Will ‘Big Foe’ also take the third hurdle?

For the 13th time in his career, Adrian Mannarino is currently competing in the US Open. The Frenchman has previously reached the third round four times, but has always failed there so far. Now he wants to finally reach the round of 16 at his fifth attempt in Flushing Meadows. However, according to the bookmakers, Adrian Mannarino vs. Frances Tiafoe is much more likely to be won by the American.

Frances Tiafoe was already in the semifinals of the US Open a year ago and has also been able to improve steadily in the current year, which has already brought him two tournament victories. However, the American has been eliminated in the third round of all three Grand Slam tournaments in the 2023 season. Nevertheless, with Adrian Mannarino against Frances Tiafoe, our prediction goes to the advancement of the world number ten.

By the way, both players faced each other exactly five years ago at the important hard court Grand Slam tournament in the United States of America. Back then, Frances Tiafoe celebrated a 3:1 victory (6:1, 6:4, 4:6 and 6:4) over Adrian Mannarino in the first round, in which the match went over four sets and a total of 37 games.

That seems to be a conceivable result this time as well, because we don’t trust the Frenchman to win more than a single set anyway. Therefore, it is very coherent to bet that the American will prevail in under 37.5 games.

Adrian Mannarino – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 35
Position in the seedings: 22

The 35-year-old Frenchman Adrian Mannarino looks back on a long and by no means unsuccessful career. Since his debut at Grand Slam level at the French Open in 2008, he has hardly missed a Grand Slam tournament. Since the Australian Open in 2013, he has always been in the main draw of the four most important tournaments each year without exception.

In the process, he has reached the round of 16 at a Grand Slam four times – three times at Wimbledon and once at the Australian Open. At Masters level, he most recently reached a quarterfinal in Cincinnati for the second time in his career.

Won only 16% of all matches against top 10 players

But the fact that in the decisive rounds there was usually nothing more to be gained is mainly due to the poor record that the Frenchman has against top 10 players. The 35-year-old has won just ten of his 61 singles matches against an opponent from the current top 10.

In other words, as soon as the level rose, it was the end of the line for Adrian Mannarino in 84% of all cases. However, three of his ten victories against top 10 players date back to 2023, when he won only the third singles title of his career on the ATP Tour. In July, the man from Soisy-sous-Montmorency triumphed at the Hall of Fame Open in Newport.

With two 3:1 wins into the third round

And Adrian Mannarino’s game lives decisively from his strong serve, which ultimately carried him into the third round at this year’s US Open. In the duel with Fabian Marozsan (ATP 92) in the second round, he not only won 73% of the points on the first serve, but also 52% of the points on the second serve.

However, the 35-year-old also allowed eight opponent break points, three of which he was unable to fend off. As a result, it was “only” a 3:1 victory in the end, just like in the opening match against Yosuke Watanuki. Consequently, the odds now favor the Frenchman in Adrian Mannarino’s match against Frances Tiafoe.

Frances Tiafoe – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 10
Position in the seedings: 10

The 25-year-old American Frances Tiafoe started on the ATP Tour with plenty of advance praise. Although he did not win a Grand Slam title in his junior career – his best result was a semifinal in the boys’ singles at the US Open in 2014 – he did win a number of top tournaments and was ranked second in the world junior rankings.

In the pros, it took a while for the man from Hyattsville to fully develop his potential. As early as 2018, however, he was able to bite his way into the top 50 of the ATP world rankings. “Big Foe” recorded his greatest success a year ago when he reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the 2022 US Open.

The path to the quarterfinals would be clear

The player, who has meanwhile climbed into the top 10 of the ATP world rankings, would very much like to build on that this year. He has already advanced easily to the third round with two commanding 3-0 wins over Learner Tien and Sebastian Ofner, dropping just eight games in total in both three-set victories.

In this context, Adrian Mannarino’s betting on Frances Tiafoe is also very good, with the American once again making it to the round of 16 at Flushing Meadows, where Casper Ruud might not be waiting, but either his defeater Zhizhen Zhang or wildcard Rinky Hijikata. The jump to the quarterfinals seems to be definitely feasible.

Won 35 of 49 singles matches in 2023

For Frances Tiafoe, too, the hard-to-defend service has been the big weapon so far, giving him not only the two 3-0 wins at the US Open, but also two singles titles already in the 2023 calendar year with a record of 35 wins versus 14 losses.

In addition to a clay-court tournament in Houston, which he won in April, the 25-year-old also celebrated a tournament victory on grass in Stuttgart in June, which now brings his total to three titles on the ATP Tour.

Adrian Mannarino – Frances Tiafoe Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 1:1

The two players have faced each other a total of two times so far, with both matches coming in hard court matches in the United States of America. In 2016, Adrian Mannarino defeated his opponent outright 2-0 in Washington, before Frances Tiafoe returned the favor two years later at the 2018 US Open. In the opening match, the American prevailed 3-1 (6-1, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4) over the Frenchman.

Adrian Mannarino – Frances Tiafoe Tip

While the “head to head” comparison between the two athletes is even (1:1). Nevertheless, in Adrian Mannarino vs Frances Tiafoe our prediction clearly tends to the advancement of the American, who was able to improve considerably last year and was already in the semifinals of the US Open in the fall of 2022. His French challenger, on the other hand, has never made it past the third round at Flushing Meadows in four previous attempts and has lost 51 of his 61 career singles matches against top-10 players.

There is therefore a lot of value in betting that the American will beat the Frenchman in a maximum of 37 games and punch his ticket to the round of 16 at the US Open 2023. After all, the match didn’t last any longer than that in his 3:1 victory over Mannarino five years ago.

Interwetten is offering betting odds of 2.15 on Adrian Mannarino vs Frances Tiafoe for the American to win in under 37.5 games, which we’re bumping up to three units.