Tonight’s Cincinnati final will not affect the race for number one, but the US Open will be decisive
The gauntlet thrown down by Carlos Alcaraz this time is as heavy as a medicine ball: “I can’t wait to face Sinner again. In every match, we both do something different to win.” And also to sit at number 1 in the rankings. The seat for two is now hotter than ever: that’s what the numbers say on the eve of the Cincinnati final, and they will say the same starting next week. Jannik knows it, Carlos knows it very well: the Masters 1000 final in Ohio will be the latest chapter, albeit not decisive for the rankings, in the rivalry between the two. The verdict on the number 1 spot will be decided a few miles away at the US Open: if Alcaraz wins in New York, he will take the lead.
The current situation is as follows: Sinner has 11,480 points and Alcaraz has 9,240. For the fourth time this season, the two best players in the world find themselves competing for a title in the final: Cincinnati offers another 350 points to the winner. So, if Jannik wins, he will move up to 11,830 (extending his lead over the Spaniard to +2,590). This scenario would even out their head-to-head record for the season: 2-2, with Wimbledon and Cincinnati for the Italian and Rome and Roland Garros for Alcaraz. If Carlitos wins the 1000 in Ohio, however, the Spaniard would climb to 9590 in the rankings, shortening the gap to 1890 points. However, Cincinnati will not be decisive in any case, because the real match between the two will be played at Flushing Meadows, another Slam where Sinner and Alcaraz could only meet in the final. If Carlos wins on the New York hard courts (as he did in 2022), he will become world number one.
the calculations— Yes, but why? Simple. Sinner will lose 2,000 points at the start of the US Open: a heavy burden that reminds him of his sensational run to the 2024 title. So Sinner will definitely drop to 9,830 (if he wins Cincinnati) or 9,480 (if he loses in the final) on the eve of the Slam. Alcaraz, on the other hand, will only lose 50 points, as last year’s post-Olympics saw him lose immediately in New York. The disappointment of 2024 could turn into an opportunity for Spain to overtake him in 2025: if Alcaraz loses in Cincinnati but triumphs at Flushing Meadows, he would climb to 11,190 points. And the most striking fact is that, should he succeed in beating Sinner in yet another final, the Murcia ace would gain only 60 points in the rankings, because, since defeat in a Slam final guarantees 1300 points, the South Tyrolean would remain at 11130. The scenario changes little if we consider a double win for Alcaraz between Cincinnati and the US Open: in fact, in this case, the Spaniard would start the Slam virtually ahead in the rankings (9,490 to 9,430) and at that point he would only need to achieve the same result as Sinner until the semifinals to overtake him definitively.
Or, in the event of yet another “Sincaraz” in the final, he would have to win it.
scenario— Of course, the shadows would be dispelled if another Slam were to be added to Jannik’s trophy cabinet. The Italian feels at home on hard courts and has already triumphed at the US Open in 2024. One thing is certain, however: the Italian’s extraordinary run at the end of last year will see him face other tough challenges from September to November. These include the 1,000 points in Shanghai and success at the ATP Finals in Turin. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has only one title to defend: the 500 in Beijing (which he won in the final against the Italian). The risk of being overtaken, therefore, exists. No drama for Sinner, mind you: Jannik, a fresh 24-year-old, missed over three months of the season due to his suspension over the Clostebol affair. And his 2025, given the Australian Open-Wimbledon double, is already legendary.
