Will United lose at Wolves?
The start to Julen Lopetegui’s tenure at Wolverhampton Wanderers could hardly have gone better in terms of results. Under the Spaniard’s guidance, Wolves celebrated two important victories in the League Cup and the Premier League and are now looking forward to a real highlight in front of their home crowd against Manchester United on New Year’s Eve.
The Orange and Black have fond memories of their last meeting against the Red Devils, as Wolves took all three points from Old Trafford in January 2022. Now, for the first time since 1979/80, Wolverhampton could win two in a row against Manchester United. However, betting on this is very risky, as the two teams are not only separated by 16 points, but also by 13 ranks.
Despite this, many of the meagre statistics regarding the home team should not be taken at face value, as the quality of the squad is actually more than that and there is much to suggest that the West Midlands outfit will make a leap up the table under their new coach. For this reason, our first approach is not to make a prediction on the away win between Wolverhampton and Manchester United. The ten Hag team could find it harder than expected.
Wolverhampton – Statistics & current form
Julen Lopetegui is a renowned coach who has seen a lot in his career. The former goalkeeper first made a name for himself as a youth coach at the Spanish Football Federation, before he was even trusted as Spain’s new national coach via Porto. After a brief interlude at Real Madrid, the 56-year-old shaped a successful era at Sevilla FC, which was crowned with the Europa League victory in 2020.
But Lopetegui has now taken on perhaps his most difficult task at Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League. Hardly any team in the English top flight lags as far behind its own expectations as Wolves, who still occupy one of the three relegation places after 16 matchdays and are struggling with many different construction sites.
Wolves under Lopetegui with new courage
Of particular concern is the harmless attack, which has only managed ten goals and is the weakest attacking line in the league. Things have not gone according to plan for the Orange and Blacks in front of their home crowd at the Molineux Stadium either. Only Southampton have collected fewer points at home than the Wanderers, who also have the least dangerous home attack in the Premier League with five goals scored.
If we go by the numbers, it is almost impossible to look at the odds on the hosts between Wolverhampton and Manchester United. As already mentioned in the introduction, however, we have to make allowances, because after the signing of Lopetegui, last year’s tenth-placed team also celebrated two victories in two competitive matches after the World Cup break. After a 2-0 win over Gillingham in the Carabao Cup, a last-minute goal at Goodison Park was enough to secure a 2-1 win over Everton in the basement.
With fresh confidence behind them and the statistic that Wolves have lost only one of their past nine league games on the last day of the year (four wins, four draws), we would refrain from predicting an away win in the Wolverhampton vs Manchester United clash. It is more exciting to combine the double chance X2 with a maximum of three goals in the course of the match, as six of the previous eight PL home matches resulted in a maximum of three goals.
Predicted Wolverhampton line-up:
Sa; Semedo, Collins, Kilman, Ait-Nouri; Nunes, Neves, Moutinho; Hwang, Costa, Guedes
Last matches played by Wolverhampton:
Premier League
26/12/2022 – Everton 1 – 2 Wolverhampton
Carabao Cup
21/12/2022 – Wolverhampton 2 – 0 Gillingham
Club Friendlies
14/12/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 4 Wolverhampton
09/12/2022 – Empoli 1 – 1 Wolverhampton
Premier League
13/11/2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 2 FC Arsenal
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
For all fans of rehearsed standard situations, Manchester United’s 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest was a real eye-opener. After a rehearsed variation from the right side, Marcus Rashford was free to shoot and welded the ball into the net for an early lead. That goal set the stage for a commanding 3-0 home win over the overmatched promoted side.
Thanks to the fifth win in the seventh PL home match of the current season, the Red Devils remain on top and could even jump up to third position in the event of another three-goal win in the match that is still to be made up.
Man Utd are struggling away from home
There is still room for improvement away from home, however, as their record after eight away matches is only just positive with four wins, one draw and three defeats. The goal difference of 11:16 underlines the fact that the ten Hag eleven has far more problems in opposing stadiums to bring the available horsepower onto the pitch.
However, it should be taken into account that 13 of the aforementioned 16 goals were conceded in the matches at Manchester City (3:6), Brentford (0:4) and Aston Villa (1:3). In the other five matches away from home, meanwhile, the bet on the under 3.5 would always have gone through. With this in mind, it is definitely worth considering the odds on a low-scoring game between Wolverhampton and Manchester United. Even the under 2.5 definitely seems within the realm of possibility.
On the positive side, the English record champions have never lost their last competitive match in the last ten years (seven wins, three draws). However, the task against Wolves will not be a foregone conclusion, especially as United have only scored nine goals in their eleven most recent direct encounters in the competition. In terms of personnel, the Dutch coach has few worries. Among others, Maguire could also make his starting eleven comeback at the World Cup in Qatar.
Predicted Manchester United line-up:
De Gea; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Maguire, Shaw; Casemiro, Eriksen; Antony, Fernandes, Rashford; Martial
Last matches played by Manchester United:
Premier League
28/12/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Carabao Cup
22/12/2022 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Burnley
Club friendlies
10/12/2022 – Real Betis 1 – 0 Manchester United
08/12/2022 – Cadiz 4 – 2 Manchester United
Premier League
13/11/2022 – Fulham 1 – 2 Manchester United
Wolverhampton – Manchester United Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the 91st time these clubs have faced each other in the English top flight. Manchester United have won 41 times, while Wolves have also come out on top on 33 occasions. 16 draws complete the tally.
The Red Devils have won their last two away games at the Molineux Stadium. However, the record holders have never left the West Midlands with a treble on three consecutive occasions. It is also exciting to note that in none of the last eight meetings in England’s top division have more than three goals been scored. Will there be few goals to admire again on New Year’s Eve?
Wolverhampton – Manchester United Tip
Just a few months ago, Manchester United would have been the clear winners in this clash. In the meantime, the Wolves must be expected to spring a surprise. The reason for this is the signing of Julen Lopetegui, who led his new team to two victories in their first two matches. Nevertheless, it is clear that the match against the Red Devils will be a different challenge than the games against Gillingham and Everton.
Nevertheless, we are not betting on an away win between Wolverhampton and Manchester United, arguing among other things that Bruno Fernandes and Co. have found it harder to win away than at home this season. Apart from that, the orange and black team is stronger than the standings suggest. Especially in defence.
In our eyes, it is therefore more promising to combine the betting odds on the double chance X2 with the under 3.5 before the match between Wolverhampton and Manchester United. At the top, a 1.68 beckons, which we confidently call with six units.
