Does Gauff fail due to huge expectations?

It has now been six years since a US American was able to secure the coveted trophy at the last Grand Slam of the season at Flushing Meadows. At the 2017 US Open, the then outstanding Sloane Stephens triumphed in the all-American final against Madison Keys. Now, Cori Gauff, just 19, looks to follow in those big footsteps and reach the final at her home Grand Slam.

The young lady from Atlanta still has one hurdle to jump to get into a GS title match for the second time in her career. That hurdle is a tough one, though, as she faces a reigning French Open finalist who has played a terrific season so far. Nevertheless, in the first semifinal between Gauff and Muchova, betting on the local heroine will bring lower odds.

In addition, the prediction on the outcome of the match between Gauff and Muchova also depends on the fact that the two faced each other in the Cincinnati final just two weeks ago. At that time, Gauff prevailed in two sets. In the night from Thursday to Friday, however, the cards will be reshuffled. The pressure situation is completely different and also the home bonus does not necessarily have to be an advantage for the hopeful youngster from the US state of Georgia…

Coco Gauff – statistics & current form

Not until March 2024 will Cori, called Coco, Gauff celebrate her 20th birthday. She would like to do this already as a Grand Slam winner. The chances are definitely there. At her home Grand Slam in New York, the youngster needs only two more victories to write American sports history. Only a certain Serena Williams would have been younger in the Open era when she won her first US Open triumph (1999).

However, there is still a rocky road to travel before then, but the exceptional talent need have no fear of that, provided she conjures up the same performances on the hard court of Arthur Ashe Stadium as she has recently. In the quarterfinals, for example, Gauff defeated Jelena Ostapenko in two incredibly smooth sets, 6-0 and 6-2, but she also benefited from an almost unbelievable number of simple errors on the Latvian’s part.

Gauff has already dropped three sets in five matches

During the course of the tournament, it also became clear that weak phases were part of the 19-year-old’s game. In three of her first four matches, the lady from Atlanta dropped a set, against the German Laura Siegemund as well as the Belgian Elise Mertens, Coco was even trailing 0:1 before she was able to raise the level again. Considering these statistics, it is certainly also a justifiable approach to check the odds on at least one set win for the Czech between Gauff and Muchova.

Nevertheless, it is absolutely understandable that the US player, who is eight years younger, is the favorite in this first semifinal. Gauff won two of the three preparatory tournaments for this Grand Slam and has an impressive record of 33 wins and six losses on hard courts this season.

It should not be forgotten, however, that the world number six has lost some important matches in the late stages of major tournaments in the recent past. In 2022, she reached the quarterfinals of the US Open, lost the final of the French Open last year, and also lost several round of 16 matches in Melbourne and London, despite being the favorite. It’s quite possible that the increasing pressure will once again play havoc with the former world number four in New York.

Karolina Muchová – statistics & current form

There are not many active players on the tour who have such an impressive Grand Slam record as Karolina Muchova. Although the Czech has so far failed to score a major coup in the form of a title win, she has already reached at least the quarterfinals of all four Grand Slams. At the Australian Open, the French Open and the US Open, she even made it to the semifinals or further.

It is therefore statistically proven that the most important tournaments of the year suit the 27-year-old, who has had to struggle with a number of injuries during her career and was only able to play 24 matches in 2021, for example. Muchova is considered to have very strong nerves, is experienced and has a cool head. Exactly these attributes give hope for a surprise in the night from Thursday to Friday. In our eyes, the odds on the success of the underdog between Gauff and Muchova are too high and accordingly attractive.

Muchova so far without fault

Similar to Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova also presented herself in strong form in the run-up to this US Open, reaching the Cicinnati final. On the way there, she had to play a few three-set matches, but always kept the upper hand. One such match was against Aryna Sabalenka, who is still considered by the leading bookmakers to be the hottest contender for the title at Flushing Meadows.

In the course of the US Open so far, the Czech has even made a stronger impression than her American opponent. Only in her three-set win over the strong Chinese Wang did the 27-year-old, who can dictate rallies from the baseline while allowing herself few errors, have to go the full distance. The quarterfinal against Sorana Cirstea, meanwhile, was a demonstration of power par excellence. In the 6:3 and 6:0 victory, Muchova was also able to save her strength for the intense semi-final.

Coco Gauff – Karolina Muchová Direct comparison / H2H-balance

For only the second time, the two current top ten players will face each other on Friday night. The first match, as mentioned, is a good two weeks in the past. At the end of March, Coco Gauff won the final of Cincinnati smoothly in two sets. However, the Czech also had one break point more then, but failed to reward herself for her courageous performance. Ahead of the next meeting between Gauff and Muchova, we predict that it will once again be a duel between equals.

Coco Gauff – Karolina Muchová Tip

In the recent past, it has been rather rare for two players from the top ten to face each other in a Grand Slam semifinal. At the 2023 US Open, that is exactly what has happened. In the night from Thursday to Friday, it comes to the highly anticipated duel Gauff against Muchova. According to betting odds, the US American holds all the trumps in her own hand.

However, we are far from underestimating the Czech underdog. Muchova is more experienced, has already won some important matches at Grand Slam level at this late stage and has also shown great performances in the tournament so far. The 2023 French Open finalist only dropped a single set. In comparison, Gauff had to go the full distance in three of five matches.

Although the only 19-year-old won two of three preparatory tournaments at Flushing Meadows and will definitely be supported by the home fans at Arthur Ashe Stadium, we are not sure if she is up to the high pressure yet. Everyone expects her to reach the final. That could become an obstacle.

Apart from that, Muchova stood up to her younger opponent very well in the Cincinnati final and could have won at least one set if she had made better use of her break points. We therefore trust the Czech to pull off a surprise and are betting on the games handicap (+3.5) between Gauff and Muchova in favor of the world number ten. The top odds are 1.77 and are played with six units