How much trouble will Sascha have with one of his favorite opponents?
After two shaky performances in the first two rounds, German superstar Alexander Zverev shone for the first time in the third round of the Australian Open. He dispatched American shooting star Alex Michelsen 3-0 to reach the round of 16 of the hard-court Grand Slam tournament in Melbourne for the fifth time in his career. Alexander Zverev’s next win against Cameron Norrie in this round is also very favorable for the German
The 28-year-old Briton is now Sascha’s favorite opponent. The native of Hamburg has won all four of his previous singles matches against the South African by 2:0. Nevertheless, we would be cautious about predicting Alexander Zverev’s next win against Cameron Norrie without losing a set. After all, the Brit also recently recorded an impressive 3:1 victory over Casper Ruud
Both athletes are also facing each other for the first time ever in a Grand Slam tournament. The situation of playing against each other with three sets to win is therefore quite new, which is why the fact that Sascha won four straight sets against Norrie 2:0 should not be overestimated. In view of the German’s weak phases, especially in the first two rounds, it is very likely that Cameron Norrie will now be able to take a set off him for the first time.
The greatest value can therefore be found in the bet that over 3.5 sets will have to be played in this round of 16 between two players from the seeding list before the winner of the match is ultimately decided.
Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 6
Position in the seeding list: 6
The 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev is still waiting for his very first Grand Slam title, which would finally help him achieve immortality. However, with a gold medal at the 2021 Olympic Games and two world titles at the 2018 and 2021 ATP Finals, he is of course already a highly decorated and firmly established top 10 player.
The Hamburg native can also look back on 21 singles titles on the ATP Tour, having last won a tournament in the ATP Tour 250 category last fall in Chengdu.
Zverev won seven of his eight singles matches in 2024
The year 2024 also held the first title for Sascha, who won the United Cup with Team Germany. The German won four of his five singles matches and defeated two other top 10 players, Stefanos Tsitsipas (ATP 6) and Hubert Hurkacz (ATP 9).
In Melbourne, Sascha initially found it very difficult against compatriot Dominik Koepfer (ATP 62) and qualifier Lukas Klein (ATP 163) and was on the verge of a 3:2 comeback win against the Slovakian in particular, in which sets four and five both went to a tie-break. He then served out the American teenager Alex Michelsen (ATP 91) in the third round with an ice-cold 3:0 (6:2, 7:6 and 6:2).
Alexander Zverev with brutal nerves of steel in tiebreaks
In the final game, Sascha was once again able to rely on his strong service game, which he only had to concede once. The set then went into a tie-break. However, for the fourth time in the tournament, the Hamburg native kept his nerve and won the set in the tie-break.
It is quite possible that Alexander Zverev’s bet against Cameron Norrie will also work out that at least one set will go to a tie-break. In any case, the fact is that the German has won all three tiebreaks so far against the Brit, against whom he has won all four meetings 2:0. The best prerequisites to reach the quarter-finals of the Australian Open for the third time in his career after 2020 and 2021
Cameron Norrie – statistics & current form
Cameron Norrie’s current position in the world rankings: 22
Position in the seeding list: 19
The 28-year-old Brit Cameron Norrie is a kind of picture-book cosmopolitan. Born in Johannesburg, South Africa, the son of a Scotsman and a Welshman grew up in New Zealand, where he also took his first steps on the ITF Junior Tour.
At the age of 15, the Brit moved to Europe before taking a detour to Asia and ending up in the UK with a host family. Since then, Norrie has also played under the British flag and has already won five singles titles for his adopted country on the ATP Tour – including the Major title in Indian Wells 2021 at a Masters 1000.
Norrie with a very expandable win rate against top 10 players
The South African-born player also secured a very prestigious title in 2023. At the ATP 500 in Rio de Janeiro, he was responsible for one of Carlos Alcaraz’s only twelve defeats of the season in the thrilling final.
However, it should be noted that Cameron Norrie is by no means the giant slayer par excellence. In 43 duels with reigning top 10 players to date, the 28-year-old has only managed ten victories. That corresponds to a win rate of just 23.3 percent. Consequently, the odds are now also against Alexander Zverev against Cameron Norrie
Cameron Norrie has already eliminated the first superstar
However, Cameron Norrie also has a big name on his conscience at the Australian Open, where he has reached the round of 16 for the first time at the sixth attempt. After Juan Pablo Varillas (ATP 81) was no touchstone in the first round (3:0), the Italian qualifier Giulio Zeppieri (ATP 133) put him to the test in the second round, in which he managed to come back from 2:0 down to win three sets in a row to make it 3:2.
He then defied his underdog role in the duel with three-time Grand Slam finalist Casper Ruud (ATP 11) without further ado and dispatched the Norwegian 3:1. The main reasons for this were 90 percent of break points saved and a stable 71 percent of points won on his own serve. Values with which he could also ask Sascha many an unpleasant question…
Alexander Zverev – Cameron Norrie head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 4:0
The two players have met four times so far and Alexander Zverev has won every single match against the Brit. Most recently, the German defeated Cameron Norrie 2:0 (6:2 and 6:4) in the round of 16 at the indoor hard court tournament in Vienna in 2023
Alexander Zverev – Cameron Norrie tip
All in all, the bookmakers’ odds for Alexander Zverev against Cameron Norrie favor the Hamburg native, who has won all four of his previous singles matches against his British challenger 2-0. However, it should be noted that the first sets in particular were always hard-fought between the two athletes. In their first three duels, the first set always went to a tie-break, in which the German always had the better end. However, this also suggests that Cameron Norrie is not too far away from winning the first set against the two-time ATP Finals winner
The forecast for Alexander Zverev against Cameron Norrie is that the Brit will be able to take at least one set from the German in a Grand Slam singles match over three sets. We recommend betting on over 3.5 sets.
Bet at Home is offering odds of 1.62 on the fact that at least four sets are needed to determine the winner, which we play with four units
