Will Sascha overcome the first big hurdle?

For the fourth year in a row, Alexander Zverev has reached the last 16 of the Australian Open without losing a set. In the Rod Laver Arena, he gave qualifier Radu Albot no chance. Now, however, the standard will rise dramatically when he faces Denis Shapovalov, an opponent from the seeded list, for the first time.

The Canadian shooting star started as world number 14 Down Under and won two of the six duels with Sascha. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the round of 16 between Alexander Zverev and Denis Shapovalov, the odds are clearly in the German’s favour.

The last time this duel took place was the week before last at the ATP Cup, when Sascha narrowly prevailed 2-1 in the preliminary round in a close match with two tiebreaks. It could be similarly close again now, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on Alexander Zverev against Denis Shapovalov with a handicap of +5.5 games on the Canadian.

This would not only cover any win by the supposed underdog, but also a scenario in which he only loses by a narrow margin in the end.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seedings: 3

The 24-year-old German Alexander Zverev is currently competing in the men’s singles at the Australian Open for the seventh time in his career. The player from Hamburg has steadily improved his game.

After his first-round exit on his debut in 2016, he made it to round three twice before reaching at least the round of 16 three times in a row. In 2020, he even reached the semifinals.

Zverev won 19 of the 25 singles at the Australian Open

Now Sascha seamlessly continued his successful past Down Under and punched his ticket to his fourth straight round of 16 with three straight 3-0 wins without dropping a set. In total, the world number three won 19 of the 25 singles at the Australian Open.

It has to be said, however, that the German has not had to unleash his full potential so far, even in view of the less demanding opponents. On the one hand, this can be an advantage because he should still have enough potential for improvement in the physically demanding tournament over two weeks. On the other hand, however, the big difficulty now is to get the explosion of performance on the court at the right moment against a much tougher opponent.

Not dropping a single service game in the third round

One big weapon on the way to the next round will certainly be his powerful serve, which was not broken once by Radu Albot in the third round. If he once again wins the point with his first serve 83% of the time and hits 16 aces, it will be difficult for his Canadian challenger to take the service from him.

Denis Shapovalov – statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 14
Position in the seedings: 14

The 22-year-old Canadian Denis Shapovalov is in the main draw of the men’s singles at the Australian Open for the fifth time in his still young career. In the process, it is already clear that the Israeli-born player is setting a new personal best.

In the run-up to this year’s edition of the first Grand Slam tournament of the tennis season, he reached the third round in only two out of four cases, where he was then stopped in each case.

Shapovalov has won four of the six tiebreaks in the tournament

The Canadian has now reached the last 16 of the Australian Open for the first time, but he has had to stretch much harder than his German opponent to get there. After a 3:1 opening win over Laslo Dere, the 22-year-old had to recover from a 1:2 deficit in the second round against Soon-woo Kwon and punch his ticket to the third round in a five-setter over a total of 59 games.

Denis Shapovalov did not remain without a set loss against Köpfer defeater Reilly Opelka, but at least kept his nerve in the tiebreak once again. In total, the Canadian has won four of the six tiebreaks played in the tournament so far.

Only 25% of all break chances in the third round were converted

However, for Alexander Zverev to be tipped to reach the quarter-finals against Denis Shapovalov, the 22-year-old will have to drastically improve his return game. In the third round, his match also dragged on because he was only able to convert three of his twelve break points and only scored 34% of the time on the return.

Since it is to be expected that the German will only offer him a fraction of those break chances with his powerful service game, the way to the next round can only be through a significant increase in his efficiency.

Alexander Zverev – Denis Shapovalov Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 4:2

The two athletes have faced each other a total of six times so far and the German has prevailed on four occasions – most recently just a fortnight ago with a 2-1 win at the ATP Cup (6:7, 6:3 and 7:6). Overall, however, Sascha has only won three of the last eight sets against the Canadian.

Alexander Zverev – Denis Shapovalov Tip

In the case of Alexander Zverev against Denis Shapovalov, the overall prediction goes more in the direction of the German. However, the Canadian can still be a threat to him, especially if he can increase his efficiency on break chances and improve his return game. Apart from that, both players should be able to get through their service game relatively reliably. In the end, it could also be a question of nerves of steel in a tiebreak.

We see the greatest value in what could be a close round of 16 match in betting on the Canadian with an Asian handicap of +5.5 games. At the ATP Cup a fortnight ago, Sascha won only three games more in a narrow 2-1 victory.

Betting odds of 1.85 are available for this betting opportunity on Alexander Zverev against Denis Shapovalov.