Will the Nadal defeater overcome this hurdle?
With Rafael Nadal, one of the top favourites for the overall victory failed in the last 16 at the US Open on Monday. It is already clear that for the third time in a row, a player from the Flushing Meadows who does not belong to the “Big Three” will win the title. Of course, local hero Frances Tiafoe is secretly hoping for the big one. The man who successfully eliminated the bull from Manacor.
Andrey Rublev also has a good chance of reaching the quarter-finals. The Russian has already had to go the full distance of five sets on two occasions, but he dispatched Cameron Norrie in the round of 16 with a commanding 3-0 win. Nevertheless, the odds are evenly balanced in the run-up to the duel between Andrey Rublev and Frances Tiafoe.
The momentum of the American is certainly greater after the colossal 3-1 victory over Rafael Nadal, especially as Tiafoe was very concentrated, error-free and strong-spirited. If his serve holds up as well, the last remaining American in the men’s singles could well make it to the semi-finals.
Consequently, we opt for tip 2 on Andrey Rublev against Frances Tiafoe. However, a little risk can be taken off the ticket by replaying this bet with a free bet.
Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 11
Position in the seedings: 9
The 24-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev made his debut seven years ago at the 2015 US Open. Since then, the man from Moscow has won a total of eleven singles titles on the ATP Tour, although that does not include a single Major title.
At Grand Slam level, he has reached five quarter-finals and has always been eliminated in the round of the best eight men. And at Masters level, the Russian lost in the final in both Monte-Carlo and Cincinnati in 2021.
Won 17 of 23 singles matches at the US Open
Now Rublev is hoping to make it past a Grand Slam quarter-final for the first time in his sixth attempt. His record is encouraging. The 24-year-old currently has 40 wins from 54 singles matches in the 2022 calendar year, in which he has already won three comparatively small tournaments in Marseille, Dubai and Belgrade.
In addition, he has a good record at Flushing Meadows. Here, the Muscovite celebrated his 17th win in 23 singles matches in a clear 3-0 victory over Cameron Norrie in the round of 16.
63% of points won against the opponent’s second serve
In the last round of 16, Rublev convinced with a very aggressive style of play. On the one hand, he converted 80% of his first serves into points. And on the other hand, he always took maximum risk when his opponent had to come over the second serve, which resulted in 63% of return points won.
However, the Muscovite already has to come to terms with the fact that he will have the crowd against him, as in the previous rounds. Rublev is thus truly not immune to the next test of nerves and another five-set thriller like the last one in round three against Shapovalov.
Frances Tiafoe – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 26
Position in the seedings: 22
The 24-year-old American Frances Tiafoe has played a rather unremarkable year so far, which is why his strong run in the 142nd men’s singles of the US Open came as something of a surprise.
Before the important Grand Slam tournament in New York City, the man from Hyattsville had only 21 wins from 39 singles matches. In Flushing Meadows, however, he stormed into the quarter-finals with four wins in a row.
First to lose a set on the way to the quarter-finals
However, there was little to burn against compatriot Marcos Giron and Australian Jason Kubler before he followed it up with a smooth 3-0 win over Diego Schwartzman as well.
Nevertheless, few experts thought he had a chance to surprise top favourite Rafael Nadal.
In the end, however, Frances Tiafoe triumphed 3:1 and convinced in a thrilling match against the 22-time Grand Slam winner with a healthy amount of precision, calculated risk, good technique and nerves of steel. The 24-year-old always fought back when it seemed as if the momentum was shifting towards the Spaniard.
Only 50% of all first serves arrived in the round of 16
Even now, beating Rafa to reach the US Open quarter-finals is an absolute milestone for the ATP world number 26, but of course he has now tasted blood and wants more.
If the American can improve his first serve, which only reached the opponent’s court 50% of the time in the round of 16, by a small nuance and maintain his power, which led to 18 aces, the chances are very good that Andrey Rublev’s tip against Frances Tiafoe will pay off for his semi-final appearance.
Andrey Rublev – Frances Tiafoe Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1:1
The two players have faced each other twice so far – including once at the US Open exactly one year ago, when Frances Tiafoe prevailed 3-2 in a real thriller in the end. Andrey Rublev returned the favour a few weeks ago at the Western & Southern Open 2022 with a straightforward 2:0 victory over the American.
Andrey Rublev – Frances Tiafoe Tip
Although the Russian just had a smooth 2-0 win over the American in Cincinnati, our prediction goes in the direction of the local hero for Andrey Rublev against Frances Tiafoe. The world No. 26 is not only riding a wave of euphoria after his 3-1 win over Rafael Nadal, but is also likely to be carried by his “home crowd” in New York City, not least because of the American-Russian differences.
In a potentially even duel, which has been won by both players once each in the past, we therefore see the American ahead by a few nuances, which is why we play tip 2.
