Who will be the new world number one?
The ranks have thinned and a thoroughly surprising final has emerged in the 142nd men’s singles of the US Open, with neither defending champion Daniil Medvedev nor 22-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal making it into the final. Instead, Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz will now clash. The winner will not only win his Grand Slam but will also become the new world number one.
Both athletes will face each other in a Major final for the second time in 2022 – curiously also in the USA. Most recently, the young Spaniard beat the Norwegian 2:0 in the final of the Miami Masters. That’s why the odds are now swinging in favour of the Spaniard in the run-up to the final between Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz.
However, Casper Ruud has the experience of being in a Grand Slam final ahead of his opponent. The Norwegian just reached the final of the French Open at Roland Garros, but had no chance against clay court king Rafael Nadal. All the more reason for the 23-year-old to seize his chance this time.
We expect a hot fight between two players from the new generation. A quick decision in three sets seems unlikely, which is why we find the greatest value in Casper Ruud against Carlos Alcaraz in a bet on over 39.5 games.
Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 7
Position in the seedings: 5
The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud has already celebrated his first successes on the ATP Tour in the last two years. Since his first title at the ATP Buenos Aires 2020, things have gone steadily uphill.
In the meantime, the man from Oslo has already won a total of nine tournaments, although he has only won small competitions. In 2022 alone, he triumphed again in Buenos Aires as well as in Geneva and Gstaad.
44 of the 59 singles won in 2022
At Major level, it would now be the biggest success for the 23-year-old.
After all, the Norwegian missed out on the title in both the Miami Masters final and the French Open final this year. Nevertheless, his singles record is impressive. Casper Ruud won 44 of 59 singles matches played in 2022.
It should be noted, however, that the Oslo native is usually clearly focused on clay courts, which is why his strong run in Flushing Meadows comes as a surprise. Already in round three against local hero Thomas Paul, a 3:2 win after a total of 55 games could have been the end of the line, before Casper Ruud left little to be desired against Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov.
Strong rate with the second serve in the semifinals
It was against the Russian that the Norwegian shone most recently in a 3-1 win with a remarkable service game. The 23-year-old converted a full 83% of his first serves into points, while he also scored on his second serve in 23 of 39 cases. He only offered his opponent five break points in the entire match.
If he can bring these numbers to the court again, he will at least make it difficult for the favoured Spaniard. This also speaks for following the tip of a rather long final for Casper Ruud against Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 4
Position in the seedings: 3
The 19-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has already made history at this year’s US Open. At the most important tennis tournament in New York City, the man from El Palmar is the first teenager since Pete Sampras (1990) to reach the final.
At the entire Grand Slam level, he is even the first under-20 finalist since his idol Rafael Nadal at the 2005 French Open. Now he could even become the youngest world number one of all time and break Lleyton Hewitt’s record.
Won 50 of 59 singles matches in 2022
While the impressive year Carlos Alcaraz has put on the floor so far clearly speaks in the 19-year-old’s favour. However, with all these possible records and the chance to not only win a Grand Slam, but also become the world number one, comes incredible pressure.
Pressure, however, that the Spaniard has been able to withstand several times this year. Carlos Alcaraz has already won four tournaments in 2022, including two major titles at Masters level in Miami in April and in Madrid in May. All in all, his record for the year is an impressive 50 wins against only nine losses.
Eleven unused break chances in the semis
If the talented young star, who was the first player born after 2000 to reach a Grand Slam final, can defy the pressure again now, he is the clear favourite. The betting companies also see it that way.
Even the close semi-final, in which the 19-year-old missed eleven break chances against local hero Frances Tiafoe, had to go over five sets and benefited primarily from his opponent’s poor service rate (Tiafoe put only 47% of all first serves into the field), showed that Carlos Alcaraz is far from untouchable.
Casper Ruud – Carlos Alcaraz Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 0:2
Twice the two players have faced each other so far, and on both occasions Carlos Alcaraz prevailed outright 2-0 – most recently in the final of the Miami Masters 2022.
Casper Ruud – Carlos Alcaraz Tip
When it comes to Casper Ruud against Carlos Alcaraz, the prediction goes in the direction of the young Spaniard, who has the edge in practically all relevant performance data. The 19-year-old won more singles matches and titles in 2022 and has even already won his first two major tournaments, while his Norwegian opponent reached the French Open final but has only triumphed in minor tournaments so far.
It should be noted, however, that Carlos Alcaraz benefited from a poor service rate of his opponent in the semifinals, while Casper Ruud’s serves were one of his great strengths. This also suggests that it could be a long evening in the final
