Can Zverev get some help from the Russian?

Two former world No. 1s and Grand Slam winners clash in the all-important final match of the Red Group at the 2023 ATP Finals. For Daniil Medvedev, the only question left is whether he advances to the semi-finals as group winner or runner-up. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, needs to win, but could actually still progress if he loses if Alexander Zverev loses his evening match against Andrey Rublev

It is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of Carlos Alcaraz’s match against Daniil Medvedev. The head-to-head comparison between the two opponents is also completely even, with two wins each. Although the Spaniard won two of the three duels in 2023, he lost the last comparison with the Russian in the semi-finals of the US Open 2023 with a score of 1:3

At Flushing Meadows, the two players gave each other absolutely nothing, especially in the first set, which was consequently only decided in a tie-break. A course of events that we can also very well imagine at the ATP Finals in Turin. The prediction that the first set of Carlos Alcaraz against Daniil Medvedev will go to a tie-break is correspondingly consistent.

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Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 2
Position in the seeding list: 2

The 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz is already a two-time Grand Slam winner and even led the ATP world rankings for most of 2023. However, the high-flyer is actually making his debut at the ATP Finals.

A year ago, the man from El Palmar missed the final tournament of the year due to an injury, which also forced him to take a break at the 2023 Australian Open. However, “Carlito” then reached at least the semi-finals at all three Grand Slam tournaments of the season and even won the Wimbledon Championships after an epic final against Novak Djokovic

Sure to reach the semifinals with a win

Most experts therefore see the young Spaniard as one of the favourites to win the 2023 ATP Finals, where Carlos Alcaraz initially started with a 2:1 defeat against Alexander Zverev.

In the second group match, however, the 20-year-old had a direct answer. The world number two dispatched Andrey Rublev 2-0 and now has everything in his own hands again. If Carlos Alcaraz’s bet on “Carlito” winning against Daniil Medvedev pans out, the Spaniard would surely be in the semi-finals

65 of the 76 singles matches won in 2023

The year’s record certainly speaks in favor of “Carlito”, who won 65 of his 76 singles matches on the ATP Tour in 2023 and also won eleven of his 16 duels with other top 10 players – including two victories against Daniil Medvedev.

However, it is also clear that the 20-year-old will have to summon up all of his skills and not present himself as carelessly as he did in the opening match, when he made 15 unforced errors against Zverev and only took a single service game from the German, winning just 28% of his return points. At least in the second match, however, the Spaniard was able to improve on his 41% return point win rate against Andrey Rublev

Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seeding list: 3

The 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev is currently competing at the ATP Finals for the fifth time. He has failed twice in the round robin. On the other two occasions, however, he made it all the way to the final. In 2020, he defeated Dominic Thiem there. A year later, he was defeated by Alexander Zverev in the final.

Now the Muscovite will also decide on Friday afternoon at the Pala Alpitour in Turin whether that same German still has a mathematical chance of reaching the semi-finals in the evening, or whether Alexander Zverev’s 2023 season will end on Friday in any case

Is Daniil Medvedev going for the group win?

For Daniil Medvedev, meanwhile, it’s still about winning the group. The Russian will find out which opponent he could avoid the day before, which on the one hand makes the starting position very comfortable, but on the other hand is also very complicated, because a defeat could also mentally affect the rest of the tournament.

The Muscovite will therefore have to find a happy medium in order to avoid getting caught up in an energy-sapping match, which would rob him of his fitness for the semi-final the following day, while still keeping his rhythm. In any case, the bookmakers are giving him the underdog role because of this balancing act, as the odds on Carlos Alcaraz against Daniil Medvedev favor the Spaniard.

95% of all service games at the ATP Finals 2023 utilized

The Russian also impressed across the board in 2023. Daniil Medvedev won five singles titles on the ATP Tour and has 67 wins from 83 singles matches played. Thanks in part to a 3:1 victory over his current opponent Carlos Alcaraz, the 27-year-old also reached a Grand Slam final for the fifth time at the 2023 US Open, where he lost 3:0 to Novak Djokovic.

All the more impressive was the Moscow native’s performance so far in Turin, where Daniil Medvedev won both matches against Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev 2:0. His service game in particular was almost impossible to defend. The world number three had a total of 20 service games in his two group matches so far. He has only conceded one of them

Carlos Alcaraz – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 2:2

There have been four meetings between the two athletes so far and the head-to-head is currently completely even with two wins each. In calendar year 2023, two of the three duels went to Carlos Alcaraz, who not only beat the Russian 2-0 in the final of the Indian Wells Masters, but also eliminated Daniil Medvedev 3-0 in the semi-finals of the Wimbledon Championships. The Muscovite then returned the favor in the semifinals of the US Open with a 3:1 victory over the Spaniard.

Carlos Alcaraz – Daniil Medvedev tip

While Daniil Medvedev is certain to reach the semi-finals even if he loses, Carlos Alcaraz could theoretically also progress in the event of a defeat if Rublev wins the evening match. However, the Spaniard certainly won’t be hoping for any real help, while for the Russian the group win is at stake. We therefore expect both opponents to play for victory unconditionally, which makes it very difficult to predict the outcome of Carlos Alcaraz against Daniil Medvedev

Although it definitely can’t be in the Russian’s interest to be on court for three hours or even longer, we expect the match to be longer rather than shorter. We can well imagine that – just like the last time they met at the US Open 2023 – the first set will go straight to a tie-break and set the course for the rest of the match