Sascha faces a mammoth task
The quarter-finals of the Australian Open 2024 will include a rematch of one of the four quarter-finals of the US Open 2023, when Carlos Alcaraz beat the best German player 3:0 (6:3, 6:2 and 6:4). However, Sascha proved in the final tournament of the year at the 2023 ATP Finals that Alexander Zverev’s win over Carlos Alcaraz was far from a foregone conclusion when he put the Spaniard in his place 2:1 in the preliminary round (6:7, 6:3 and 6:4).
Alexander Zverev has a knack for the two-time Grand Slam winner from Spain. The German has won four of the seven meetings against Carlos Alcaraz so far and is therefore ahead in the head-to-head comparison. Strikingly, of the 18 sets that have been played between the two athletes so far, just two have gone to a tie-break. We therefore think it’s very exciting to predict that Alexander Zverev’s quarter-final against Carlos Alcaraz will end without a tie-break
Apart from that, we naturally agree with the role of favorite that Carlos Alcaraz enjoys on the part of the betting providers. The Spaniard already proved what an exceptional player he is at a young age in 2023 with an annual record of 65 wins from 77 singles matches. It goes without saying that Alexander Zverev will have to have an absolute dream day to knock the world number two out of the competition and reach the semi-finals of the Australian Open for the first time since 2020.
In principle, bets on the Spaniard beating the German as easily as he did in the quarter-finals of the 2023 US Open are therefore very popular. However, with the possibility of betting on less than 0.5 tiebreaks, we are also keeping the back door open for a possible sensational victory for the Hamburg native.
Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 6
Position in the seeding list: 6
The 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev has played a largely bumpy tournament at the Australian Open 2024 so far, where he has been on the brink of elimination several times. In the end, however, he came out on top in both the five-setter against Lukas Klein (ATP 163) and the thriller against Cameron Norrie (ATP 22), which also went the full distance.
The Hamburg native has thus reached the quarter-finals of the men’s singles of the traditionally first Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year for the third time in his career and could now be among the last four players in Melbourne for the first time since 2020
Strong start to the season for Alexander Zverev
The bookmakers’ odds for Alexander Zverev against Carlos Alcaraz clearly favor the German’s exit. However, Sascha’s fans should at least be encouraged by his record. The 26-year-old has won four of his seven previous duels with the young Spaniard, whom he only just beat 2:1 in the preliminary round at the 2023 ATP Finals.
The world number six is also in very good form overall going into this quarter-final. In the still young 2024 season, Zverev not only led Team Germany to overall victory in the United Cup with four singles wins, but also ultimately won every match at the Australian Open. This takes his tally to eight wins from nine singles matches played in 2024
Alexander Zverev already has several marathon matches in his bones
Much more problematic, on the other hand, is the fact that the German has already left quite a few seeds in the tournament. The 2021 Olympic Games gold medal winner only really came through the round of 16 against the American teenager Alex Michelsen (ATP 91), whom he dispatched 3-0.
Against Cameron Norrie (ATP 22), on the other hand, Alexander Zverev was once again on the hard court for four hours and nine minutes and had to fight his way through five sets in a total of 53 games including a match tiebreak to secure a 3:2 victory. Once again, his serve was the decisive factor, winning the point 69 percent of the time
Carlos Alcaraz – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 2
Position in the seeding list: 2
The 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has suddenly catapulted himself into the elite of the ATP Tour in the last two years. With his overall victories at the 2022 US Open and the 2023 Wimbledon Championships, Carlitos has already secured two of the most coveted trophies a professional tennis player can aspire to.
There are also four other overall victories at Masters tournaments. Only in his debut at the 2023 ATP Finals did the man from El Palmar, Murcia, once again fail to beat Novak Djokovic at the end of last year
Carlos Alcaraz follows on seamlessly from the 2023 season
The Spaniard then took some time out and decided to forego any preparation tournaments in 2024. Accordingly, Carlitos was well rested at the start in Down Under, where he dropped just a single set on his generally very smooth path to the quarter-finals.
Accordingly, the tip for Alexander Zverev against Carlos Alcaraz is that the world number two will take a decisive step closer to a possible dream final with Novak Djokovic by eliminating the German top star in the quarter-finals, as he did at the US Open 2023
Carlos Alcaraz with strong service and venomous returns
If Carlos Alcaraz performs as strongly as he did in the round of 16 against Miomir Mecmanovic, whom he dispatched 3-0 in just one hour and 50 minutes and even handed out the bagel in the third set in just 28 minutes (6-4, 6-4 and 6-0), Alexander Zverev would need a very special day.
Not only is the 20-year-old Spaniard almost unstoppable on his serve – in the third round he didn’t allow a single break point against him, winning 83 percent of points on his first serve – but he also impressed with 43 winners and an impressive 44 percent of return points, which should also enable him to attack Sascha’s strong service game
Alexander Zverev – Carlos Alcaraz Direct comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 4:3
The two athletes have already met seven times on the ATP Tour courts and Alexander Zverev leads the direct comparison with four wins. Most recently, the German was beaten 3:0 by the Spanish shooting star in the quarter-finals of the US Open 2023 (3:6, 2:6 and 4:6). However, in their last meeting to date in the preliminary round of the 2023 ATP Finals, Sascha had just defeated Carlos Alcaraz 2:1 in the fall (6:7, 6:3 and 6:4).
Alexander Zverev – Carlos Alcaraz tip
Although the German is 4:3 ahead in the head-to-head, the betting odds for Alexander Zverev against Carlos Alcaraz favor the young Spaniard. This is certainly also due to the fact that Carlitos left Sascha almost without a chance in the quarter-finals of the 2023 US Open. All the experts also agree that the two-time Grand Slam winner may not have his best day, while Alexander Zverev will have to be on top form again
It is noticeable that both players, who are now facing each other for the eighth time, have a strong return game. As a result, sets in which they both bluntly get through all six service games and then go into a tie-break are rare. Only two of the 18 sets between the two players have been decided by tiebreaks, which is why we favor the forecast of less than 0.5 tiebreaks in the match between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz.
