Will the man from Turin make the Italian semi-finals perfect?

For a long time, Italy was not really on the map in men’s tennis. Now, however, two Italian players are in the round of the last eight athletes at the 113th edition of the Australian Open. If not only Jannik Sinner beats Alex de Minaur as expected, but if the tip for the victory of the Turin player against Lorenzo Sonego should also come true with Ben Shelton, there would even be an all-Italian semi-final on Friday in Melbourne Park.

However, it is not entirely clear to what extent luck of the draw can be held responsible for this success. After all, the Italians’ opponents had previously always beaten notable opponents from the seed list, which should be taken into account when forecasting Ben Shelton against Lorenzo Sonego.

A close match is to be expected. The paths of the two players have crossed twice so far, and in both cases, both players have won at least one set. In the only hard court duel, which goes back to the Western & Southern Open 2022, Ben Shelton, for example, only just managed to win 2-1 after 34 completed games in a match that could have ended the other way around.

So we are expecting another hard-fought match, which is why various over-bets, as we suggest them in our betting tip table, are very coherent. Alternatively, we also find a lot of value in the supposed underdog bet – the Interwetten app offers odds of 3.50 for the Italian to win.

Ben Shelton – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 20
Seed: 21

22-year-old American Ben Shelton was already holding a tennis racket at birth. His father Bryan Shelton was once ranked 55th in the ATP world rankings. His uncle Todd Witsken was even ranked 43rd.

Accordingly, a lot is expected of the player from Atlanta, Georgia, who has now already advanced to 20th place in the ATP world rankings and even held 13th place in the rankings last fall.

Ben Shelton with outstanding Australian Open record

This is the third time that the American is taking part in the Australian Open men’s singles. He reached the quarterfinals at his debut in 2023. A feat he has now achieved for the second time in three years.

Overall, the 22-year-old has won ten of his twelve singles matches at the hard-court Grand Slam in Melbourne. That’s a winning percentage of 83.3, which is definitely on par with that of great champions. This also explains the favorite role of the world number 20, who recently benefited from an injury to veteran Gael Monfils (ATP 41) in a four-set thriller that went to tiebreaks in all three sets, with the score at 2-1.

Ben Shelton with convincing second serve

Nevertheless, the odds for Ben Shelton against Lorenzo Sonego are now clearly in favor of the player from Atlanta. ODDSET offers odds of 1.33 for the American’s entry into the semi-finals and, of course, offers a new customer bonus for successful ODDSET registration.

In his round of 16, the 22-year-old was particularly convincing with his second serve. His first serve percentage of 81 percent is very strong, but not overly impressive. Meanwhile, his second serve percentage of 54 percent is a real standout, which led to him only having to give up a single service game in the high-class match against Gael Monfils.

Lorenzo Sonego – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 55
Seed: unseeded

Although 29-year-old Italian Lorenzo Sonego has been part of the ATP Tour for a long time, he has yet to achieve any real success in all these years. He has participated in 25 Grand Slam tournaments, only reaching the round of 16 three times, and then always falling at that hurdle.

Now, for the first time in his career, the man from Turin has not only reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open, but has now even mastered this round for the first time ever. It took the man from Piedmont two hours and 24 minutes to knock the American qualifier Learner Tien (ATP 121) out of the competition 3-1.

Not top-class players, but still tough opponents

What is remarkable is that this pairing only came about in the first place. In the entire course of the tournament, Lorenzo Sonego did not have to get rid of any heavyweights, with the exception of the aging former Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka in the first round.

Instead of Andrey Rublev, for example, he faced Joao Fonseca in round two, who had beaten Rublev. Instead of Frances Tiafoe, he faced Fábián Marozsán, who had beaten Tiafoe. And finally, instead of Daniil Medvedev, he came up against the learner Tien, who defeated the Russian 3-2 in a high-class five-setter in the second round, thus causing one of the really big surprises in the tournament.

Lorenzo Sonego’s risky game was successful

It would be unfair to portray Lorenzo Sonego as an opportunist, though, especially since he had to work hard and solve many problems in his matches. Even now, a bet on his next victory is by no means out of the question against Ben Shelton. He has already beaten the American in a Grand Slam tournament – at the 2023 French Open (3-1).

The 29-year-old from Turin is also particularly strong on returns, as evidenced by the fact that he won 44 percent of his return points in the round of 16. In addition, his willingness to take risks often paid off. The 29-year-old hit an incredible 58 winners, compared with just 34 unforced errors. With such performance data, he will certainly be able to cause Ben Shelton major problems.

Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 1:1

The fact that a close match between two evenly matched players can be expected is also due to the fact that the two athletes have met each other 1:1 in head-to-head matches. Both matches were also hard-fought. On hard court, Ben Shelton won 2022 at the Western & Southern Open after three sets and 34 games by a narrow margin of 2-1, before Lorenzo Sonego returned the favor with a 3-1 victory at the 2023 French Open.

Ben Shelton – Lorenzo Sonego Tip

We are a little surprised that the betting odds of the top betting providers are so clearly in favor of Ben Shelton against Lorenzo Sonego. After all, the head-to-head comparison is even, while both players have already lost a few sets during the tournament. A close quarterfinal is therefore to be expected, which in all likelihood will not be decided in three sets either, but will likely be quite long.
In a match between two evenly matched players, we think the Italian has a 35 to 40 percent chance of winning. Because this is already enough to create a positive expected value, our prediction for Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego goes to the man from Turin for purely mathematical reasons.

The odds for the Italian to reach the semi-finals in the Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego match are 3.50, which we cautiously back at Interwetten with two units.