Can Casper Ruud stop the shooting star?
In a curious Masters tournament in which the top five seeded players all failed to make it past the quarter-finals, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud are two up-and-coming players who have reached their first-ever final of a major tournament. Either the young Spaniard or the Norwegian will thus now be able to record his biggest career success to date at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
The year’s balance is more in favour of the Spanish shooting star, who won 17 of his 19 singles in 2022 and already eliminated two top 10 players, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz, on the way to his first Masters final. Thus, ahead of the final between Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud, the odds are swinging towards the 18-year-old.
However, Casper Ruud has also performed very strongly in Miami so far. The Norwegian sent reigning world champion Alexander Zverev home 2-1 and has won 13 of 16 singles matches this year. Accordingly, a match in which one of the two athletes prevails by a wide margin is unlikely.
In our opinion, the most eventualities are covered by betting on Carlos Alcaraz against Casper Ruud with a handicap of +3.5 games.
Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 16
Position in the seedings: 14
The 18-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has already been competing regularly in the tournaments of the ATP Tour, or the ATP Challenger Tour, since 2019. Partly because he gained a foothold in the shark tank of men’s tennis at a young age, there are quite a few records on record for the man from El Palmar.
In 2019, Alcaraz became the very first player born in 2003 to win a match on the ATP Challenger Tour. When he reached the main draw of the Australian Open in 2021, he became the youngest qualifier there since none other than Novak Djokovic (2005).
Won 17 of 19 singles in 2022
And now Carlos Alcaraz could secure the first ever Major title of his career and become the youngest ever Miami Masters champion. A fortnight ago, the Spaniard reached the semifinals in Indian Wells, but was defeated by his great idol and compatriot Rafael Nadal.
It was one of only two defeats the 18-year-old had to accept in the whole of 2022. This compares to 17 victories – including three against top 10 players. In Rio de Janeiro, the Spaniard secured his second singles title on the ATP Tour after winning the overall title at the small ATP Umag in the summer of 2021.
Firstly, the Spaniard is a gifted return player, as evidenced by the fact that he won 41% of all opponents’ service games in 2022. Secondly: The 18-year-old has strong nerves and won three of the four tie-breaks played in Miami. And thirdly: Alcaraz also won the only direct duel to date with his Norwegian opponent outright 2:0.
Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 8
Position in the seedings: 6
The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud was able to celebrate his breakthrough in the calendar year 2021 and break into the top 10 of the ATP world rankings. This was due to the fact that he won five tournaments last season.
However, as impressive as this figure was, making him the second most successful player in terms of individual titles behind Alexander Zverev, it always had to be put into perspective that Casper Ruud only won minor tournaments in the ATP 250 category.
The first Masters final of his career
The Major title, or at least the first Major final reached, was still a long time coming for the 23-year-old.
Before his run in Miami, which has now taken him to his first major final, Casper Ruud had only reached the semi-finals of a major tournament four times, where he always lost out.
At the Miami Open 2022, the world number eight also lost his first service game against Francisco Cerúndolo and fell behind 0:1. However, the Norwegian did not collapse as a result. Instead, he turned the match around with ease and strolled to a 2-0 victory in 1:35 hours (6:4 and 6:1).
Won 13 of 16 singles in 2022
In total, the Norwegian hopeful has now won 13 of 16 singles matches in 2022 and was also able to beat Alexander Zverev (2-1) in the quarter-finals for only the fifth time in his career, a top-10 player.
Nevertheless, Carlos Alcaraz’s bet on winning the tournament against Casper Ruud is not under the most favourable omens when he now faces an extremely strong return player. With his height of only 1.83 metres, the Norwegian is not exactly considered a giant on serve, which is why it is to be expected that he will have to fight hard for most of his service games.
Carlos Alcaraz – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1:0
Last summer, both players faced each other at the ATP Marbella on outdoor clay courts. Local hero Carlos Alcaraz celebrated an easy 2:0 victory over Casper Ruud (6:2 and 6:4) in the quarter-finals
Carlos Alcaraz – Casper Ruud tip
When it comes to Carlos Alcaraz against Casper Ruud, the prediction tends to go in the direction of the Spanish shooting star, who not only won the only duel against the Norwegian so far, but also has the better annual record and the more impressive path to the final. The 18-year-old has only lost two singles this year, which can be attributed in particular to his return qualities.
It will be correspondingly difficult for the Norwegian to secure his own service games, although Casper Ruud is also capable of breaking the Spaniard. The match will be correspondingly close in the end. We therefore see the greatest value in the handicap of +3.5 on the Norwegian.
