Will one goal decide the outcome of the match?
With Wolverhampton and Southampton, two in-form teams meet next Saturday. Wolves have lost just two of their last eight Premier League matches and impressed in their last league game to date with an away win at Manchester United.
Meanwhile, Ralph Hasenhüttl’s visitors are unbeaten in four matches in the English top flight and have catapulted themselves from the bottom of the table to a secure mid-table position. Although there is usually a lot to be said for expecting a few goals in a clash between two self-confident teams, it is a different story in this encounter. Between Wolverhampton and Southampton the odds imply a low-scoring game.
This assessment is, of course, based primarily on the home side’s recent results. The last time Wolves scored two goals in a Premier League match was at the beginning of November. If the defence remains solid at the weekend, the Wolverhampton vs. Southampton clash could even be predicted as a home win, as it is unlikely that the far more vulnerable Saints will be able to keep things tight.
Wolverhampton – Statistics & current form
Minimalism has a name in England: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Only last-placed Norwich City have scored less often than the Wolves so far this season, and with just 14 goals scored they are the second weakest attackers in the Premier League.
It is all the more surprising, however, that the Orange and Blacks, currently in eighth place, are still playing a good role in the table and could even catch up with the international ranks if they win the second leg. They owe this promising starting position to their outstanding defence, which has conceded only 14 goals. Again, only leaders Manchester City have conceded fewer goals (13).
15 of 16 Wolves games have ended with a one-goal or less margin of victory
The closeness of games involving coach Bruno Lage’s side is usually underlined by the crazy statistic that the Wanderers’ most recent eight league games have ended with a maximum of one goal. In five matches, the correct end result was 1:0 or 0:1, while the other three matches even ended goalless. Therefore, a bet on the under 2.5 can also be made with a clear conscience between Wolverhampton and Southampton. Three or more goals have only been scored three times in the Wolves’ entire season.
We also think a home win is not unlikely, although Wolves have been more convincing away than at home so far. Nevertheless, they have already won comparable home games this season, such as against West Ham (2:0) or Everton (2:1). There was also a respectable 0-0 draw against Chelsea and an unfortunate last-minute defeat against Liverpool (0-1).
Should the ninth-placed side, who have picked up seven points from their last three games and have not conceded a goal, manage to score on Saturday, the likelihood of victory increases many times over. In the absence of top marksman Hwang Hee-Chan, Raul Jimenez has the best chance of scoring. The Mexican has been directly involved in five goals in his last six games against the Saints. Also unavailable are Mosquera, Neto, Castro, Boly and Saiss.
Predicted Wolverhampton line-up:
Sa; Dendoncker, Coady, Kilman; Semedo, Neves, Moutinho, Marcal; Podence, Jimenez, Trincao
Last matches played by Wolverhampton:
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Wolverhampton 3 – 0 Sheffield United
Premier League
01/03 2022 – Manchester United 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
12/19 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Chelsea London
12/15 2021 – Brighton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
12/11 2021 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
Southampton – Statistics & current form
Southampton Football Club are in good form at the moment. The team of manager Ralph Hasenhüttl has not lost five consecutive matches. While they have seven points from four Premier League games, the Saints struggled to a 3-2 extra-time win at Swansea City in the FA Cup the previous week.
However, this was also a positive result, as they had to play almost 100 minutes in a shorthanded game and actually managed to score two goals in extra time despite being 1:2 down.
The upward trend in form over the last few weeks is partly due to the much improved offensive performance. In the last four Premier League games alone, ten goals were scored. By comparison, the Saints had scored just 14 goals in the first 16 matchdays of the current season. However, the new offensive urge has also been accompanied by defensive lapses, as reflected in the fact that Hasenhüttl’s eleven have failed to score nine times in a row.
Southampton remain weak away from home
Another shortcoming remains the weak record away from home. Only two of the ten away games so far have been victorious. Only Leeds United have conceded more goals at home than the Saints, who are aiming for back-to-back away wins in the Premier League for the first time since June 2020. Most recently, they celebrated a 3-2 win at West Ham United, albeit a very fortunate one.
In our eyes, it is definitely too risky to play the odds on a point win for the visitors between Wolverhampton and Southampton. Despite the good form, the away weakness cannot be denied. In the recent past, the southerners usually needed more than one goal to take three points. We don’t think that’s exactly the case this time, especially as Livramento, Smallbone, Walker-Peters and Djenepo are four players who are not unimportant.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster; Bednarek, Lyanco, Salisu; Tella, Diallo, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Perraud; Adams, Broja
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
01/11 2022 – Southampton 4 – 1 Brentford
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Swansea 2 – 3 Southampton
Premier League
12/28 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Tottenham
12/26 2021 – West Ham 2 – 3 Southampton
12/15 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 2 Southampton
Wolverhampton – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record
33 times this clash has taken place so far in the top flight of English football. Wolves lead the direct comparison by a whisker with 13 wins compared to 12 defeats and eight draws. The Saints have not won any of the last five away games at the Molineux Stadium. In the past eleven league encounters, Wolves have conceded only one defeat (six wins, four draws). The Wanderers have scored at least one goal against Southampton ten times in a row
Wolverhampton – Southampton Tip
Admittedly, it would be unimaginative to tip on the under 2.5 between Wolverhampton and Southampton. Only in three Wolves games this season has that mark been broken. In the last eight games of the ninth-placed team, a maximum of one goal was scored. It is therefore only logical that the corresponding odds on under-goals are very low.
We are therefore leaning towards a home win and justify this on the one hand with the fact that Southampton are extremely weak away from home and conceded the second most goals of all first division teams. On the other hand, the Wanderers have lost only one of the last eleven direct PL duels against the Saints, which points to a good constellation for the better-placed team in the standings.
In conclusion, the home side might just need one goal to take three points. The defence of coach Bruno Lage’s team is like a bulwark with only 14 goals conceded, which is why we would play the betting odds on a home three-goal win in the Wolverhampton vs Southampton clash.
