Whose run will end on the second Sunday of Advent?
On the second Sunday of Advent, two of the form teams of the moment will face each other. Both VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won their last three Bundesliga games, which makes it very difficult to predict the outcome of this Sunday’s game between Wolfsburg and Mainz. Although the Wolves also impressed in the cup during the week, the Rhine Hessians come to the Volkswagen Arena with a remarkable away record.
The FSV has not lost in nine Bundesliga away games (four wins, five draws). This corresponds to the current club record of the Nullfünfer, who, with only five goals conceded, also have the best away defense in the top flight of German football. Nevertheless, our forecast for Wolfsburg against Mainz does not tend towards a low-scoring game.
Rather, we expect two teams that will fight to avoid losing their recent momentum. Moreover, the winner will move up into the upper third of the table and thus into a position to qualify for an international competition. We expect not only goals on both sides, but also over 2.5 goals in total. The only lower-scoring game was in one of the last seven Bundesliga duels between the two teams, when the first leg of the 2023/24 season ended 1:1.
Wolfsburg vs. Mainz Prediction AI
Supercomputer BETSiE sees too much risk overall in our betting recommendation. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 1.56 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.02 for 1. FSV Mainz 05, which adds up to a total of 2.58, but is exactly on the threshold of the 2.5 mark, which means that BETSiE cannot approve our preferred tip.
Instead, the AI prediction for the Wolfsburg vs. Mainz game is a home win for the Lower Saxony team. The Intertops app offers odds of 2.18 for tip 1, which results in a positive expected value here at a higher probability of occurrence than 45.9 percent. BETSiE calculates that the Wolves have a 49.9 percent chance of winning, which means that, in the opinion of the AI, the greatest value can be found in Tip 1. However, we cannot go along with this in view of Mainz’s away record.
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
VfL Wolfsburg got off to a rather lackluster start to the 2024/25 season, with Ralph Hasenhüttl’s job even on the line as a result. In the fall, however, the Lower Saxony-based club turned things around for good. The starting point was a 1-0 home win over Borussia Dortmund in the DFB Cup.
In the Bundesliga, the Wolves have now gone five games unbeaten (three wins, two draws), winning all of their last three matches – one more victory than in the previous 11 league games (only two). In the cup, that winning streak continued this week. The green-whites beat TSG Hoffenheim 3-0 to knock them out of the competition.
Wolfsburg with poor home record
Accordingly, VfL, who at just 25 years and 64 days old will field the youngest starting XI on average in the Bundesliga in the 2024/25 season, can approach this home game with confidence. Nevertheless, betting on Wolfsburg to win against Mainz is a very risky proposition. With only five out of a possible 18 points, the Lower Saxony team is only in 14th place in the Bundesliga home table.
Nevertheless, the Wolves have been unbeaten in seven competitive games in a row (five wins, two draws) and do not need to hide from the guests from Rhineland-Palatinate. The face of the upturn is undoubtedly Mohamed Amoura. The 24-year-old, who scored a brace in the brilliant 5-1 away win against RB Leipzig last time out, is the first Wolfsburg player since Zvjezdan Misimovic (2008/09) to have at least nine goals in his first ten Bundesliga games for VfL.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
1. FSV Mainz 05 have improved markedly under Bo Henriksen. The Rhinehessians have also not lost in five league games (three wins, two draws) and have won all of their last three Bundesliga games.
With 19 points, the “zero fives” are currently ranked seventh in the current table and have officially achieved their best Bundesliga start in 14 years (in 2010/11 it was even 24 points).
Mainz with a strong run away from home
The upturn was made possible, among other things, by the remarkable away record. The FSV has not lost in nine Bundesliga away games across two seasons (four wins, five draws), which is why it is quite surprising that the odds against an away win for the red and whites are so clear in the case of Wolfsburg against Mainz. Bet365 offers odds of 3.60 for tip 2, which could possibly be worth considering for a small side bet. We would therefore also like to refer you to the current Bet365 offer code.
Another Mainz win would not come out of nowhere. Not only did Bo Henriksen’s team keep a clean sheet three times in a row on foreign soil, but the Rhine Hessians also have the best away defense in the Bundesliga with only five goals conceded. Accordingly, the zero-five team can approach this away game with confidence.
Wolfsburg – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 19 – 16 – 11
A total of 46 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far, with VfL Wolfsburg leading the direct comparison with 19 wins. The Wolves have only lost three of the last 17 Bundesliga games against 1. FSV Mainz 05 (seven wins, seven draws). Last season, however, the Lower Saxony side only took one out of a possible six points against the Rhine Hessians.
Wolfsburg – Mainz betting tip
Although the betting odds of the best bookmakers are in favor of the home side in the Wolfsburg v Mainz game, not only did VfL only get one out of a possible six points against the Rhine Hessians last season, but overall there is a lot to suggest that the Nullfünfer will be able to avoid defeat in the Volkswagen Arena. The FSV is currently unbeaten in nine Bundesliga away games (four wins, five draws) and, just like the Wolves, has won its last three league games in a row.
Between two of the Bundesliga’s strongest teams, we expect a hot fight on the second Sunday of Advent, in which both will struggle to somehow maintain the momentum and build on their recent winning streak. Although both clubs have recently shown a high level of competence, especially defensively. Nevertheless, our forecast for Wolfsburg against Mainz is for over-goals.
