Will the Hammers get back on track in the derby?
After the FA Cup last weekend, the English Premier League now returns. Between Tuesday and Thursday, the 24th matchday of the current season will be completed. Tuesday is all about the relegation fight, as the three bottom teams are in action, however there is no direct duel between these teams. West Ham and promoted Watford face each other at the London Stadium on Tuesday from 20:45.
Head coach David Moyes’ home side confirm their strong last season and, as fifth in the table, can once again flirt with the sensational Champions League. Due to the different number of games, however, the Moyes eleven feels the pressure from Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolverhampton. In the fight for Europe, only a full success counts against a relegation candidate. This is considered very likely, after all, West Ham against Watford are only offered betting odds around 1.40 for a home win.
This very clear assessment on the part of the bookmakers is not necessarily surprising, after all, the Hornets are in free fall and have been waiting for a league win since the end of November. Will they be able to break free in the derby? West Ham are by no means Watford’s favourite team.
West Ham – Statistics & current form
The Hammers are still in fifth place in the English Premier League, but in a table based on losing points, the Moyes eleven would currently only find themselves in seventh place. City rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, as well as Wolverhampton, could still overtake West Ham due to their outstanding catch-up games. The two most recent league games in January were decisive for this.
Third defeat by a last-minute goal conceded
Millimetres ensured a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United on 22 January. Marcus Rashford was a hair’s breadth offside when he scored in injury time for Rangnick’s side. A bitter defeat that meant the Red Devils moved past West Ham. For the Hammers, it was their third defeat this season at the hands of a stoppage-time goal. However, the negative record since the inception of the Premier League is held by the visitors, Watford, of all teams. There were four such bitter defeats in 2017/18.
After West Ham lost to Leeds (2:3), it was already the second defeat en suite. The last time West Ham suffered three league defeats in a row was in June 2020. However, given the Hornets’ lack of form, as well as their good stats in midweek games (only one defeat in their last eleven PL games from Tue-Thu), there’s not much to be said for predicting a Hammers defeat against Watford.
Antonio and Bowen as home specialists
West Ham didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory at sixth division side Kidderminster Harriers at the weekend. A Rice goal in minute 91 averted an embarrassing exit and Jarrod Bowen struck in extra time to prevent the super-GAU. A classic case of massively underestimating the opponent.
Speaking of Jarrod Bowen – the winger, along with teammate Michail Antonio, is the player in the current PL season with the most scoring points in home games in 2021/22. Both players have scored five times each and set up four goals at the London Stadium. This duo should also make the difference in favour of the Hammers on Tuesday. Antonio is fit to return to action on Tuesday following his international trip for Jamaica, having been given a rest in the cup.
Predicted West Ham line-up:
Areola – Cresswell, Zouma, Dawson, Coufal – Soucek, Rice – Fornals, Lanzini, Bowen – Antonio
Last matches played by West Ham:
FA Cup
02/05 2022 – Kidderminster 1 – 2 West Ham
Premier League
01/22 2022 – Manchester United 1 – 0 West Ham
01/16 2022 – West Ham 2 – 3 Leeds
01/12 2022 – West Ham 2 – 0 Norwich
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – West Ham 2 – 0 Leeds
Watford – Statistics & current form
As we all know, good things come in threes – the third head coach this season is now expected to save the Hornets. Promotion coach Xisco Munoz had to pack his bags after matchday seven, successor Claudio Ranieri did not succeed in a second fairy tale and after 14 competitive games (and eleven defeats) the cooperation was terminated. Now Roy Hodgson has been brought back from his coaching retirement and the long-time coach of city rivals Crystal Palace is expected to make a success of the difficult mission.
Goal-less draw on debut
Crystal Palace’s football in recent years has not necessarily been a visual highlight, but with manageable resources, the Eagles have always been able to fix their relegation with relative aplomb. A very compact defence, fast switching play and strong standards were the cornerstones of success. What Hornets fans can/must be prepared for was seen on Hodgson’s debut.
Watford played the first of three PL relegation matches against Burnley at the weekend. Both teams had already been knocked out of the FA Cup, so there was nothing in the way of the game. However, no goals were scored and the goalless draw leaves both teams treading water. Watford are now without a win in the Premier League for nine games (two draws, seven defeats) and last won 4-1 against Manchester United on 20 November. Eight times the stakes would be waiting for a Hornets win at West Ham vs Watford for the successful prediction – but this is by no means realistic.
Hopeful Dennis returns
Hodgson still had to do without the suspended ex-Cologne player Emmanuel Dennis on his debut. The Nigerian failed to make a lasting impression at the “Effzeh”, but is virtually the life insurance in London. With eight goals and five assists, he is both the top scorer and the best provider of assists. After his suspension, he will return to the starting line-up. Africa Cup winner Ismaila Sarr is not yet an issue, the speedy winger is predestined for Hodgson’s football.
Predicted Watford line-up:
Foster – Kamara, Samir, Kabasele, Femenia – Cleverley, Kayembe, Sissoko – Joao Pedro, Dennis, King
Last matches played by Watford:
Premier League
02/05 2022 – Burnley 0 – 0 Watford
01/21 2022 – Watford 0 – 3 Norwich
01/15 2022 – Newcastle United 1 – 1 Watford
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Watford
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Watford 0 – 1 Tottenham
West Ham – Watford Direct Comparison / H2H Record
An end to the drought for the visitors is unlikely given the head-to-head comparison in this London city derby. West Ham have won their last four Premier League matches against Watford and have also scored at least three goals in each of those games. The first leg this season was a straightforward affair in favour of Moyes’ charges, who won 4-1 as visitors at Vicarage Road. West Ham have now won 27 of their 43 league games against Watford (63 per cent win ratio) – the highest figure from the Hammers’ point of view against any team with more than 20 matches to their name.
West Ham – Watford betting tips
After two defeats before the international break and a troublesome cup performance, the Moyes eleven certainly cannot be said to be in top form at the moment. However, the situation at Sir Elton John’s favourite club is far more precarious. Accordingly, the home side can certainly be said to have an advantage in terms of form. The quality advantages are undisputed anyway and therefore the odds offered for West Ham against Watford are justified.
The Hammers have already scored 41 league goals and are the fourth best offensive side in the league. Hodgson will try to give Watford stability, but the veteran coach will not be able to eliminate the many individual mistakes in this short time. Therefore, not only the bet on a home win but also the prediction on a handicap win against Watford seems to have good chances of success. Six units are used as a stake in this bet.
