Will return player Garín unnerve the Russian?

With Andrey Rublev and Cristian Garín, two athletes will clash in the third round of the French Open, both of whom have already recorded the overall victory in the boys’ singles at Roland Garros in their junior careers. The Chilean beat none other than Alexander Zverev in the final in 2013. Rublev won a year later against Jaume Munar.

Now it will be decided between two interesting players who will secure their ticket to the last 16, where Jannik Sinner from Sesto might be waiting. It is clear that the winner of this match will also have a chance. In the run-up to the duel between Andrey Rublev and Cristian Garín, the odds are in favour of the Russian.

The Muscovite, who has already won three singles titles in 2022, goes into this third round with the much greater momentum. While his Chilean opponent has a mixed record of 12 wins and 12 losses, Rublev has won 27 of his 34 singles matches this season.

Nevertheless, it was by no means without complications for the Russian on his way to the third round of Roland Garros, who lost one set each. Accordingly, we see a lot of value in Andrey Rublev against Cristian Garín in the betting that this match will also have a certain length.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 7
Position in the seedings: 7

The 24-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev has not yet won a Major title. However, the man from Moscow has already won a total of eleven tournaments on the ATP Tour, three of which he won this year.

Among others, Fernando Vicente’s protégé won the clay court tournament in Belgrade at the end of April, where he disenchanted no one less than local hero Novak Djokovic in the final with a 2-1 win.

Failure in the first round without consequences

There is no denying that Andrey Rublev’s playing potential is enormous. Every now and then, however, the Russian’s aggressiveness is not only evident in his rousing style of play, but also off the court – such as in his inglorious opening match.

After losing the first set in a tiebreak, the 24-year-old slammed a tennis ball away, which bounced off a bench and knocked a ball boy’s cap off his head. A similar action had led to Novak Djokovic’s disqualification at the US Open 2020. The Muscovite was therefore happy to remain in the tournament, in which he secured his ticket to the third round with two 3:1 wins.

23 aces and 77,5 % point wins with the first serve

In total, not only the year’s balance of 27 wins from 34 played singles clearly speaks for the Russian, but also his performance data at Roland Garros was convincing on balance. In both matches, Rublev scored on average 77.5 % of all points with his first serve and already hit 23 aces on the comparatively slow clay court.

That should also earn him enough free points in the third round to set the course for a place in the last 16.

Cristian Garín – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the World Ranking: 37
Position in the seedings: unseeded

While Andrey Rublev has been able to build on his successes from his junior career on the ATP Tour, the 25-year-old Chilean Cristian Garín has not been overly successful so far.

The man from Santiago, who won the final of the French Open boys’ singles against Alexander Zverev in 2013, has already won five singles titles on the tour. However, all five titles can be traced back to comparatively small clay-court tournaments.

A year ago in the last 16 of the French Open

The fact is that the Chilean is fully committed to the clay court. This will be to his advantage at the French Open, where he already reached the last 16 a year ago. However, because things rarely went well for him on the other surfaces, he has never made it into the top 20.

By way of comparison, while Garín has a 63.1 % win rate on clay courts on the ATP Tour, he has just 35.6 % on hard courts. At least in Roland Garros, however, that is naturally an advantage. His two 3:1 victories over Thomas Paul and Ilya Ivashka were no coincidence.

Garín’s return qualities unfold on the clay court

The Chilean’s return qualities are particularly impressive and come into their own on the slow clay court. In the opening match, the 25-year-old scored on his opponent’s serve in no less than 48% of all cases. In the second round, it was still an impressive 36%.

If he brings comparable values to the court against the aggressive Russian, who tends to lose his nerves and let them affect him, a surprise is not out of the question. At the very least, however, the tip for a long match against Cristian Garín is under very favourable omens.

Andrey Rublev – Cristian Garín Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 2:0

Twice both athletes have faced each other so far and in both cases Andrey Rublev managed to prevail in the end in very close and hard fought matches

Andrey Rublev – Cristian Garín Tip

In the case of Andrey Rublev against Cristian Garín, the prediction basically goes in the direction of the strong Russian. But especially with his enormous return qualities, the Chilean should be able to win a few points. If the Russian’s nerves get the better of him again, a surprise is not out of the question. At the very least, however, the Muscovite is likely to have problems again, just as he did in the first two matches, in which he dropped one set each.

In this context, there is a lot to be said for a match that will go over at least four sets and at least 35 games. The last two matches between the two athletes were already of a long duration.