With his defeat in the Cincinnati 1000 final against Alcaraz, Sinner sees his world number one position under threat. The coming weeks will be decisive

The victory in Ohio allowed Carlos Alcaraz to recover some 1,540 points on Jannik Sinner in just two weeks. In the new official rankings, released before the Cincinnati final, the South Tyrolean stands at 11,480 (for the additional 200 points earned in the quarterfinals of Montreal 2024, not defended this year), while the Spaniard stands at 9,240. With his defeat in Ohio, Jannik is now at 11,430 in the virtual rankings, with the Spaniard now at 9,590.
Their short-term battle will be decided at the US Open. To be sure of retaining the world No. 1 spot (which he has held for 63 consecutive weeks and is certain to reach 65), Sinner must win at Flushing Meadows. In fact, even reaching the final would not be enough for the Italian if Alcaraz wins. If the Spaniard wins in New York with Jannik in the final, he would overtake the Italian. This is because at the beginning of next week, Sinner will lose the 2,000 points he earned for his victory, while the Spaniard will only lose 50. Therefore, at the end of the US Open, Sinner could reach a maximum of 11,480 points. Losing in the final would mean 700 points less, leaving him with 10,780, behind Alcaraz if the Spaniard wins the sixth Grand Slam of his career (he would reach 11,540). Not only that, but with a victory in Cincinnati, the Spaniard will start the Slam virtually ahead in the rankings (9540 to 9480) and in the US, he will only need to achieve the same result as Sinner until the semifinals to overtake him definitively.

The others—  Behind them, Alexander Zverev (third with 6230) and Taylor Fritz (fourth with 5575 points) will battle it out for third place, but the American has to defend last year’s final. Jack Draper (fifth with 4440), a semifinalist in 2024, also has a lot of points to lose, so Shelton (sixth) can aim to enter the top 5 for the first time. Djokovic’s condition (seventh) is a mystery, given that he has not played since Wimbledon, behind him are de Minaur, Khachanov and Musetti, the last three separated by 300 points. Lorenzo, in New York, will fight to remain in the top 10 after his recent less than positive tournaments on hard courts.