Will Wolves end their mini crisis against the Lions?
Before the international break, Wolverhampton Wanderers have lost four of their last six league games. That is as many defeats as the current eighth-placed team has suffered in the previous 19 league games. In particular, the otherwise compact defence has conceded a total of eight goals in these four defeats and it is now imperative that they stabilise their position again.
The Villans are a team that has been on the rise since the winter break. But the Lions have also lost their last two league games. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the clash between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa, the odds are slightly in favour of the visitors, who have won three of their last five league games.
The Villans also managed a 1-0 away win in their last away game at the Molineux Stadium. For the first time since January 2012, the Lions could now record two away wins in a row at Wolves, but that can also only work through a regained defensive stability.
We expect two teams that will have used the international break to make adjustments to their fundamentally good defence. In this context, there is a lot to be said for Wolverhampton against Aston Villa in favour of a low-scoring game
Wolverhampton – Statistics & current form
Wolverhampton Wanderers returned to the Premier League in the summer of 2018 as Championship champions. Just a year later, the West Midlands club even qualified for the Europa League, where their journey went all the way to the quarter-finals in the 2019/20 season.
Currently, Wolves are completing a transitional season of sorts. In the first season after the departure of successful coach Nuno Espírito Santo, the Wanderers merely bumbled along in the bottom half of the table in the first quarter of the current season.
Four defeats from the last six league games
In the meantime, however, Santo’s successor Bruno Lage has been able to make his mark on the team and establish Wolves in the chasing ranks. As eighth in the table, Wolverhampton still have a realistic chance of reaching international competition again.
However, the Wanderers got a bit off track, especially in the last few weeks before the international break. They have lost as many as four of their last six league games (two wins), conceding a total of eight goals in those six games – as many as they conceded in the 14 Premier League games prior to that in total.
The fourth best defence in the Premier League
Never the less, the West Midlands club remains an extremely compact club defensively. The only 26 goals conceded equates to the fourth best figure in the Premier League, with no other team so good at thwarting opponents’ chances.
Wolves’ opponents have already fired 377 shots. The 26 goals conceded thus mean a rate of just 6.9% of all opposing shots that resulted in goals being conceded – a league-wide best. With this in mind, too, the betting on Wolverhampton against Aston Villa is favourable for a low-scoring match.
Predicted Wolverhampton line-up:
Sá – Ait Nouri – Saiss – Coady – Boly – Otto – Moutinho – Neves – Podence – Dendoncker – Silva
Last matches played by Wolverhampton:
Premier League
03/18 2022 – Wolverhampton 2 – 3 Leeds
03/13 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
03/10 2022 – Wolverhampton 4 – 0 Watford
03/05 2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
02/27 2022 – West Ham 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Aston Villa Football Club were last relegated from the Premier League in the summer of 2016. It took three years before the Lions were able to break free from the Championship, after which they just managed to stay in the league in 17th place in the final table of the 2019/20 season.
In the meantime, however, the traditional Birmingham club, who in addition to seven English championships even won the European Cup of Champions in 1982, have firmly re-established themselves in the country’s top division.
Also looking up thanks to Coutinho
The Claret & Blue Army are currently in a solid ninth place in the table, thanks in particular to the good work of Steven Gerrard, who took over as coach of the Villans in November.
Moreover, with new winter signing Philippe Coutinho on fire and already having seven goals in ten Premier League appearances (four goals, three draws), the overall picture is still looking up, despite another two defeats in a row before the international break.
The second most away defeats in the Premier League
There are nevertheless three wins on record in the Lions’ last five league games, which is why they come to the West Midlands as slight favourites.
However, there have also been nine defeats among the Claret & Blue Army’s 15 Premier League away games. Only Norwich have lost more matches away from home so far. Accordingly, it is coherent to refrain from the three-way system and instead bet on a rather low-scoring encounter.
Predicted line-up of Aston Villa:
Martínez – Young – Mings – Konsa – Cash – McGinn – Luiz – Ramsey – Coutinho – Buendía – Watkins
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
03/19 2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 FC Arsenal
03/13 2022 – West Ham 2 – 1 Aston Villa
03/10 2022 – Leeds 0 – 3 Aston Villa
03/05 2022 – Aston Villa 4 – 0 Southampton
02/26 2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Aston Villa
Wolverhampton – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 42 – 33 – 56
There have been a total of 131 meetings between the two teams so far and with 56 wins, the Villans lead the head-to-head comparison very clearly. The Lions also won 1-0 in their last outing at Molineux Stadium, but suffered a 3-2 defeat at home to Wolves in the first leg.
Wolverhampton – Aston Villa Tip
For Wolverhampton against Aston Villa, the prediction has to take into account that both teams, whose real strength can be found in their defensive qualities, have not been quite as stable recently. Accordingly, both coaches are likely to have worked hard during the break to readjust the defensive screws. This could well lead to a much lower number of goals than in the first leg.
In fact, in three of the last four encounters between the two clubs, only one goal was scored. That makes it all the more coherent to bet on under 2.5 goals in this clash. After all, Wolves also have the fourth-best defence in the entire Premier League
