Will Sascha make his next run in the eternal city?
Five years have passed since Alexander Zverev’s great career got rolling right here at the Stadio del tennis di Roma. The then 20-year-old German secured the first Major title of his career at the 2017 Italian Open, beating Novak Djokovic straight up 2-0 in the final.
Now Sascha is through to the last 16 after a somewhat shaky but ultimately smooth 2-0 opening win over Sebastián Báez. There, the German will face Australian Alex de Minaur, who has only reached the quarter-finals of a major tournament once before in his career. In the run-up to the duel between Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev, the odds are clearly in favour of the world No. 3.
Already last week, Alexander Zverev was able to convince again in Madrid and fight his way into a final for the second time in what has been a predominantly complicated year so far in 2022. In the end, he lost out to the current high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz. Nevertheless, the upward trend remains discernible.
In a less consistent year, the Australian could well become a stumbling block. One way or another, however, it is likely to be a rather short match, which is why we favour a tip of under 22.5 games for Alex de Minaur against Alexander Zverev.
Alex de Minaur – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 22
Position in the seedings: unseeded
The 23-year-old Australian Alex de Minaur once started with gigantic advance laurels on the ATP Tour. In his junior days, the man from South Wales already climbed to number two in the junior world rankings and won the boys’ doubles at the Australian Open.
As a professional, however, the world number 22 has already recorded resounding successes. In 2018 and 2019, de Minaur made it to the Next Gen Finals twice. He has also won five singles titles on the ATP Tour.
Made it to the quarter-finals in one of 42 Major tournaments
It was only last year that the hype surrounding the Australian shooting star died down a bit. Since his overall victory at ATP Eastbourne 2021, de Minaur has not reached a single final. In two of his last three Grand Slam tournaments, he was even knocked out in the first round.
In addition, the Australian has not yet performed all that convincingly on the big stages. He only reached the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament at the US Open 2020. Including the Masters tournaments, it was his only quarter-final among 42 major tournaments played.
Won only six of 33 duels against top-10 players
What is lacking is evident from one figure in particular: his record against players from the top 10 of the ATP world rankings. The 23-year-old has only managed to win six of the 33 duels so far. That corresponds to a win rate of a meagre 18%.
His annual record of 20 wins from 29 singles matches reads rock solid. Once again, however, a top player could be the end of the line for the player from down under.
Alexander Zverev – Statistics & Current Form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seedings: 2
The 25-year-old German Alexander Zverev not only has a total of 14 singles titles on the ATP Tour ahead of his rival, who is two years younger. Sascha also has numerous overall victories at major tournaments to his name.
Among them was the overall victory at the Rome Masters, where the Hamburg player beat Novak Djokovic 2-0 five years ago. A year later, Zverev also made it through to the final.
22 of 30 singles won in 2022
14 of his 18 singles played at the Stadio del tennis di Roma so far have been won by the German superstar, with the 14th victory in the opening match against qualifier Sebastián Báez having to be hard fought.
But after Alexander Zverev held his nerve in the first set tiebreak, the spell was broken and the third-ranked player in the world came away with a commanding 2-0 victory. It was Sascha’s 22nd victory in his 30th singles match in 2022.
Head-to-head comparison: 5:1 ahead
Only the first singles title in the new year is still missing for the German, who had said goodbye to the winter break in 2021 so effectively with the overall victory at the ATP Finals. Neither in Montpellier (0:2 against Alexander Bublik) nor last Sunday in Madrid (0:2 against Carlos Alcaraz) did he have a good day in the final.
Nevertheless, Alex de Minaur’s betting on his renewed entry into the quarter-finals of the Italian Open against Alexander Zverev is basically under a good star. After all, Sascha has a strong record against the Australian. Five of the six previous duels with the man from Down Under went to the man from Hamburg.
Alex de Minaur – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1:5
Six times both athletes have faced each other in a singles match so far and five of the six matches went to the German number one. Sascha, who even managed to secure a singles title against Alex de Minaur in the final of the ATP Washington 2018, has so far only had to admit defeat to the Australian in the preliminary round at the ATP Cup 2020.
Alex de Minaur – Alexander Zverev Tip
When it comes to Alex de Minaur against Alexander Zverev, the prediction once again goes clearly in the direction of the German, who is not only considered to be the much more experienced clay court player, but who has also left little to be desired against the Australian in direct comparisons so far. Add to that Sascha’s strong record in Rome, where he recorded the overall victory in 2017 and won 14 of the 18 singles played.
For the most part, the German has prevailed against de Minaur with relative ease, which is why we see the most value in betting on under 22.5 games. This bet also covers the eventuality that Sascha has a complicated year, has a black day and is eliminated in two sets himself.
