATP 69), his Australian opponent was treated by a team of doctors and then won the third set after improving his performance. Medvedev then had the same team of doctors arrive and sarcastically demanded to get the same as his opponent.

Strong US Open record of 26:5

In the end, the Russian won the fourth set. However, because of actions like this, few spectators and even opponents on the ATP Tour are neutral towards him. Some love him, others hate him. It’s a role the Russian likes to play when he realizes that his opponents are getting involved in any mind games.

However, the fact that the 27-year-old is also a gifted tennis player and is not ranked third in the ATP world rankings for nothing is also evident from his US Open record. In Flushing Meadows, Medvedev not only won the men’s singles in 2021, but a total of 26 of his 31 completed singles matches.

Won 52 of 63 singles matches in 2023

In his 3-0 win over Sebastian Báez (ATP 32), Medvedev also eliminated a player who had previously gone unbeaten in twelve consecutive singles matches in just two and a half hours. The odds are now also clearly in favor of Daniil Medvedev against Alex de Minaur, who has 52 wins from 63 singles matches in 2023 and has already won five singles titles.

But: the Muscovite has lost two singles matches in a row against the Australian most recently – including a 0:2 from the quarterfinals of the 2023 Canadian Open, where Medvedev had just beaten de Minaur at the beginning of August…

Alex de Minaur – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 13
Position in the seedings: 13

The 24-year-old Australian Alex de Minaur has been regularly competing in the four Grand Slam tournaments since 2017. He has now made 24 appearances. In the process, he made it to the round of 16 for the sixth time at the US Open in 2023.

However, the player from Down Under’s record in the round of 16 does not exactly read exhilarating. Only in one of the previous five cases did the journey continue afterwards in the quarterfinals – 2020 here at the US Open.

Only dropped one set on the way to the round of 16

This year, the Sydney man, who already played a stellar US Open Series in the summer and advanced to the final at the Canadian Open after wins over Fritz (ATP 9) and Medvedev (ATP 3), among others, made it to the round of 16 with comparative ease.

Only in his opening match against the Kazakh qualifier Timofey Skatov (ATP 129) did Alex de Minaur somewhat surprisingly drop the second set. However, this circumstance did not change anything in the sovereign 3:1 victory. Most recently, the Australian even dispatched Chile’s Nicolás Jarry (ATP 25) 3-0 in just 106 minutes (6:1, 6:3 and 6:2).

Won six of eleven matches against top-10 players in 2023

Consistently, given the 24-year-old’s strong form, it should not be categorically ruled out that Daniil Medvedev will be tipped to progress against Alex de Minaur, which would see the Australian reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the second time in his career.

Despite an improvement in recent weeks, when he reached not only the final of the Canadian Open but also the final of the Los Cabos Open in Mexico, his annual record still has room for improvement. After all, his 36 singles victories have been offset by 18 defeats. However, Alex de Minaur has won six of his eleven duels with top 10 players so far in 2023.

Daniil Medvedev – Alex de Minaur Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 4:2

There have been a total of six meetings between the two players so far and with four wins, Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head comparison overall. However, the Russian has won the first four duels with the Australian so far and most recently had to concede defeat to Alex de Minaur twice in a row – including just recently in the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open with 0:2 (6:7 and 5:7).

Daniil Medvedev – Alex de Minaur Tip

Betting sites are predicting a win for the Russian between Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur, which is quite a bold assessment. After all, the Australian has won the last two matches in a row against the world number three, whom he just defeated 2-0 in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Canadian Open (7-6 and 7-5). The strong Australian’s victory in Flushing Meadows cannot be ruled out either.

All the more coherent are bets that avoid the question of who will ultimately win a ticket to the quarterfinals, where Andrey Rublev could possibly be waiting. The most coherent bet is that at least one set in this match will go into a tiebreaker.