West Brom still without a home defeat in 2021/22

For the 141st time, the FA Cup will be played in the motherland of football. A competition with a huge tradition, in which over 700 clubs originally took part. In the meantime, the field of participants has been reduced to 64 teams. For the first time in the competition, teams from the two highest divisions are now represented. At The Hawthorns Stadium on Saturday afternoon, West Brom and Brighton will face each other in the battle for a place in the last 32.

Last season this was a clash that also went down in the regular Championship. However, the Baggies had to cope with relegation and, accordingly, are now only operating in the second division. However, the home side can dream of a direct return to the English top flight and should therefore have enough self-confidence. However, this is also true for the visitors, as the Potter eleven has been playing big in the league so far.

With this in mind, it is not surprising that the betting on the higher-ranked visitors is considered the most likely outcome in the West Brom vs Brighton clash. However, the home side are extremely strong at home and accordingly there are definitely signs that point to a surprise. As is well known, cup competitions have their own laws. The match kicks off on Saturday afternoon at 4 p.m.

West Brom – Statistics & current form

The Baggies were relegated last season without a single win. From the seventh matchday onwards, West Bromwich Albion were consistently in a relegation spot and had to deal with a return to the Championship early on. Since this season, West Bromwich have had a new coach on the bench who is well known in German-speaking countries – the Frenchman Valerien Ismael.

Strongest defence in the league

The former Germany legionnaire and LASK coach had made a good name for himself on the island at Barnsley and was rewarded with a transfer to one of the Championship’s top teams after just a few months. While he was still extremely attacking in a 3-4-3 system at LASK in Austria, the showpiece in his current job is the defence. In 25 league games, the promotion aspirants have conceded only 19 goals so far. This gives WBA the best defence in the league.

With a total of 50 goals (goal ratio 31:19), there has been an average of exactly two goals per league match. Only Derby County in the Championship has an even lower average (1.88 goals). Therefore, in the FA Cup clash between West Brom and Brighton, the recommended value tip is the prediction on the under 2.5

Home strength gives hope

A game with countless scoring chances is by no means to be expected. However, attention should be focused on one of the home side’s offensive players. The young US-American Daryl Dike transferred to the Baggies a few days ago. Dyke joined Barnsley in spring 2021 and had already worked with Ismael there (19 games, nine goals). His signing raises the quality once again and should provide a surprise.

Surprise may be a bit of an overstatement, as head coach Valerien Ismael’s team has not lost a single home game this season. In the twelve games so far, there have been seven wins and five draws. WBA have conceded just six goals. However, a red card for goalkeeper Sam Johnstone means Ismael will have to make changes between the posts. Veteran David Button will probably have the edge over the inexperienced Alex Palmer.

Predicted line-up of West Brom:
Button – Bartley, Ajayi, Kipre – Townsend, Molumby, Reach, Diangana – Grant, Fellows – Dike

Last matches played by West Brom:

Championship
01/02 2022 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 1 Cardiff

12/27 2021 – Derby 1 – 0 West Bromwich Albion

12/17 2021 – Barnsley 0 – 0 West Bromwich Albion

12/11 2021 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 0 Reading

12/04 2021 – Coventry 1 – 2 West Bromwich Albion

Brighton – Statistics & current form

Cheftrainer Graham Potter has had a very tough time at the Seagulls for a long time. The separation from success coach Chris Hughton (promotion,  two times class preservation) was incomprehensible for many supporters. But Potter is now in his third season at Brighton   Hove Albion. His way of playing football is completely different from the Hughton philosophy. Possession of the ball and taking control of the game are the order of the day for Potter.

Ten points more than last year

At times, it looked very promising in the last two years, but the team lacked the consistency to move towards mid-table. This season, the Seagulls have taken a big step forward and could finally establish themselves in the midfield. Relegation worries? For the first time in PL history Brighton do not know this, because the current lead is already a comfortable 16 points. And they have already picked up a number of points against much higher-ranked teams. Most recently, they drew 1-1 away at Chelsea before starting the new year with a 3-2 win at Everton.

The strong results away from home are also a plus point this season. Only the visit of Aston Villa was lost with 0:2. In the nine remaining games Brighton managed to win at least one point. With six draws in ten games, Brighton present themselves as “draw specialists” away from home. With a little risk, the prediction on the draw is therefore a good choice for West Brom against Brighton. It is important to remember that the home side are very strong at home.

Potter will probably rotate

After only one defeat from their last seven league games, Brighton will come in with a broad chest. However, the A-team is by no means to be expected, as Graham Potter already hinted at one or the other (voluntary) change. Captain Lewis Dunk and Tudor Baluta are definitely out due to injury. Yves Bissouma is away at the Africa Cup and is therefore not an option for the Cup match. In addition, players like Neul Maupay (top scorer), James MacAllister (double scorer against Everton) or goalkeeper Robert Sanchez are probably ready for a break. Given the expected reshuffles, predicting on the visitors seems too risky.

Predicted line-up of Brighton:
Steele – Cucurella, Duffy, Burn, Lamptey – March, Alzate, Gross, Mwepu – Trossard, Welbeck

Last Brighton games:

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Everton 2 – 3 Brighton

12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton

12/26 2021 – Brighton 2 – 0 Brentford

12/15 2021 – Brighton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton

12/04 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Brighton

West Brom – Brighton Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

This fixture was still a Premier League clash last season. Although West Bromwich Albion collected four points in the two games against the Seagulls, relegation was certain at the end of the season.

The last time this clash took place in the FA Cup was in 2018/19. After a draw at Brighton’s AMEX Stadium, a replay was on the agenda. This too ended in a draw before Brighton prevailed in extra time.

West Brom – Brighton Tip

This cup match will be anything but a walk in the park for the Premier League club. The home side are particularly strong at home and have not lost a single game in front of their home crowd this season. Although the Seagulls are in very good shape themselves, they have to cope with one or two serious absences. Therefore, our tip for the cup match between West Brom and Brighton goes in the direction of the home side.

In view of the starting position, a certain “draw risk” cannot be dismissed and is certainly worth a try with moderate betting. With the Baggies extremely strong at home and Brighton in an unfamiliar line-up, the underdog role for the home side is not really comprehensible. To hedge the betting odds between West Brom and Brighton are played on the draw-no-bet market.

The first home defeat is not to be expected and therefore the 2.37 for the home win (with the cashback option in case of a draw) seems very interesting and definitely delivers value. In the end, it is probably a 50/50 match where the form of the day will be decisive.