Will the storks also pay dearly in the car city?

VfL Wolfsburg is one of those clubs this season that could benefit from the fact that established top clubs such as Borussia Dortmund or RB Leipzig are struggling. Currently, the Wolves are still flying somewhat under the radar, although the first three league games played in the 2025 football year were quite promising.

If the tip for the home win comes true on Friday evening at the start of the 18th matchday in the Bundesliga between Wolfsburg and Kiel, the Lower Saxony team would temporarily jump to sixth place and reduce the gap to a Champions League place to just two points.

The chances of the favorites getting the win are very good, because after all, Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team is facing the second-weakest away team in the league, which is still waiting for its first Bundesliga win away from home. Only one Bundesliga debutant remained in its first season in the top flight in the first nine guest appearances without three – Energie Cottbus 2000/01. The storks could now set this negative record, especially since there are statistically virtually no clues as to why the forecast for the match Wolfsburg against Kiel should be aligned with the Baltic Sea kickers.

In addition to the understandable advantages that VfL are given and which are also clearly reflected in the one-sided Wolfsburg vs. Kiel odds in the three-way market, the constellation on Friday evening also raises hopes for a goal-filled evening. Although KSV Holstein have had to learn a lot the hard way this season, the Rapp team has always been able to celebrate scoring goals.

Wolfsburg vs. Kiel prediction AI

Based on a wide range of data and multiple simulations, the artificial intelligence xG values of 2.29 to 0.93 favor VfL Wolfsburg. In view of the expected difference of 1.36 goals, “BETSiE” even assumes that the home side may win by more than one goal. From this, the AI forecast for the home win with Asian handicap (-1.25) can be worked out between Wolfsburg and Kiel.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

VfL Wolfsburg can be absolutely satisfied with the start to the 2025 football year so far. The Wolves celebrated victories in Hoffenheim (1-0) and at home against Gladbach (5-1) before suffering their first defeat last weekend in the Allianz Arena in Munich, despite putting in a courageous and good performance against the record champions, losing 3-2. Nevertheless, they can be proud of their interim ranking in seventh place, just one point behind sixth place.

Will the VfL offense overwhelm the promoted team?

The team’s showpiece is unquestionably the offense, which already has 40 (!) goals. For a better understanding, it should be mentioned that even in their only championship season, the green-whites had nowhere near as many goals on the board at the same point in time. The impressive “shot conversion rate” of 24% – the top figure in the Bundesliga – also attests to the great efficiency of the VfL attack. 19 Bundesliga home games with at least one goal scored by the home team round off the remarkable offensive statistics and provide arguments for taking a closer look at the odds for over-goals between Wolfsburg and Kiel.

Mohamed Amoura is a potential goal scorer tip, as the Algerian already scored twice in Munich last week and is his team’s top scorer with 14 goals (eight goals, six assists). Incidentally, the last player to have as many scorer points after 18 match days was a certain Kevin de Bruyne in 2014/15. If Amoura scores on Friday evening, such a tip for the Wolfsburg v Kiel game attracts betting odds of up to 2.50.

The quotes for a triple for the home side, who have won three of their last four matches in the Volkswagen Arena, are also attractive. In addition, the home record against promoted teams is breathtaking: VfL has not lost any of the last 15 Bundesliga home games against them (10-5-0). The standard strength – already 15 goals from set pieces – could also be a factor against Kiel, the team most vulnerable in this category.

Kiel – Statistics & current form

The strong 4-2 home win against Borussia Dortmund ten days ago almost sparked a new euphoria on the Kiel Fjord. However, instead of following up last weekend at home against the crisis-ridden Hoffenheimers and drawing level with the relegation place in terms of points, they suffered a bitter 3-1 defeat, which once again underlined that the storks can only score/win in the German top flight if they perform to their absolute maximum.

Holstein Kiel is always good for a goal or two

The team’s defensive frailty remains a cause for concern. 46 goals conceded is the highest figure in the league. On average, goalkeeper Timon Weiner has had to fish the ball out of the net 2.55 times per game. The men from the Baltic have only conceded fewer than two goals in two of the 18 Bundesliga matches played to date. The last Bundesliga debutant to concede so many goals at this stage of the season was Stuttgarter Kickers almost 40 years ago.

To make matters worse, the promoted team is still waiting for its first away win this season and has only managed to pick up a meager two points from eight Bundesliga away games. The last five league matches in opposing stadiums have all been lost by the team of coach Marcel Rapp. A bet on Over 2.5 would always have won. In general, at least three goals were scored in all eight of the Störche’s away games. Over the course of the entire season, the magical mark of three or more goals would have been broken in 14 of 18 matches involving KSV.

It is therefore advisable to make a prediction before the Wolfsburg vs Kiel clash that there will be another offensive spectacle. The NEO.bet app is offering a whopping 1.74 on both teams scoring. A favorite victory for the host with goals on both sides even comes with 2.67. Considering that Kiel have only failed to score in three league games and have always managed to get the ball over the opponent’s goal line at least once when playing away, the odds mentioned are quite tempting.

Wolfsburg – Kiel Direct comparison / H2H record

There have been three meetings between these clubs in professional football. In the 2017/18 Bundesliga relegation play-off, Wolfsburg came out on top in the first and second legs. In the current season, the Lower Saxony side also celebrated a 2-0 win at the fjord on matchday two, meaning that they could claim their fourth win in four attempts on Friday evening.

Wolfsburg – Kiel Tip

After a promising start to the 2025 football year, VfL Wolfsburg go into their home game against Holstein Kiel on Friday evening with a lot of confidence and quite clear advantages. Thanks to three wins in their last four Bundesliga home games, the green-whites have overcome their initial weakness in front of their own fans and have recently been quite convincing. The 40-goal offense will again have many good opportunities against the Bundesliga’s worst defense, and will once again cause a stir. It is therefore very unlikely that the Störche, who are yet to win away from home, will score or even win in the car city.
In my opinion, it is therefore advisable to combine the home win bet with Over 2.5 goals between Wolfsburg and Kiel. On the one hand, because the guests have scored in all away games this season so far. On the other hand, because in 14 of 18 Bundesliga matches involving KSV, at least three goals were scored. For my intended bet, Interwetten offers a top rate of 1.90, which I will play with six units.