Will Alcaraz throw away his semi-final chance in the second match?

The red preliminary round group at the ATP Finals 2023 in Turin produced a surprise on the first match day. Alexander Zverev was able to hold his own against the Spanish Wimbledon winner Carlos Alcaraz in three sets to celebrate a perfect debut. The German hopeful has set himself the goal of winning the unofficial tennis world championship for the third time

While Zverev can already look delicately towards the semi-finals thanks to his triumph and at least has progression in his own hands, the two losers from Monday will now face each other on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, the bookmakers’ predictions are fairly clearly pointing to a win for the Spaniard. However, the 20-year-old exceptional talent’s form has been on the decline this fall, so his Russian opponent should definitely be hoping for a landmark victory

Although Rublev started this financially very lucrative final tournament of the 2023 tennis year with an outright two-set defeat against his compatriot Daniil Medvedev, the world number five has underlined his great form with strong results in recent weeks. The indoor court in Turin should also play into the 26-year-old’s hands. If he minimizes the number of easy mistakes on Wednesday, a tip on the supposed underdog in the duel between Alcaraz and Rublev could actually come true

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

At just 20 years of age, Carlos Alcaraz has already achieved much of what other top professionals on the scene will probably never achieve. The man from Murcia in Andalusia has already won two Grand Slam titles at the US Open 2022 and Wimbledon 2023 and became the youngest ever world number one in August 2022. After the era of Federer, Nadal, Murray and Djokovic, which is slowly coming to an end, Alcaraz appears to be the new superstar in tennis heaven.

However, it is also clear that the 1.83 meter tall right-hander is not immune to the odd performance fluctuation due to his young age. In the first half of this season, it looked as if “Carlito” would be hard to beat, but after his emotional Wimbledon success in the summer, he failed to win any more tournaments. At the US Open, Alcaraz was beaten by Medvedev in the semi-finals, at the following tournaments in China, the semi-finals and round of 16 were the end of the line and the dress rehearsal at the Masters in Paris-Bery was anything but ideal with a second-round exit against Roman Safiullin

Alcaraz is currently not playing his A-game

In general, the southern Spaniard is not in the best shape. The 20-year-old has lost four of his last six matches on the tour. The three-set defeat to Alexander Zverev on Monday was the third loss in a row for the current world number two, who has not won a single match indoors in 2023 and has only managed an even 6-6 record on the fast indoor surface since the start of the previous season.

To make matters worse, Juan Carlos Ferrero’s protégé’s game is currently a little too error-prone. Alcaraz made 15 (!) unforced errors against Zverev, only capitalized on one of a total of six break points and ultimately won five games fewer than his German opponent, who was considered the underdog in the run-up to this match. Although the two-time Grand Slam champion loves the big tennis stage and can obviously shift up a gear or two at important tournaments, we think the odds on the Andalusian’s success in the Alcaraz v Rublev duel are far too low. We don’t rule out another defeat for the favorite

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Andrey Rublev has qualified for the ATP Finals for the fourth time in a row. While the Russian was eliminated in the group stage in each of his first two appearances, he reached the semi-finals last year. On the way there, he defeated two absolute top players, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, before Casper Ruud got the better of Rublev in the final round.

Nevertheless, looking at his record, it is clear that the 26-year-old really enjoys playing on hard courts indoors. Rublev has already won 126 indoor matches in his career, more than on clay, for example. In 2023, he won six matches and lost five, while last year the Russian won 18 of his 24 matches and claimed two titles

Rublev failed to capitalize on any of his seven break points against Medvedev

Apart from that, the Moscow-born player, who has never made it past the quarter-finals at a Grand Slam and has lost a Grand Slam quarter-final nine times in total, seems to be in extremely good form at the moment. At the last important hard court tournament in Shanghai, “Rubl” reached the final, at the indoor tournament in Vienna, Jannik Sinner was a size too big after two close sets in the semi-finals and last week in Paris, Rublev also made it to the final round, where he even took a set from the eventual winner Djokovic. If he can build on this performance, Alcaraz and Rublev could at least be predicted to win a set for the underdog.

Compared to his opening defeat, however, Rublev will have to improve his serve in particular. The right-hander, who actually has a very decent first service, only hit two aces and also made two double faults. Winning 62% of points on his first serve will probably not be enough to beat Alcaraz either. Nevertheless, the good return quality must be kept in mind, as Rublev earned seven break chances against Medvedev, none of which he was able to use. If he increases these aforementioned odds on break point and on his own service, we see the world number five in the hall on a par with the Spanish world number two!

Carlos Alcaraz – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H result

The only meeting between these two stars of the tennis scene took place on hard court at an exhibition tournament in the United Arab Emirates in December 2022. Rublev prevailed in two clear sets 6:2 and 6:1. Things are likely to be far more exciting on Wednesday. Even a match over the full distance seems to be within the realms of possibility

Carlos Alcaraz – Andrey Rublev tip

In tennis, the Grand Slam tournaments are by far the most prestigious and significant. The ATP Finals, on the other hand, are lucratively endowed, but do not necessarily ensure that all the top pros prepare themselves conscientiously and regardless of losses for the end of the season in November. This is one of the reasons why this event is always good for surprises. The first match day already saw one or two unexpected results, most notably Carlos Alcaraz’s defeat to Alex Zverev.

The world number two from southern Spain is already under pressure on the second match day and absolutely has to win against his Russian opponent to keep his chance of reaching the semi-finals. However, after the rather weak performance against Zverev, when “Carlito” found hardly any solutions, especially against the Hamburg player’s serve, the encounter against the world number five from Moscow will not be a walkover. Accordingly, it is not entirely understandable that the betting odds in the Alcaraz vs. Rublev duel are so clearly in the Andalusian’s favor

We believe that an evenly-matched encounter between equals is absolutely realistic and argue that Rublev has been in very good form recently, only losing to Djokovic in three sets in Paris and also winning the only direct duel against the exceptional Spanish talent to date. Since the subjective assessment therefore tends towards a 50/50 game, we are going with the (much) higher odds and pushing the bet between Alcaraz and Rublev on the victory of the underdog, who is appearing at the ATP Finals for the fourth time and wants to reach the semi-finals for the second time in a row