Will the Muscovite push his limits again?
For the third time this year, it comes to the duel between high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The Spaniard first beat the Russian 2-0 in the final of the Indian Wells Masters, before the way to the overall victory at Wimbledon also led via this duel. In the semifinals, the Spanish world number one also managed a smooth 3-0 victory over his current opponent, which is why Carlos Alcaraz’s betting on another victory for the Spaniard against Daniil Medvedev is under a good star.
In any case, there has been little to oppose Carlos Alcaraz at Flushing Meadows so far. The Spaniard, who has dropped just one set on his way to the semifinals, has won 16 of his 17 completed singles matches at the US Open. In his only defeat in the quarterfinals in 2021, he was forced to retire after the first set due to injury. Our prediction for Carlos Alcaraz against Daniil Medvedev is therefore clearly leaning towards the Spaniard reaching the final.
It has to be said that Daniil Medvedev also has a knack for the hard court Grand Slam tournament in New York City. The Russian won 28 of his 33 singles matches at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center and even celebrated the overall victory here in 2021. A year later, however, Carlos Alcaraz followed in his footsteps, not only entering the race as defending champion but also unbeaten in eleven singles matches at Flushing Meadows.
We think the Russian can even win the set under certain circumstances. However, we think the best bet is for Daniil Medvedev to win under 17.5 games in total
Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 1
Position in the seedings: 1
At the 2023 US Open, Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, just 20 years young, picked up where he left off in the last two years. In his usual dominant manner, the outgoing world number one, who will be replaced in the rankings by Novak Djokovic on Monday regardless of how the tournament progresses, marched through the men’s singles.
Most recently, he didn’t give Germany’s Alexander Zverev a chance in a smooth 3-0 win in the quarterfinals (6-3, 6-2, 6-4). All in all, the man from El Palmar in southeastern Spain dropped just one set on his way to the semifinals.
Already in Wimbledon semifinals with 3-0 win over Medvedev
Now the opponent standing in the way of the overall winner of the 2022 US Open is the same one over whom his most recent triumph at Wimbledon also came. In the semifinals of the prestigious Grand Slam tournament in London, Alcaraz defeated Medvedev remarkably smoothly and clearly with 3:0 (6:3, 6:3 and 6:3).
Carlos Alcaraz’s bet against Daniil Medvedev is that the Spaniard will now be able to do the same. The last hard-court duel with the Russian was also a clear affair in the final of the Indian Wells Masters 2023, when the Spaniard prevailed 2-0 (6-3 and 6-2).
Won 58 of 64 singles matches in 2023
It is becoming increasingly clear that the US Open could be for Carlos Alcaraz what the French Open was for Rafael Nadal or the Wimbledon Championships for Roger Federer. In Flushing Meadows, the outgoing world number one already has 16 wins from 17 completed singles matches.
Carlito’s only defeat came in the quarterfinals of 2021, when he was forced to retire after a close first set against Félix Auger-Aliassime. Two years later, however, the 20-year-old is not only top fit but also hard to beat, as evidenced by an incredible annual record of 58 wins against just six losses.
Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 3
Position in the seedings: 3
On the one hand, 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev once again lived up to his “bad boy” image at the 2023 US Open when, in his second-round match against Christopher O’Connell, he summoned a team of doctors to the court after losing a set in an attempt to play mind games with his opponent.
On the other hand, the Muscovite was also convincing all along the line in the 143rd men’s singles of the Grand Slam tournament in the United States of America. This is the fourth time that the world number three has reached the semifinals here.
Won 28 of 33 singles matches at the US Open
Medvedev has already made it to the grand final twice in the process. In 2019, he lost 3-2 to Rafael Nadal in the final, but in 2021 he claimed his only Grand Slam title to date here in New York City with a remarkably smooth 3-0 victory over Novak Djokovic.
The Moscow native’s US Open record reads accordingly, winning 28 of his 33 US Open singles matches and giving compatriot Andrey Rublev no chance in the quarterfinals in a smooth 3-0 win (6-4, 6-3, 6-4).
Only 29% won points on second serve in quarterfinals
Despite that, when it comes to Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev, the odds are against the Russian, who has played five sets against the Spanish world number one this year. Not only did he lose all five sets, but not once in those five sets did he come up with more than three games won.
This is exactly what it could come down to again now, as two pieces of data from the 3-0 win over Rublev are quite concerning. Firstly, Medvedev scored in the quarterfinals in only 29% of all cases in which he had to get over the second serve. Secondly, he allowed a total of 13 break points against him, of which Rublev missed eight. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is known to let much less go to waste…
Carlos Alcaraz – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 2:1
Three times both athletes have faced each other in a singles match on the ATP Tour so far and only in the first encounter at Wimbledon 2021 the Russian managed to prevail in the end. In 2023, on the other hand, Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev first in Indian Wells in the final of a Masters tournament smoothly 2:0 (6:3 and 6:2), before he could defeat the Russian also in this year’s semifinals of the Wimbledon Championships smoothly 3:0 (6:3, 6:3 and 6:3).
Carlos Alcaraz – Daniil Medvedev tip
Bottom line betting odds on Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev swing in the direction of the Spaniard, who not only clearly won both singles matches in 2023 against his Russian opponent without dropping a set, but who also managed to win 16 of 17 singles matches at the US Open. In his only defeat so far, he was forced to retire due to injury. So there is a lot to be said for him making it to the final again.
Basically, the Russian, who won the men’s singles at the US Open in 2021, should be able to win one or two games and maybe even a set. Nevertheless, our forecast for Carlos Alcaraz against Daniil Medvedev is that the Muscovite will win under 17.5 games in the end
