Are the Hammers with their heads already in the Europa League?
On Thursday night, West Ham United were first challenged in the round of 16 of the Europa League. Next Sunday, it’s back to the Premier League for the Londoners. In their own stadium, the men of coach David Moyes receive the in-form Villans from Birmingham. On paper, the task should be absolutely solvable for the home side, but Coutinho and Co. have been in absolutely impressive form for the visitors recently.
The three-match winning streak of Gerrard’s eleven has also been noticed by the bookmakers, who have adjusted the odds accordingly in the duel between West Ham and Aston Villa. Almost every day, the top odds on the home win increased, which means nothing other than that the probability of occurrence decreased.
In addition, of course, it must be taken into account that the Londoners already play the second leg in the Europa League next Thursday and thus may not be mentally or even physically up to par. However, whether this approach justifies making a prediction on the first away win for the seven-time champions between West Ham and Aston Villa after six recent winless attempts at the Irons is analyzed below.
West Ham – statistics & current form
After West Ham made a splash last year by finishing sixth in the final standings, the most important realization for the team from London this season may be that this positive performance was not a flash in the pan. Instead, the Irons seem to have been able to establish themselves in the top third of the Premier League table.
At present, coach David Moyes’ team is once again in sixth place. They are just three points off the last Champions League spot, although Arsenal, currently in fourth place, have three fewer matches to play. In the final sprint, it is much more a matter of securing qualification for the Europa League group stage again in 2022/23.
West Ham in search of consistency
In recent weeks, the Hammers have struggled a bit with consistency. Only one of the past four league games has been victorious. In the review of the last seven matches in the Premier League, only two victories have been recorded. Especially offensively, there is a huge gap at the moment. Seven own goals in the review of the seven matches mentioned above underline this impressively. The capitals also lost the dress rehearsal on Thursday evening in Seville with an offensive zero with 0:1.
To make matters worse, performances in front of a home crowd have also been extremely inconsistent. Wins (four) and draws or defeats (four) alternated in the last eight home games. According to the law of the series, it would now be the turn of another point loss at the weekend. The last time the Hammers won two home games in a row was in October/November 2021.
The home offense can always be counted on
Given the fluctuating form and the already mentioned double burden that the Londoners will already feel on Thursday with the second leg in the Europa League, we believe that between West Ham and Aston Villa the odds for the bet on the home win do not yield a high value.
However, Michail Antonio and his colleagues are likely to score, as they are the only team apart from Liverpool to have scored in all their home games this season. In fact, they have scored at least one goal in 15 consecutive matches at the London Stadium this season. Personnel changes in the starting eleven are conceivable. A painful loss is undoubtedly that of Brandon Bowen on the wing.
Predicted lineup of West Ham:
Fabianski; Johnson, Dawson, Zouma, Cresswell; Soucek, Rice; Benrahma, Lanzini, Fornals; Antonio
Last matches played by West Ham:
Premier League
03/13 2022 – West Ham 2 – 1 Aston Villa
Europa League Final Stage
03/10 2022 – Sevilla 1 – 0 West Ham
Premier League
03/05 2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 West Ham
FA Cup
03/02 2022 – Southampton 3 – 1 West Ham
Premier League
02/27 2022 – West Ham 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Aston Villa is something like the team of the hour in the English Premier League. After the team of coach Steven Gerrard from seven games since Boxing Day could only record a single three-pointer, recently added three wins from the latest three encounters. First, Villa won at Brighton, then at home against Southampton, and finally, during the week, in the catch-up game at Leeds United. Particularly impressive: All three victories came without conceding a goal. Coutinho and Co. even scored nine goals of their own!
With the confidence boosted and the momentum outstanding, we’re not willing to make a prediction against the visitors for Sunday’s match between West Ham and Aston Villa.
Coutinho can be relied upon
In order to bring in a positive result, however, the Birmingham club will have to fade two somewhat worrying statistics. On the one hand, the ninth-placed team in the table, who incidentally only shared the points with their respective opponents three times in the entire course of the season, lost five of the total of six Sunday matches in the current season. On the other hand, the record in away games in the English capital reads anything but outstanding. Historically, Aston Villa have won only 21% of all matches played in London.
A real encouragement, however, relates to the fact that there are only four teams in the Premier League that celebrated more away victories than Aston Villa in 2021/22. Six wins are offset by eight defeats away from home, which is partly why we don’t necessarily go for the double chance 1X odds between West Ham and Aston Villa, but immediately go for the DNB 2.
The offensive hopes rest, of course, on the already mentioned Philippe Coutinho, who has quickly matured into the most important player since his arrival. The former Munich player has already been involved in seven goals in eight Premier League games (four goals, three assists) and adds a whole new quality to the often too harmless Villa attack. There won’t be many changes from recent performances. Why should there be? Stevie Gerrard can be very pleased with his team’s performances.
Predicted lineup of Aston Villa:
Martinez; Cash, Chambers, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey; Coutinho; Ings, Watkins
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
03/13 2022 – West Ham 2 – 1 Aston Villa
03/10 2022 – Leeds 0 – 3 Aston Villa
03/05 2022 – Aston Villa 4 – 0 Southampton
02/26 2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Aston Villa
02/19 2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Watford
West Ham – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record
For seven Premier League games now, Aston Villa has been waiting for a treble against West Ham United. The last time the Villans won against the Hammers was in the 2014/2015 season. The Birmingham club has also failed to win in its six most recent matches at the London Stadium (three draws, three defeats). The first leg ended 4-1 in favor of the Irons, who have still only won 23 of their 50 first league home games against their upcoming opponents.
West Ham – Aston Villa tip
For West Ham United, Sunday’s noon match against Aston Villa is a special challenge for two reasons. On the one hand, it is virtually the “sandwich” game between the two Europa League round of 16 games against Sevilla. On the other hand, it’s against an extremely in-form opponent who is focused entirely on the Premier League and is brimming with confidence after recent results.
Therefore, it is not surprising that before the duel West Ham vs. Aston Villa the betting odds on the home victory have even increased recently. The Villans have recently won three in a row, scoring nine goals and conceding none. Even though they historically don’t like to play in London and have problems on Sundays in 2021/22, we think they can do well in the capital against the Irons
We therefore try it between West Ham and Aston Villa with the tip on the away win, which we hedge, however, via the draw no-bet market. At Unibet, we get a respectable 2.33 at the top for this, which is worth a medium bet of five units to us. We think it’s not impossible that Moyes’ eleven is already thinking about the EL second leg next Thursday and therefore doesn’t put the necessary focus on this match.
