Will the heavy underdog fight back?

Overall, Carlos Alcaraz has lived up to his role as favorite in all form so far. With only one lost set, the Spaniard advanced confidently to the round of 16 of the US Open 2023, where he will now meet one of the surprises of the tournament so far. Matteo Arnaldi reached the round of the best 16 players at Flushing Meadows on his debut. But here, with Carlos Alcaraz against Matteo Arnaldi, the betting on the defending champion advancing is practically without alternative.

Though the young Italian has increasingly shown up this year and made up ground in the rankings, he has only played 26 singles matches on the ATP Tour in his entire career (13 wins and 13 losses each). His lack of experience alone is likely to be the 22-year-old’s undoing in the end. The forecast for Carlos Alcaraz against Matteo Arnaldi for the quarterfinal of the Spanish high-flyer is accordingly clear.

The betting companies expect an extremely one-sided match, which is certainly likely in the end. Only Daniel Evans has been able to take a set from the world number one so far in the tournament. Nevertheless, challenger Matteo Arnaldi has nothing to lose in this round of 16 and is guaranteed to take advantage when he has the chance to score points.

From a value point of view, it makes the most sense to bet that the Italian will win at least nine games even if he loses in three sets. By the way, this bet also covers any surprising set win by the glaring underdog.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 1
Position in the seedings: 1

Although 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz will lose his leading position in the ATP world rankings to Novak Djokovic after the US Open, regardless of the outcome of the tournament. Nevertheless, the youngster will continue to break record after record in 2023.

The shooting star from El Palmar has already won a whopping six tournaments on the ATP Tour this season, including the two Major titles in Indian Wells and Madrid as well as the second Grand Slam title of his career, which he won in Wimbledon after an epic final against the Djoker (3:2).

Won 14 of the 15 singles matches at the US Open

Meanwhile, Flushing Meadows was where the Spaniard’s career really got rolling a year ago, winning a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the 2022 US Open. The 20-year-old, who has always reached at least the quarterfinals in his two previous appearances at the major tennis tournament in New York City, is looking to build on that momentum this year.

Two quick wins propelled him swiftly into the third round, where he then wobbled a little for the first time. In the end, however, he lost the third set against Daniel Evans. The 3:1 victory was already the 14th singles match won by Carlos Alcaraz in the 15th completed singles at the US Open.

Won 56 of 62 singles matches in 2023

By reaching the round of 16, in which Carlos Alcaraz against Matteo Arnaldi the odds are clearly swinging in the direction of the world number one, the youngster has already won 56 singles matches in 2023, with just six defeats to his name.

The key to his recent success has been his almost unbreakable second serve. If the Spaniard didn’t score directly with the first serve for once, he managed to win 70% of his points with the second serve even in the first reasonably close match against Daniel Evans, while he himself took the point from the Briton in 58% of all cases in which Evans had to come over the second serve.

Matteo Arnaldi – statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 61
Position in the seedings: unseeded

The 22-year-old Italian Matteo Arnaldi played exclusively on the ITF Junior Tour until 2020, where he made it to just 22nd in the rankings. Even in a regular Grand Slam participation in the boys’ singles, he never got past the second round.

All the more surprising is the fact that the man from Sanremo promptly made it to the round of 16 on his debut in the men’s singles at the US Open. A success that will also be reflected in the rankings. In the virtual world rankings, the current number 61 has already climbed to number 47.

Push into the top 50 of the ATP world rankings

Following this, the Italian, who has played just 26 singles matches so far in his career on the ATP Tour (13 wins and 13 losses each), will definitely be heard from a lot in the future. After all, reaching the top 50 of the ATP world rankings will open more doors to tournaments for him.

It has to be said that he was initially quite lucky to reach the third round. First round opponent Jason Kubler (ATP 87) was injured, before the second round match against Arthur Fils (ATP 48), which Arnaldi ultimately won 3:2, could have gone the other way. Both players ended up winning exactly 169 points.

Only 16 unforced errors in the third round

All experts therefore assumed that the 22-year-old would go down without a fight in the third round, especially as he was facing an opponent from the seeded list for the first time there. Against Cameron Norrie (ATP 16), however, the Italian showed an explosion of performance and won 3-0 in less than two hours.

In the round of 16 between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi, it will be interesting to see whether the Ligurian can once again avoid going to the wall. In view of the fact that he played very concentrated against Norrie with 37 winners against just 16 unforced errors and offered little, he should not be awestruck in his first match against a reigning world number one, but be able to score one or two points.

Carlos Alcaraz – Matteo Arnaldi Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:0

There has never been a rated singles match between the two athletes on the ATP Tour before. Accordingly, there is no head to head data available yet, which could affect the forecast for Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi.

Carlos Alcaraz – Matteo Arnaldi Tip

The Spaniard’s role as a favorite couldn’t be any clearer, with the bookmakers giving him a 97% probability of victory with their odds. After all, this Spanish-Italian round of 16 is a “David vs. Goliath” match as it is written in the book. It makes all the less sense to bet on the Goliath in such constellations. However, conversely, there is no evidence that the David has even the slightest chance of winning this match.

Nevertheless, we trust the up-and-coming Italian to score a point or two. It’s very coherent to bet that the underdog will win at least nine games even in an expected 3-0 defeat.