Little action on the Weser?
While SV Werder Bremen were able to move up again after two consecutive clean sheets, 1. FC Union Berlin have now gone seven league games without a win (three draws, four defeats). In principle, the tip for the home win for Werder Bremen against Union Berlin is therefore among the more favorable signs, especially since the team from the Weser has also not been defeated in three Bundesliga home games (one win, two draws).
However, when predicting the outcome of the match between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin, it should not be forgotten that the Irons have won six of the eight Bundesliga duels with the Green-Whites so far (two defeats). Only against 1. FC Cologne have the capital city club celebrated more Bundesliga victories (seven) than against SVW (six). However, Werder only managed a 2-0 home win against the Berliners last season.
An overly action-packed game is not really to be expected in the Weser Stadium. Not only did Bremen keep a clean sheet in each of their last three competitive games, but they also only scored four goals of their own in total. On the other hand, the Irons have the third-weakest Bundesliga offense with 13 goals, while their 15 goals against are only bettered by Bayern (ten).
Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin prognosis AI
In contrast to us, the BETSiE supercomputer is currently very cautious about the double chance. While the odds for 1X, which are estimated at 1.32 at LeoVegas, suggest a probability of 75.8 percent for Werder to win the point, the AI forecast for Werder Bremen against Union Berlin calculates a probability of exactly 72 percent for the north Germans to win the point and thus sees a negative expected value here.
At least when it comes to evaluating the expected goals, the BETSiE agrees with us, because it calculates an xG value of 1.2 for SVW and 0.92 for the Iron – in combination, therefore, a 2.12, which is not only well below 3.5, but even below 2.5. The BETSiE, which does not consider value in the three-way system, therefore suggests simply avoiding any entanglements by playing the under-bet.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
SV Werder Bremen have had a mixed bag of results as the year draws to a close. However, the interim conclusion just before the end of the year is something to be proud of. The green-whites have picked up 22 out of a possible 42 points, which is their best Bundesliga start in 13 years. Just a year ago, they had a total of eight points less on the board.
On top of that, the north Germans are also still in the running for the DFB Cup, where they will face third division team Arminia Bielefeld at the end of February 2025, who in turn eliminated 1. FC Union Berlin in the second round.
Werder Bremen is currently on track
In the Bundesliga, the green-whites recently celebrated two clean-sheet wins in a row, which means they have not been defeated in four competitive games (three wins, one draw). At home, there has been no defeat in three Bundesliga home games (one win, two draws). The mood among Ole Werner’s men is correspondingly good.
If the tip for the home win over Union Berlin goes for Werder Bremen, then in theory even a jump into the top six would be possible, which would allow the Weserelf to go into the short winter break in the very best of moods. However, it should not be completely discounted that the Berliners are an easy opponent for Bremen. SVW have lost six of the previous eight Bundesliga games against the Irons (two wins).
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
1. FC Union Berlin have got off to an excellent start. Occasionally, hopes of another year in a European competition were certainly kindled again. At least these thoughts were quickly put aside. Currently, the Berliners have not won in seven Bundesliga games in a row (three draws, four defeats).
Even at home against bottom-of-the-league Bochum, the long-awaited win failed to materialize (1:1). It is therefore not surprising that the best bookmakers’ odds against FCU at Werder Bremen against Union Berlin are against FCU. Intertops is even offering a 3.71 for the away win.
Union Berlin scores too few goals
The big weakness of the Irons is quickly identified: they have trouble scoring goals. The only 13 goals scored attest to 1. FC Union Berlin having the third-weakest offense in the Bundesliga. In four of the last seven competitive games, the Köpenickers didn’t score at all.
It doesn’t help much that the capital city’s defense at least stood firm for the most part. The only 15 Bundesliga goals conceded are only bettered by FC Bayern Munich (ten), although it should be noted that in seven of the last eight competitive games, there has always been at least one goal conceded.
Werder Bremen – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 3 – 0 – 5
A total of eight Bundesliga duels and one DFB Cup clash stand between the two teams. While SV Werder Bremen celebrated a convincing 5-0 win in the cup at 1. FC Union Berlin, who were still in the lower leagues at the time, the Irons have in turn won six of the previous eight Bundesliga games against the Weserelf (two defeats).
Werder Bremen – Union Berlin Tip
All in all, our prediction for Werder Bremen against Union Berlin is that the North Germans, who have not been beaten in four competitive games (three wins, one draw), will win three games with a clean sheet and 4:0 goals across all competitions. In view of the fact that the guests from the capital usually play very defensively and cautiously at the expense of their own offense, there could be correspondingly little action in the Weser Stadium, where results like 0-0 are by no means out of the question.
Because we think it is very likely that Bremen will get a point and we do not expect a goal festival, we recommend the combined tip on the double chance 1X at under 3.5 goals, which covers most eventualities in this duel.
Betting odds of 1.60 are available for this at LeoVegas, which we are taking with four units on Werder Bremen against Union Berlin.
