Is Sascha good for another surprise?

The quarterfinals of the US Open 2023 will be an absolute cracker when Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev clash. The German leads after five duels with three wins against the world number one, whom he could already beat on Grand Slam level at the French Open 2022 in the quarterfinals, before he suffered his serious injury in the following round and was out for a long time. The betting on Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev on the supposed underdog is correspondingly interesting.

Finally, if you only look at hard court, the German even leads the “head to head” comparison against the Spaniard with 2:0 victories (4:0 in sets). However, it should not go unmentioned that the Spaniard won 15 of his 16 singles matches at the US Open and had to retire due to injury in his only defeat so far at Flushing Meadows. Accordingly risky is with Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev the forecast on the German of course.

Although he has only managed to record a win against a top-10 player for the second time in his 15th match at major tournaments in his career in the round of 16 against Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev has certainly earned a reputation as a giant-killer. The Hamburg native has hardly won against a top star on the ATP Tour. Even against Novak Djokovic, he has four wins from twelve encounters.

So it’s a good bet that the German will come out on top in what is sure to be a close match.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 1
Position in the seedings: 1

The 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz already won the important hard-court Grand Slam tournament in New York City a year ago, after claiming two Major titles in Miami and Madrid earlier in the year.

This year, the shooting star from El Palmar has continued his winning streak. Two more major titles in Indian Wells and Madrid were followed by his next big coup in the summer, when he beat Novak Djokovic 3-2 to win Wimbledon after an epic five-set final.

Won 15 of the 16 singles matches at the US Open

While the Spaniard will lose his leading position in the ATP world rankings to Djoker after the US Open regardless of the further course of the tournament. The 20-year-old is nevertheless aiming to defend his title.

He has only dropped one set on his way to the quarterfinals so far and has celebrated four further victories, taking his tally at Flushing Meadows to 15 wins from 16 singles matches. His only loss at the US Open dates back to the quarterfinals in 2021, when he was forced to retire due to injury after trailing 1-0 in sets to Félix Auger-Aliassime.

Lost both hard court duels against Zverev

Correspondingly, the odds are now clearly swinging in the direction of the retiring world number one when it comes to Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev, who has, however, lost both of his previous hard-court duels with the German by a fairly clear margin.

What is clear is that in this quarterfinal against a strong opponent, the 20-year-old will need, on the one hand, a similarly strong serve as in the round of 16, when he not only won 78% points with the first serve but also managed to win 60% points with the second serve, while on the other hand, he will also have to remain poisonous in the return game. Against Matteo Arnaldi (ATP 61), 43% won return points were also on record in the 3-0 win in the round of 16.

Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 12
Position in the seedings: 12

In addition to five singles titles at Masters tournaments, the 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev has already won the ATP Finals twice. Add to that the gold medal at the 2021 Olympics.

Only two things are still missing from Sascha’s CV: first place in the ATP world rankings and a Grand Slam title. The Hamburg native came close to the latter three years ago when he was already 2-0 up against Dominic Thiem in the final of the 2020 US Open, but then had to concede defeat 3-2.

In a quarterfinal of a Grand Slam tournament for the tenth time

Now the German wants to dare another attack and for this he has fought his way into the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the tenth time in his career. To do so, Sascha recently even beat Jannik Sinner (ATP 6), an extremely in-form opponent who just won the Canadian Open at the US Open Series this summer.

Although Alexander Zverev has a reputation as a giant-killer and has beaten all the top stars on the ATP Tour, from Roger Federer to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, this was only his second singles win at this major level against a top-10 player in his 15th match.

Unbeaten on hard court against Alcaraz

Despite that, now with Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev, the bet on the German’s entry into the semifinals is by no means speculative. After all, Sascha also won three of the previous five encounters against the Spaniard, including both duels on hard court.

Accordingly, the German can go into this quarterfinal with confidence, in which he by no means needs to hide in view of his performance data from the almost five-hour-long round of 16 against Jannik Sinner. His proud tally of 56 winners, for example, was matched by just 46 unforced errors, while he got through 19 of his 23 service games over the full distance of five sets.

Carlos Alcaraz – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 2:3

There have been five meetings between the two athletes so far and in three of the five duels Alexander Zverev prevailed in the end. At Grand Slam level, the German beat the Spaniard 3:1 in the quarterfinals of the French Open 2022, among others. The last duel so far at the Madrid Masters 2023, however, went clearly to Carlos Alcaraz 2:0

Carlos Alcaraz – Alexander Zverev Tip

With Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev, the betting odds are clearly in favor of the Spaniard, who has won 15 of the previous 16 singles matches at the US Open in his career and had to retire injured in his only defeat in the quarterfinals two years ago. However, the German has won three of the previous five singles matches against the defending champion. On hard court, Sascha even leads 2-0.

In principle, we also see the Spaniard in the role of the favorite. Nevertheless, with a strong ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and possibility of winning, all the ingredients for a coherent underdog bet are present, which is why we dare to predict that the German will make the race with Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev.