Wölfe’s redemption?

The Bundesliga season is drawing to a close. Not all teams have yet achieved their goals, or the goals that have already been corrected. VfL Wolfsburg have still not been able to completely rid themselves of their relegation worries and will face FSV Mainz on Friday to kick off the 31st matchday. The Rheinhessen side have not yet officially celebrated their relegation either.

The Wolves have fallen far short of their potential this season and are currently only in 13th place. With 34 points, they are not through yet, although the cushion of six points on the relegation place is already very tidy. A win at home on Friday would bring the Lower Saxons one step closer to staying in the relegation zone, even though their pre-season goals were much higher.

Mainz should be through. The 40-point mark has not yet been cracked, but the 39 points mean an eleven-point lead down the table. Before the game between Wolfsburg and Mainz, no one will make a prediction about the Rheinhessen’s relegation. But there is no way up for the 05ers either. Bo Svensson’s team can therefore end the season without any pressure.

With Freiburg and Leipzig confirmed as cup finalists, seventh place is enough to enter the Conference League. But it is seven points until then. It will become clear on Friday whether the drop in tension at FSV is already noticeable.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

The discussions in Wolfsburg just don’t die down these days. After a weak season, Florian Kohfeldt is being questioned. At the moment, however, there is still support among the Wolves bosses for the coach, but if things get really tight again this season in the Bundesliga relegation battle, then it could be that the coach will not even finish this season at VfL.

Hope for home strength

Wins are the best application for continued cooperation. The only problem is that there haven’t been very many of them recently. The Wolves have only won two of the last eight Bundesliga games. At least things are going reasonably well at home, with only two defeats in the last six games. For the first time under Florian Kohfeldt, there could be two home wins in a row on Friday. We think the home record is a bit of an encouragement and therefore first look at the odds for a three-pointer for the hosts between Wolfsburg and Mainz.

Last weekend, however, there was another low point for the Lower Saxons. The VfL was badly beaten up in Dortmund. BVB already led 6:0 after less than an hour and then took several gears out of the game. In the final phase, Ridle Baku gave Wolfsburg a consolation goal.

After this debacle, there must be an act of defiance. Whether Florian Kohfeldt will give the personnel of the previous week the opportunity to do so remains to be seen. Maxence Lacroix will most likely not be available. In addition, the long-term injured Paulo Otavio and Willian will be missing. VfL Wolfsburg should be able to field all the other players on Friday.

Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Casteels – Mbabu, Bornauw, Brooks, Gerhardt – Arnold, Baku, Schlager – Wind, Kruse – L. Nmecha – Coach: Kohfeldt

Last matches played by Wolfsburg:

Bundesliga
16/04/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 1 VfL Wolfsburg

09/04/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 4 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld

03/04/2022 – Augsburg 3 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg

20/03/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

12/03/2022 – SC Freiburg 3 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg

Mainz – Statistics & current form

Doubts are rudimentary in Mainz. Manager Christian Heidel assumes that the Rheinhessen will continue to play in the top flight in the coming season. Things can’t be going that badly on the last four matchdays for the 05ers to be in any danger at all. Nevertheless, Bo Svensson’s team will be looking to pick up a few more points.

Away almost nothing goes

However, Mainz seem to have been confident for weeks and have apparently taken their foot off the gas a little. For four games, there has been no victory for the Rheinhessen. In the last seven games, there has only been one three-pointer. These are figures that do not support a forecast of an away win ahead of the clash between Wolfsburg and Mainz.

The 05ers don’t have much going for them away from home anyway. The Rheinhessen side have picked up just two draws from their last eleven away games and have lost nine times at home. Last weekend, Bo Svensson’s team did not manage more than a goalless draw at home against VfB Stuttgart. The Rheinhessen side missed several opportunities to win the game, especially in the closing stages.

On Friday in Wolfsburg, Aaron Martin will probably return to the team after serving his yellow ban. Young Niklas Tauer could also get another chance to prove himself. Delano Burgzorg, on the other hand, is still suffering from heart muscle inflammation. Alexander Hack, Jae-Sung Lee and Jeremiah St. Juste will not make the trip to Wolfsburg due to injury.

Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Tauer, Bell, Niakhate – Widmer, Kohr, Aaron – Stach, Boetius – Burkardt, Onisiwo – Coach: Svensson

Last matches played by Mainz:

Bundesliga
16/04/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 VfB Stuttgart

09/04/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Mainz 05

06/04/2022 – Augsburg 2 – 1 Mainz 05

03/04/2022 – Gladbach 1 – 1 Mainz 05

19/03/2022 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld

Wolfsburg – Mainz Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

With short interruptions, VfL Wolfsburg and Mainz 05 have been sporting companions since the early 90s. To date, 41 encounters between the two rivals have been recorded. In the direct comparison, the Wolves have the lead with 16:10 victories. In 15 duels between Wolfsburg and Mainz there has been no winner.

The Volkswagen Arena has rarely been a good place for the Rheinhessen side in recent years, who have won only one of their last eight games in Wolfsburg, but always the last one in May 2021. The first leg also went to the 05ers. In the Mewa Arena, goals from Jonathan Burkardt, Anton Stach and an own goal from Maxence Lacroix resulted in a clear 3:0 home victory.

Wolfsburg – Mainz Tip

Mainz should have nothing more to do with the relegation battle and perhaps that is why Bo Svensson’s team is a little out of steam. They haven’t won a match in four games and, especially away from home, they’ve basically got nothing going for them. In the last eleven away games, the Rheinhessen side has only managed to pick up two points. That’s why the 05ers should be the underdogs in Wolfsburg on Friday.

The Wolves are not exactly in the best of form either. At least Florian Kohfeldt’s team is still reasonably stable in its own arena and has won three of the last six matches there. However, the Wolves should still have the 1:6 defeat from the Easter weekend in Dortmund hanging in their clothes. Nevertheless, we still think that a home win between Wolfsburg and Mainz should be the better bet.

We can imagine reducing the risk a little and betting on a home win with the addition of DNB. However, we rate the Rheinhessen’s away misery with a high factor and therefore we have decided to play the higher betting odds on a normal home win in the match between Wolfsburg and Mainz.