Will Wolves underpin European ambitions?
The many match postponements this season mean that hardly a day goes by without Premier League soccer at the moment. After catch-up games were on the schedule during the week, the 30th matchday of the current season will open at Molineux Stadium on Friday evening. Wolverhampton and Leeds United will face each other at 9 p.m.
For both teams an absolutely trend-setting game. The home side can underpin their ambitions to return to Europe with a home win and climb to sixth place. For the visitors, with ex-Leipzig coach Jesse Marsch, a win would be tantamount to a very big step towards staying in the league. Leeds are currently four points clear of the bottom of the league.
Although Wolves have 20 points more to their name and have won two games to nil, the best bookmakers are offering odds of well over 2.00 on a home win in Wolverhampton vs Leeds.
Wolverhampton – statistics & current form
The mini-crisis is over – that’s the conclusion after the two most recent league games of Wolverhampton Wanderers. After only one defeat from eight PL games, the Lage eleven lost three in a row. The Portuguese head coach then took an all-out attack, criticizing his young players in particular for not being 100% on their game. It was a wake-up call that had an effect, as a 4-0 win over Watford and a 1-0 win over Everton brought about a convincing turnaround.
Only eight goals were scored on either side
Once again, only one team scored in a Wolves game. With an average of only 1.79 goals per match, games involving the Lage eleven are not recommended for fans of cultivated attacking soccer anyway. In just eight of the 29 league games so far, there have been goals from both teams.
Unsurprisingly, this is the lowest figure in the entire Premier League. Only once in Premier League history has there been a team with a single-digit number of both-to-score games – Friday’s opponents, Leeds United, in the 1996/97 season.
Portuguese goalkeeper Jose Sa has kept his box clean eleven times this season. Only the top four (Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal) have had more “to-nil” games this season.
Good Friday Balance
With the two recent victories, the Lage eleven underlined their ambitions towards Europe. Currently Wolverhampton ranks eighth, but could overtake the competition from London (West Ham and Tottenham) at least in the short term. In addition to the direct comparison, another statistic speaks in favor of the home side.
Friday games are rather rare in the Premier League, which is a shame for Wolves. After all, the record on Fridays reads very positively from their point of view. Wolverhampton have won four of their last five Friday matches and have not conceded a goal on four occasions. So there are plenty of arguments for predicting a home win in Wolverhampton’s clash with Leeds.
Predicted lineup of Wolverhampton:
Sa – Saiss, Coady, Kilman – Marcal, Neves, Moutinho, Dendoncker, Otto – Hwang, Jimenez
Last matches played by Wolverhampton:
Premier League
03/13 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
03/10 2022 – Wolverhampton 4 – 0 Watford
03/05 2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
02/27 2022 – West Ham 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
02/24 2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Wolverhampton
Leeds – Statistics & current form
American in the Premier League? With open arms Jesse Marsch was definitely not welcomed at Leeds. For one thing, Marcelo Bielsa’s footsteps are huge, and Leeds even named a street after “El Locco” in his honor. Despite the misery, the dismissal was viewed critically from many sides. In addition, American coaches have not yet celebrated any great successes in the Premier League. “Soccer,” after all, is a no-go for fans from the motherland of soccer.
Negative run stopped
A new impetus was probably indispensable from the point of view of last year’s promoted team, however. After all, the team couldn’t come close to matching its performance from the previous year. Back then, Leeds had collected 39 points after 29 matchdays; this year, it’s exactly a third less. In addition, Leeds has scored 14 fewer goals, but conceded an impressive 18 more than in the previous season.
Especially away from home, Leeds has slipped into a debacle several times recently. The three most recent away games were all lost, with a goal difference of 0:10. At least the negative spiral has come to a (temporary) end. Leeds showed great morale in the relegation battle against the Canaries from Norwich. After the equalizer in minute 91, Jesse Marsch proved a golden touch. Youngster Joe Gelhardt came into the game in minute 92 and was the match-winner with two minutes left. The first win after eight games without a win provides a small cushion of four points on the first relegation place.
Zero? Not at Leeds
In terms of defense, the Whites are the antithesis of Wolves, with no other goalkeeper having to make more saves than Ilhan Meslier this season. 65 goals conceded in 29 games is ten more than the second weakest defense (Watford). Leeds have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 15 league games. The last time Leeds had a longer series without conceding a goal was from October 2004 to January 2005.
The extremely weak defense is certainly an argument that supports a bet on the over 2.5 in the duel Wolverhampton against Leeds. Another argument is the return of top scorer Patrick Bamford. The 28-year-old was in the starting lineup for the Whites for the first time since mid-September in the 2-1 win over Norwich.
Predicted Leeds lineup:
Meslier – Dallas, Struijk, Llorente, Ayling – Klich, Forshaw – Raphinha, Rodrigo, James – Bamford
Last matches played by Leeds:
Premier League
03/13 2022 – Leeds 2 – 1 Norwich
03/10 2022 – Leeds 0 – 3 Aston Villa
03/05 2022 – Leicester 1 – 0 Leeds
02/26 2022 – Leeds 0 – 4 Tottenham
02/23 2022 – Liverpool FC 6 – 0 Leeds
Wolverhampton – Leeds Direct Comparison / H2H Record
In October 2016, Leeds celebrated a 1-0 home victory against Wolves in the second-tier Championship. This triumph was the last success for the Whites, as in the last six league matches between Wolverhampton and Leeds, the bet on a Wolves win was crowned with success no less than five times.
Only once Leeds managed to gain a point with a draw. In the top division, Leeds has been waiting for an away win at Molineux Stadium since September 1973 (!). They have failed to win nine times in a row, and all of their five most recent first division outings have ended in defeat.
Wolverhampton – Leeds Tip
Home strength coupled with convincing defensive work receives the weakest defense in the league, which recently went down several times, especially away from home. In addition, the direct comparison also points the pendulum clearly in the direction of the home side. In fact, there are many strong arguments for a home win in the duel between Wolverhampton and Leeds. A 2.20 for the success of the home side certainly offers value
Our betting recommendation, however, is a different tip and that is the one on the over 2.5. Given that Wolves have managed to keep the zero eleven times this season, a little surprising. But Leeds, under new coach Jesse Marsch, operates with more counter-pressing and accordingly much more offensively.
In addition, Patrick Bamford (top scorer since Leeds’ PL return despite several months off with injury) is fit to play again. The defensive weakness is also not to be denied and with an average of 3.31 goals per Leeds game (league high), the 2.00 definitely holds value.
