The Lithuanian champions are considered clear favourites
There are still six places available in the UEFA Champions League group stage. For the first teams, the dream of the top flight will already fail this week, as the second legs in the first qualifying round are on the agenda. A total of 30 national champions are represented in this round and are fighting for a place in the next round. In Lithuania, Zalgiris Vilnius and Ballkani from Kosovo will face each other in the next round.
For the loser of this knockout duel, the international adventure does not end immediately, as the loser will move on to the second qualifying round of the fledgling UEFA Europa Conference League. There was no winner in the first leg last week and after the 1-1 draw in the first leg, the battle for promotion is still wide open. For the bookmakers, hosts Zalgiris Vilnius are the clear favourites against Ballkani according to current betting odds. A home win is offered at 1.90, while a win for the visitors tempts with odds of over 4.00.
In addition to the home advantage, the Lithuanians have another big advantage: the competition rhythm. While last week’s first leg was the first competitive match of the season for Ballkani, Zalgiris are in the regular rhythm as the championship is played according to the calendar year. The match at the LFF Stadium on Tuesday kicks off at 6pm.
Zalgiris Vilnius – Statistics & current form
The club from the capital advanced to the most successful club in the A Lyga of Lithuania in recent years. The club can now call nine championships its own, with Zalgiris Vilnius celebrating no fewer than six titles since 2013. This season, head coach Vladimir Cheburin’s team has the chance to win the title triple. After 2020 and 2021, the aim is to win the title again this year – and the chances of doing so are very good.
Without competition in the league
18 of the 36 league games have already been played in A Lyga 2022 and with 41 points the double winners are once again at the top. The lead over Panevezys is currently five points. Twelve of the 18 games were won, five times the points were shared and only in the duel with Kauno Zalgiris was there a 1:2 defeat.
Two goals conceded are a rarity anyway, as the league leaders conceded only twelve in total. In eleven of the 18 games, the team even remained without conceding a goal. With these figures, the prediction between Zalgiris Vilnius and Ballkani is that not both teams will score.
Zalgiris Vilnius is a mixed team, with no less than 17 legionnaires in the line-up. With Oliver Buff there is a Swiss in the squad and also veteran Jakub Sylvestr (long time in Nuremberg) might still be known to many fans. However, he is not beyond the wild card role, in the offensive Josip Tadic (was formerly in Bielefeld, Leverkusen and Sturm Graz) and top goal scorer Renan Olivera (eight season goals) are set.
Predicted line-up of Zalgiris Vilnius:
Gertmonas – Mamic, Ljubiasvljevic, Pavelic, Mikoliunas – Ourega, Gorobsov, Kyeremeh – Buff – Tadic, Renan Olivera
Last matches played by Zalgiris Vilnius:
Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Ballkani 1 – 1 Zalgiris Vilnius
A Lyga
01/07/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius 2 – 1 Hegelmann
26/06/2022 – Suduva 0 – 5 Zalgiris Vilnius
22/06/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius – 2 – 1 Dziugas Telsiai
19/06/2022 – FK Panevezys 0 – 2 Zalgiris Vilnius
Ballkani – Statistics & current form
KF Ballkani is a club from Suhareka, a town of just under 10,000 inhabitants, and achieved the greatest success in the club’s history last season, as head coach Ilir Daja’s side celebrated their first title win in 2021/22 after a cup triumph in 2020. After two third-place finishes in a row, the Daja eleven prevailed in commanding fashion, with KF Ballkani holding a comfortable twelve-point lead over runners-up FC Drita in the final standings.
Debut on the international stage
Kosovo is still a relatively young UEFA member and while the national team has already achieved some respectable success on the international stage, the club teams still have some catching up to do. At least here, too, the development is right and thanks to the performances of the last few years, there are even four international tickets up for grabs this season.
This has not been the case so far and despite two third-place finishes in 2019/20 and 2020/21, Ballkani have so far been denied an appearance on the international stage. Last week’s first leg was therefore their debut and Tuesday’s away game in Lithuania will be Ballkani’s first competitive match outside their own borders. A historic moment, but one in which the visitors are considered clear underdogs.
An assessment that is also absolutely understandable based on the underlying away statistics. On the way to the premiere title last year, Ballkani collected an average of 2.44 points per game at home, while away from home the figure was only 1.78 points per game. The offensive in particular lacks a bit of a scoring threat away from home. 41 goals were scored at home, only 20 away from home.
No international experience, not a single player known beyond the country’s borders, and the significantly weaker performances away from home are strong indications that between Zalgiris Vilnius and Ballkani, a tip in the direction of the home side is much more promising.
Predicted line-up of Ballkani:
Frasheri – Astrit Thaqi, Dellova, Jashanica, Armend Thaqi – Kuc, Emerllahu – Krasniqi, Korenica, Gripshi – Berisha
Last matches played by Ballkani:
Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Ballkani 1 – 1 Zalgiris Vilnius
Superliga
22/05/2022 – Ballkani 2 – 0 Gjilani
15/05/2022 – Drenica 3 – 1 Ballkani
08/05/2022 – Feronikeli 0 – 2 Ballkani
05/05/2022 – Ballkani 2 – 3 Malisheva
Zalgiris Vilnius – Ballkani Direct comparison / H2H balance
The first leg last weekend was not only the first test of strength for both teams, but also the first international match in the club’s history for the Kosovar champions Ballkani. The home side were already jubilant after 15 minutes, but just ten minutes later Swiss legionnaire Buff equalised 1-1 for the Lithuanian champions. Although Ballkani set the tone after that, they were unable to make a decisive impact against the defensively-minded visitors.
Zalgiris Vilnius – Ballkani tip
Ballkani were definitely closer to victory in last week’s first leg, but they are still recommended to bet on the hosts in the second leg between Zalgiris Vilnius and Ballkani. The Kosovar debutants are anything but strong away from home, while the Lithuanians will be far more dominant in front of their home crowd. Apart from the crowd, international experience also favours the home side, with Zalgiris regularly playing on the international stage.
Qualitatively, the actual performance of the two clubs is difficult to classify, but the underlying data and statistics underline the bookmakers’ assessment. Between Zalgiris Vilnius and Ballkani, the prediction on the home win is definitely justified.
A “value bet” is the bet on HT/FT 1/1, because the Lithuanian champions present themselves as strong as an ox, especially in the first half. In the domestic championship, Zalgiris has a 21:3 goal ratio in the first 45 minutes (second half 19:9). The 3s odds for the HT/FT 1/1 bet are accordingly interesting
