Will the Djoker draw level with Roger Federer?

The ranks have thinned at the 53rd staging of the ATP Finals, with Casper Ruud and Novak Djokovic remaining in the grand final. While the Norwegian is on the verge of the first Major title of his young career, the Serbian superstar reached the final of the year-end tournament for the eighth time in his career, where he could now equal Roger Federer in the all-time best with his sixth overall win.

Practically everything speaks for the tip on the tournament victory of the Serb in Casper Ruud against Novak Djokovic, who has already played the Norwegian three times and won all three matches outright with 2:0. Curiously, all three matches took place in Italy – one even a year ago in Turin’s Pala Alpitour at the ATP Finals 2021.

It should be noted, however, that the Djoker has looked quite vulnerable of late. Although Nole won all four singles matches on his way to the final, he also gave up two service games in the semi-final against Taylor Fritz. He could be in danger of doing the same against the Norwegian, who is so strong on returns, which is why Casper Ruud’s prediction of a close match against Novak Djokovic is quite reasonable.

In the end, however, we believe that the 35-year-old’s experience will prevail. We are betting that the Serb will win the ATP Finals with a three or four game lead.

Casper Ruud – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 4
Position in the seedings: 3

The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud made his debut at the ATP Finals a year ago when he lost his group match against his current opponent Novak Djokovic at the Pala Alpitour, but still reached the semifinals with two wins from the other two matches.

There was the end of the line for the man from Oslo. Nevertheless, he was able to carry the momentum into 2022, where Casper Ruud reached a total of three major tournament finals. However, neither at the two Grand Slams in Roland Garros and Flushing Meadows nor at the Miami Masters was it enough to win the title.

Lost five of last nine singles matches

Now the 23-year-old, who won just three minor tournaments from the ATP Tour 250 category in 2022, is looking to finally claim his first Major title at his fourth attempt. Casper Ruud could then call himself world champion for a year – as the first Norwegian ever and the first Scandinavian since the Swede Stefan Edberg (1989).

However, the odds are clearly against Casper Ruud against Novak Djokovic, who has not only lost all three singles matches against the Serbian high-flyer. Things have also not been overly convincing for the Oslo player of late, who has lost five of his last nine singles despite his three wins in Turin.

42% of all returns in the semifinals converted into points

After two hard-fought victories in the round robin against Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud was made remarkably easy in the semifinals. Also because his opponent Andrey Rublev had a terrible day and could not get his own serve going, the Norwegian won easily 2:0.

In the meantime, the player from Oslo won nine games in a row and, moreover, scored in 42% of all cases when the Russian served. Should the Serb also offer him something, he should certainly be there. Without the Djoker’s help, however, it will be difficult for the man with one of the most varied but also least powerful service games in the field.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & Current Form

Current world ranking: 8
Position in the seedings: 7

The 35-year-old Serb Novak Djokovic barely qualified for the ATP Finals as world number eight. However, the fall in the rankings was not due to a recent slump in performance. Rather, the Djoker, who was not only not allowed to play in the Australian Open in 2022 but also missed all major tournaments in the USA, lacked the opportunities to shine.

Nole finally secured Grand Slam title number 21 at the Wimbledon Championships. Most recently, he took his total number of ATP Tour singles titles to 90 with two tournament victories in Tel Aviv and Astana – ten times as many as his opponent in today’s final, Casper Ruud.

Won 24 of last 25 singles matches

While the Serb certainly looked vulnerable, he still won all four singles at the ATP Finals, continuing his recent run accordingly. Novak Djokovic has 24 wins from his last 25 singles matches – not counting his performance at the Laver Cup.

At the year-end tournament, the 35-year-old could now even draw level with record winner Roger Federer if Casper Ruud’s tip against Novak Djokovic pans out to his sixth overall victory.

Nervous as ever in the semi-finals

The 21-time Grand Slam winner showed his nerves as strong as ever in the semifinals. The Djoker won both sets against Taylor Fritz in a tie-break to win 2:0, and in the second set he even managed the important break in the last moment when his opponent was already serving to equalise the set.

Admittedly, the former world number one also surrendered two service games. But football fan Djokovic, who is competing with the Serbian team in the 2022 World Cup Group G, ultimately jumped again just as high as he had to. A quality that should also be to the 35-year-old’s advantage in the final.

Casper Ruud – Novak Djokovic Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:3

There have been three meetings between the two athletes so far and Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head comparison with 3-0 victories. In all three matches – including a duel in the preliminary round of the ATP Finals 2021 – the Djoker remained without dropping a set.

Casper Ruud – Novak Djokovic Tip

Of course, the clear “head to head” comparison of Casper Ruud against Novak Djokovic also influences the prediction. However, recent form also points clearly in the direction of the Serb, who has won 24 of his last 25 singles matches, while his Norwegian challenger alone has lost five of his last nine singles matches. The five-time overall winner of the ATP Finals is therefore clearly favoured going into his eighth final at the year-end tournament.

Although Casper Ruud has repeatedly defied the underdog role, we don’t trust him to pull off the big coup against the highly decorated Serb. There is a lot to be said for the Djoker jumping a little higher again in the end and winning three or four more games.