Can Sascha stop the rising Norwegian?

The 96-strong field at the Miami Open 2022 has now dwindled to eight remaining athletes who have made it to the quarter-finals. Here, Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev, among others, will face off in a duel between two players from the current top 10 of the ATP world rankings. The winner will then have a good chance of reaching the final against either Jannik Sinner or Francisco Cerúndolo.

Naturally, all eyes will be on the reigning world champion Alexander Zverev who, after a shaky start, has recently recorded two commanding 2-0 victories in a row. Consequently, in the run-up to the quarter-final between Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev, the odds are swinging in the direction of the German.

However, Casper Ruud has also sold himself very dearly so far. The Norwegian celebrated three easy 2-0 wins on his way to the quarter-finals and surrendered a total of just 15 games – a whole ten games less than Alexander Zverev. The supposed outsider primarily scored points with his strong service game, which should also be difficult for Sascha to break.

Accordingly, there is a lot of value in Casper Ruud’s betting against Alexander Zverev that at least one set will remain break-free, after which the match will go into a tie-break

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 8
Position in the seedings: 6

So far in 2022, 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud has been able to build on his strong previous year. In the 2021 season, the shooting star from Oslo secured five singles titles on the ATP Tour, which also earned him a place at the ATP Finals, where he reached the semifinals.

The world number eight has already won his first singles title in Buenos Aires in the new year, and he would now like to continue this success at Masters level.

First four career wins against Top 10 players

The 23-year-old has yet to hit the big time. Despite already winning seven singles titles, Casper Ruud has never won a major tournament in his young career. Apart from the aforementioned semi-final of the ATP Finals 2021, he has reached three other semi-finals at Masters tournaments, in which he also always ended up.

Now the Norwegian is aiming for Masters semifinal number four, for which, however, he has to get rid of an established top 10 player. That this will be a big hurdle is shown by his record against opponents who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of the match. Ruud won only four of 19 such matches.

89% of all service games in 2022 converted

An important key to his success might be his tenacious service. The 1.83-metre tall athlete is by no means a giant on serve and is best suited to the slower clay court. Nonetheless, he has served 89% of all service games so far in 2022.

If he continues to score reliably against the German and leaves little to be desired, his fifth win against a top-10 player is by no means out of the question.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seedings: 2

The 24-year-old German Alexander Zverev is currently finding his way back to old strength in Miami and can be happy about a small jump after his sovereign 2-0 victory over Thanasi Kokkinakis in the round of 16.

Regardless of the outcome of the tournament in Miami, Sascha will move past Rafael Nadal in the next update of the ATP world rankings thanks to the points for reaching the quarter-finals and climb to third place in the table for the first time since November 2017.

Turning the tide in a complicated year so far?

With this, the German is steering the current season back on track.

So far, his year 2022 has been marked by several setbacks, such as the Australian Open exit against Denis Shapovalov, the first-round exit in Indian Wells or the missed tournament win against Alexander Bublik in Montpellier.

Not to mention his freak-out in Acapulco, which has given the reigning world champion and gold medallist at the 2021 Olympic Games an additional image hit.

For the 20th time in a quarter-final of a Masters tournament

It is all the more pleasing that the 24-year-old is convincing on the court in Miami, where he even reached the final in 2018. In the round of 16, Sascha didn’t let anything go to waste on his own serve. The German did not have to fend off a single break point, and one break of his own was enough in both sets to take a 2-0 lead (6:4 and 6:4).

If Casper Ruud can serve well again now, his chances of reaching the semifinals against Alexander Zverev are very good. After all, the reigning world champion has much more experience and will be in the quarter-finals of a Masters tournament for the 20th time in his career on Thursday.

Casper Ruud – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:2

The balance is also in favour of the German, who has won both his previous two matches against Casper Ruud with 2:0. The last time both athletes faced each other was in the quarter-finals of the Paris Masters 2021.

Casper Ruud – Alexander Zverev Tip

With Casper Ruud against Alexander Zverev, the prediction goes in the direction of the German, who has an incredible weapon on his side with his almost unbreakable serve that can single-handedly win him matches. Sascha showed that most recently in the commanding round of 16, in which his Australian opponent did not manage a single break point.

However, Casper Ruud also knows how to serve. The Norwegian surrendered only 11% of all service games in 2022. There is therefore much to suggest that there will be at least one set between the two athletes in which the match will go into a tie-break after six service games each have been won.