Will the KSV build on the first three points at the Weser?

Last weekend, history was made at the fjord. Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 to record their first-ever Bundesliga victory in the club’s history at the ninth attempt. Now the storks want to build on this at the Weser, where SVW have not really covered themselves in glory so far. The fact that the tip for Kiel to get a point against Werder Bremen is not that far-fetched is also due to the fact that the Green-Whites have only scored two out of twelve possible points at home.

It should be noted, however, that the Schleswig-Holsteiners have yet to be defeated in four Bundesliga away games (two draws, two defeats). However, the most recent record at Werder Bremen against Kiel suggests that the Störche, who were the only team in the Bundesliga 2 in 2021/22 to take the full six points against Werder, will win a point.

Two other points are also very interesting. Firstly, SV Werder Bremen are the only Bundesliga club not to have won any of their four league games against the two promoted teams, Heidenheim and Darmstadt, in the 2023/24 season (one draw, three defeats). Secondly, the Green-Whites are the only Bundesliga club in the current 2024/25 season never to have taken the lead at half-time (five draws, four defeats).

So, if you think our betting tip on the double chance X2 is too risky, you might be interested in betting on Holstein Kiel taking a 1-0 lead in this northern summit. You can place your bet on the storks scoring first via the handy Bwin app at odds of 2.65.

Werder Bremen vs. Kiel Prediction AI

We often manage to find a consensus with our supercomputer BETSiE, which means that our bets are also backed up by the AI. In this particular case, however, we have a situation in which man is competing against machine, because the BETSiE recommends exactly the tip that we exclude with the double chance X2: the bet on the home win of Bremen.

The top odds of 1.69 for Tip 1 suggest that Werder have a 59.2 percent chance of winning. In other words, anyone who gives SVW at least 60 percent is already in the value range. With the BETSiE, it’s not even close. The AI calculates that the Weserelf have a 66.2 percent chance of winning at home. Thus, the AI prediction for Werder Bremen against Kiel is clearly for Tip 1.

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

SV Werder Bremen ended the 2023/24 season in a very satisfactory ninth place in the final table and almost even managed to qualify for the Conference League. Even without the European competition, the season was still considered a great success, and the team is now looking to build on it.

In principle, Ole Werner’s men are performing well at this level again. After nine league games, SVW are in tenth place and have already collected their first twelve points.

The big discrepancy between home and away games is problematic. The green-whites have only managed to collect two of their twelve points at home. This means that the ratio of home points is just 17 percent – lower than any other Bundesliga club.

Werder Bremen with weak performance on the Weser

It is all the more surprising that the odds are so clearly in favor of Werner’s team against Kiel at Werder Bremen, who not only remained winless in all four home games (two draws, two defeats), but have also not been in the lead for a single second at home.

To make matters worse, SVW also lost their last home game against the Störche in the 2nd Bundesliga and the record of the green-whites against promoted teams has recently been very poor. In 2023/24, Werder were the only Bundesliga team not to win any of their four matches against the two promoted teams, Heidenheim and Darmstadt (one draw, three defeats).

Accordingly, it will be difficult for the kickers from the Weser, who are the only Bundesliga club in the current season not to have gone into the break with a lead, but who would be in third place in the fictional table of the second halves with 17 points.

Kiel – Statistics & current form

It took eight matchdays, but with the 1-0 home win over 1. FC Heidenheim, Holstein Kiel finally made it into the top flight of German football on matchday nine. The fact that the storks can be an asset in this respect was already demonstrated by their respectable 2-2 draw at double winners Bayer Leverkusen.

Now that the first home point has finally been secured, the aim is to celebrate the first away win as soon as possible. So far, there have been two draws and two defeats in the four Bundesliga away games.

Kiel is strong at set pieces

Marcel Rapp’s team will have to improve defensively for this, though. Although the KSV kept a clean sheet for the first time in the 1-0 win over Heidenheim, they have already conceded a total of 23 goals, which is only bettered by bottom-of-the-league Bochum (29).

However, if the Schleswig-Holsteiners can continue to defend as stably as they have done recently, another of their strengths could come into play at the Weser, namely their efficiency from set pieces. The north Germans have scored 55 percent of all Bundesliga goals (six out of 11) from set-piece situations so far this season.

Against this background, it is by no means impossible that the tip for an away win for the Störche will come up against Werder Bremen against Kiel, who already beat SVW 3-2 in the 2nd Bundesliga in 2021/22.

Werder Bremen – Kiel Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 16 – 5 – 16

A total of 37 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with 16 wins and five draws each, making the head-to-head completely even. The last time the two teams met was in the 2021/22 season in the Bundesliga 2. The Störche remained unbeaten in the two legs against Werder Bremen and took the full six points against the Green-Whites.

Werder Bremen – Kiel Tip

For our taste, the betting odds of the top bookmakers were far too clear in favor of Werder Bremen against Kiel, who have remained completely winless in four Bundesliga home games this season (two draws, two defeats). Only St. Pauli, moreover, have not yet taken the lead for a single second at home just like SVW in 2024/25, which is why it is quite conceivable that the Störche, who have gained fresh self-confidence in the recent 1-0 win against Heidenheim, can now follow up on the Weser.

As a result, the forecast for the double chance X2 is very interesting for Werder Bremen against Kiel, especially since the KSV took the full six points against SVW three years ago in the year both clubs were in the second division. Bremen have also had a particularly hard time against promoted teams recently.

For Kiel to get a point at the Weser, odds of 2.30 are available at Betway, which we are taking up with three units.