Can Collins crash the Barty party?
After Australian Ashleigh Barty failed to reach the semifinals of the Australian Open two years ago, the world number one advanced to this year’s women’s singles at the first Grand Slam tournament in the calendar year to become the first Australian finalist Down Under in 32 years. It could be the first time since 1978 that an Australian has won the most important tennis tournament in Australia.
However, Danielle Collins, who reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in her career, stands in her way. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the final between Ashleigh Barty and Danielle Collins, the odds are swinging in the direction of the local heroine.
There is much to suggest that the “Barty Party” will now come to a glorious end, the favourite can celebrate her third Grand Slam title and triumph in her home country for the first time. Already in the semifinals, however, quite a few experts wrote off the American Danielle Collins prematurely, who was on the spot against Iga Swiatek and played freely when the Pole was wobbly.
Accordingly, there is a lot of value in the betting on Ashleigh Barty against Danielle Collins, as there will be a maximum of 20 games to be played in the final before the winner is decided. If the Australian doesn’t have a good day either, it could quickly go in the direction of the outsider.
Ashleigh Barty – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 1
Position in the seedings: 1
The 25-year-old Australian Ashleigh Barty has recorded her first stage win. After consistently finishing in the top eight tournaments at the women’s singles Grand Slam in her home country for the past three years, she has now reached the grand final for the first time.
A single victory now separates Ash from becoming the first Australian Australian Open winner since Chris O’Neil (1978) and ending a 34-year drought at Melbourne Park.
Six straight 2-0 wins on way to final
In doing so, the world number one, who has already won the 2019 French Open and 2021 Wimbledon Championships, advanced to the final with a bang. She rolled over her opponent in a smooth 2-0 win over Madison Keys in the semifinals, surrendering just four games.
The Australian thus celebrated six straight 2-0 victories on her way to this grand final. In not a single match did she need more than 19 games to win. With this in mind, Ashleigh Barty against Danielle Collins is also a good bet for less than 20.5 games in the final.
Barty’s big weapon is the reliable serve
Looking at her almost unbreakable serve, which she used to score 24 out of 28 possible points on the first serve (86%) and 12 out of 18 possible points on the second serve (67%) in the semi-finals, Ashleigh Barty can really only beat herself.
Once again, the world number one remained unbreakable in the semifinals and was always on the spot when her opponent offered something. The player who managed to convert four of her six break points in the semi-final alone is now clearly favoured.
Danielle Collins – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 30
Position in the seedings: 27
The 28-year-old American Danielle Collins is a real late starter. It was only in 2016, at the advanced age of 23, that she decided to try her hand as a professional tennis player on the WTA Tour. Six years later, she is in her first Grand Slam final.
A possible overall victory in the women’s singles at the Australian Open would also be the first major title for the American, who has won every single final she has reached so far, but has only won two singles titles on the WTA Tour.
Just 79 minutes in the semifinals
All the more surprising is the run of Danielle Collins, who sweated mightily especially in the third and fourth rounds. Against Clara Tauson, the American only won after 32 hard games in the end with 2:1, before against Elise Mertens 30 games were necessary for a 2:1 comeback victory.
However, the 28-year-old then broke the deadlock, neither in the quarter-finals against Alize Cornet nor in the semifinals against co-favourite Iga Swiatek in an unchallenged 2-0 victory. The WTA world number 30 had only been on court for 79 minutes against the Pole when she converted her second match point.
Collins’ weapon is her strong backhand
Despite this, the American, who also benefited in the semifinals from the fact that her young opponent was visibly nervous and couldn’t convert the first two service games in a row, goes into the final as an underdog.
However, the 28-year-old has some great strengths that could make the difference. With her strong backhand in particular, she can be very aggressive on second serves, which could make it difficult for Ashleigh Barty to get through her usually reliable serve.
Ashleigh Barty – Danielle Collins Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 3:1
The two women have faced each other four times so far and the Australian has won three out of four. This is the third year in a row that the two finalists have faced each other at the start of the season in Down Under. Two years ago, Ash won 2-1 here, but a year ago, Collins beat the world number one for the first time in a straight 2-0 win…
Ashleigh Barty – Danielle Collins Tip
When it comes to Ashleigh Barty against Danielle Collins, the prediction basically goes in all forms in the direction of the dominant Australian, who has won six straight 2-0s on her way to the final, has hardly surrendered a service game and has lost a maximum of seven games per match. However, if she chooses the wrong match plan or offers something due to nervousness somewhere, her American opponent could punish that as ice-cold as she did in the semifinals against Iga Swiatek.
We see a lot of value in betting on a final that will be decided one way or another in under 20.5 games and thus also in two sets.
