Will Sinner give the favourite a run for his money?
After Jannik Sinner, of all people, replaced the injured Matteo Berrettini at the ATP Finals, which were being held in Italy for the first time, things got emotional at the Pala Alpitour in Turin on Tuesday. Sinner beat Hurkacz 2-0 to become the youngest player in 21 years to win a match at the ATP Finals.
Now the player from Sesto would like to go one better, but not only needs another win to reach the semifinals, he also needs help from Hurkacz, who would have to win against Zverev. In the duel between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner, the odds are in favour of the South Tyrolean.
So far, Jannik Sinner has lost both duels with Daniil Medvedev. However, as the first player since 2011 to win a match at the ATP Finals, the local hero has nothing to lose. We expect a correspondingly spirited performance, in which Sinner could well take a set from the Russian world number two.
We see the greatest value in Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner in the bet that the match will reach a certain length and require more than 22.5 games before the winner is decided.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 2nd
Position in the seedings: 2.
The 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev has already won his first two matches at the ATP Finals. He only won 2-1 against Zverev and Hurkacz and even had to go into a tiebreak in the long deciding set against the German.
Due to Berrettini’s withdrawal and the new group constellation, the world number two is nevertheless the early winner of the group. Accordingly, the Russian can theoretically take things slowly in the last group match.
Already a year ago with perfect group stage
This is the first stage win for Medvedev, who came to Turin as the defending champion and won all five matches at last year’s 2020 ATP Finals with a total of just two sets to spare.
Last year, the world number two already left no stone unturned in the third round. Instead of taking it easy after winning the group against Schwartzman, who had been eliminated early, he finished off the Argentine 2-0. Once again, Medvedev is unlikely to have the semifinals in mind when he plays Sinner.
Won 24 of last 27 singles
Finally, the Russian superstar could gold-plate a spectacular season-ending run in Turin. In New York, the 25-year-old crowned himself Grand Slam champion for the first time in his career with a 3-0 final victory over Novak Djokovic. In total, he has won 24 of his last 27 singles matches since the start of the summer hard court season.
No wonder, then, that the world number two is clearly favoured by bettors.
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 11th
Position in the seedings: 9.
The 20-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner is experiencing a bit of a Cinderella story in his home country. First of all, the South Tyrolean missed the qualification for the ATP Finals by just 260 points, which were missing Casper Ruud in the ranking at the end.
Nevertheless, the man from Sesto was readily available as the first substitute in case one of the eight seeded players dropped out. The fact that he came into the tournament in place of his compatriot Matteo Berrettini and then won the emotional match against Hurkacz in front of his home crowd had something magical about it.
First back-to-back since 2011 with win at ATP Finals
After all, before the ATP Finals, Sinner had Hurkacz to thank for his worst defeat to date.
The Italian lost 2-0 to the Pole in the final of the Miami Masters in spring 2021 and thus missed out on his first major title. Incidentally, this also cost Sinner the points with which he and not Hurkacz would have been safely qualified for the ATP Finals.
Nevertheless, the year 2021 was successful for the man from Sesto. The 20-year-old, who is not only the first returnee since 2011 to win a match at the ATP Finals, but also the youngest player in 21 years to manage a victory at the World Championships, won four singles titles and won 46 of his 67 singles matches this year.
Small chances of reaching the semifinals despite victory
The chances of the fairytale continuing and the Sesto player accompanying his already qualified Russian opponent to the semi-finals are nevertheless slim.
The Italian would not only need a win over the world number two, but would also have to hope for help from Hurkacz, who would have to beat Zverev. All the more reason for the South Tyrolean to enjoy the atmosphere once more and play his best tennis. If he succeeds in doing that, the tip for Daniil Medvedev against Jannik Sinner should be very likely at over 22.5 games.
Daniil Medvedev – Jannik Sinner Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 2:0
Twice both athletes have faced each other so far and in both cases Daniil Medvedev was victorious. Yet both matches have some significance as they go back to indoor hard court, namely ATP Marseille, where the Russian won 2-1 in 2020 and 2-0 in 2021 against the Sesto native.
Daniil Medvedev – Jannik Sinner Tip
When it comes to Daniil Medvedev against Jannik Sinner, the prediction goes to the world number two from Russia, who already a year ago didn’t let up a bit in the last group match despite winning the group for sure. This year, however, the spectators will once again play a role, and their hearts will naturally beat for the Italian runner-up, who, regardless of his slim chances of reaching the semifinals, will of course want to present himself in a decent manner.
We do believe that the experienced Russian, who has already won all five matches at the ATP Finals in 2020, will win in the end. However, we assume that the South Tyrolean will demand everything from him, which is why we are betting on at least 23 matches.
