Low-scoring fare at Molineux?
Wolverhampton against Nottingham is a basement duel in the Premier League. The match will be the first in the Premier League and the last meeting in the country’s top flight took place in March 1984 (1-0 win for Wolverhampton).
The home side are currently third last and the visitors second last. Both teams have severe problems on the offensive. The Wanderers, for example, have the weakest offence with three goals after nine rounds of play and the newcomer hardly scores better.
On the contrary, seven goals represent the second-worst yield. For the match at Molineux between Wolverhampton and Nottingham, the tip aims for a maximum of two goals by the final whistle.
Wolverhampton – Statistics & Current Form
One indication of how weak Wolverhampton’s attack is is that the hosts rank last in the Premier League in shot conversion at 3.9 per cent. Furthermore, last season’s tenth-placed team is last in shot accuracy at 35.1 per cent, with only 27 of the 77 shots on goal successfully hitting the target.
Wolverhampton also have an Expected Goals score of -5.7 – the worst in the league. The result of the second halves of the game is really bitter: The Wanderers are the only team still waiting for their first goal in the second half.
Davis ahead of his second game as coach
It is also questionable whether interim coach Steve Davis, who previously coached the U18s of the “Wolves”, can set new impulses. On his debut last weekend, it was once again not enough for a goal against Chelsea by the three-time champions, last in 1959.
In terms of the upcoming game, the hopes in the forward play lie on Diego Costa. The Spaniard was signed in mid-September but has only made two appearances for the home side.
A lack of fitness and an injury delayed his start for Wolves. However, he has been on board for two games and the ex-Atletico Madrid and Chelsea player has a penchant for Premier League encounters with promoted sides. In fact, he was involved in twelve goals against newcomers in 16 appearances in the division (10 goals & 2 assists)! However, it can be stated that the third best goal scorer in La Liga in the 2013/14 season is now already over his zenith at the age of 34. Whether he can really help the team from the West Midlands can be justifiably doubted.
Various failures in the offensive line
Furthermore, the attack of the four-time FA Cup winners is still missing important players such as the Mexican Raul Jimenez or the Portuguese Chiquinho. Austrian attacker Saša Kalajdžić, who was only brought in from Stuttgart during the course of the season, also has to miss out uninterruptedly due to a serious injury.
In light of these points, betting on a maximum of one goal by the home side in the clash between Wolverhampton and Nottingham is also worth considering.
Predicted Wolverhampton line-up:
Jose Sa – Toti – Kilman – Jonny – Matheus Nunes – Moutinho – Traore – Podence – Guedes – Costa
Last matches played by Wolverhampton:
Premier League
08/10/2022 – Chelsea FC 3 – 0 Wolverhampton
01/10/2022 – West Ham 2 – 0 Wolverhampton
17/09/2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 3 Manchester City
03/09/2022 – Wolverhampton 1 – 0 Southampton
01/09/2022 – Bournemouth 0 – 0 Wolverhampton
Nottingham – Statistics & current form
The attack of the promoted side has been convincing at best in the first half so far this season. Five of their seven goals this season were scored before the break. The yield is of course fundamentally poor and is only undercut by the upcoming opponent in the Premier League.
Furthermore, the defence often deteriorates in the second half of the game: 14 of the 22 goals conceded, the second highest tally after Leicester (24), were conceded by the “Tricky Trees” after half-time. This equates to 64 per cent of all goals conceded and is only exceeded by four teams in the division.
No team in the Premier League concedes more shots on goal
The difficulties of the Reds’ defence can also be seen in the high number of 148 shots on goal the East Midlands side have conceded so far this season – the highest in the PL!
In addition, coach Steve Cooper’s team has only managed one clean sheet. The fact that the two-time winners of the European Champions Cup (1979 & 1980) have already committed 100 fouls – only Aston Villa (114) and Leeds (120) exceed this number – can also be taken as evidence of an often overstretched Forest backline.
Ex-Mainz Niakhaté still missing
The problems in defence at the 1978 champions also arise from the personnel situation. With Moussa Niakhaté, an important newcomer has already been out for around two months.
The highly talented defender came from Mainz 05 and also plays for the French U21 national team. His defensive colleague Omar Richards, who was brought in from Bayern Munich before the season, has also suffered the same fate. In view of this, despite the weak home attack in the clash between Wolverhampton and Nottingham, the odds on a home win are of interest.
Predicted line-up of Nottingham:
Henderson – McKenna – Cook – Aurier – Toffolo – Kouyate – Freuler – Yates – Johnson – Dennis – Gibbs-White
Last Nottingham games:
Premier League
11/10/2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Aston Villa
04/10/2022 – Leicester 4 – 0 Nottingham Forest
17/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Fulham
03/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Bournemouth
01/09/2022 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Wolverhampton – Nottingham Direct comparison / H2H record
The last direct duel took place in August last year. In the EFL Cup Wolverhampton won clearly with 4-0 away.
The last time the teams faced each other at league level was in the 2017/18 season. The games took place in the Championship and also ended with an away win in each case. Due to five years between that and the current clash, the league comparison between Wolverhampton and Nottingham does not influence our prediction.
Wolverhampton – Nottingham Tip
The weakest offensive and second-worst defensive teams meet in this match. A starting position that can be summarised with the words “misery against misery”.
Moreover, the home side has lost the last three league games and always without scoring a goal of their own. The visitors also hardly know the feeling of victory: For six rounds of matches they have been waiting for the next sense of achievement and only one of these matches was not lost.
For the match between Wolverhampton and Nottingham, the prediction, at fair odds, of less than three goals by the final whistle now seems profitable. In addition to the respective weak offensives, the character of the match speaks for this prediction.
Both teams do not want to lose against a direct competitor in the relegation battle, which suggests a very tactical match. Moreover, six of the home side’s nine games have ended with less than 2.5 goals and the average of 1.7 goals per league game is the lowest in the Premier League!
