Will Guardiola extend his Watford run?

One of the two Manchester clubs has already suffered a black miracle at Vicarage Road this season. Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. lost 4-1 at promoted Watford a fortnight ago, embarrassing themselves to no end. The Hornets would love to repeat that surprise coup next weekend. For the first time since 1986/87, Watford could win against both City and United in the English top flight…

However, a tough 90 minutes lie ahead in which the underdogs will be primarily focused on working against the ball, much like they were during the week. There is nothing at all to shake about the clear underdog role of coach Claudio Ranieri’s team in the evening match starting at 18:30 (live on Sky).

In view of the different team strengths and the direct comparison, which has never shown the Sky Blues to be the losers in the past 18 encounters against the Hornets, the main question is how a tip on the favourite in the match between Watford and Manchester City can be “boosted” accordingly in order to gain attractive value.

Watford – Statistics & current form

Watford Football Club are really not to be envied these weeks. On the one hand, the Hornets are of course happy to be back in regular competition with the best teams in the country in the top division. On the other hand, the promoted team would probably have been quite happy if the highlight matches had not all been on the agenda one after the other.

Most recently, the Hornets played Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester City and Chelsea in succession. The top match weeks now come to an early end on Saturday against the reigning title holders. Three of the four matches mentioned above were lost. The only exception was the 4:1 victory against a Man United that was in extreme crisis at the time. In the other matches, the promoted team sold itself dearly, but was not rewarded for the great effort. This was also the case during the week, when they suffered a 2-1 defeat at home against Chelsea.

Can tired Hornets put up a fight again?

The enormously intense home game, which was drawn out due to a medical emergency and took a lot of physical and mental energy, could now ensure that the mental and physical freshness is somewhat lacking against the most dominant team in the Premier League. Should this scenario occur, a high success for Guardiola’s eleven beckons. Between Watford and Manchester City, a prediction on the away win with three or more goals difference would be well worth considering.

In general, not much is expected of the home side against the industry leaders, especially as Watford have lost 19 of their 26 league games against the reigning champions. The calculated 73% corresponds to the highest defeat rate of all teams that have played at least 20 such matches. Moreover, it should give pause for thought that the 17th-placed team behind Norwich and Newcastle has the weakest defence in the league and has been behind at half-time in exactly half of all 14 games.

The tight personnel situation makes the task even more difficult. Masina, Sarr, Baah, Foster, N’Koulou and Etebo are definitely out due to injury. Sema and Sierralta are also likely to miss this weekend’s match. In attack, hopes rest on ex-Cologne player Emmanuel Dennis, who has scored in each of his last three Premier League matches. If he scores against City, he will join Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo in the elite circle who have scored in four consecutive games for the Hornets.

Predicted Watford line-up:
Bachmann; Ngakia, Troost-Ekong, Cathcart, Rose; Kucka; Dennis, Sissoko, Cleverley, Pedro; King

Last matches played by Watford:

Premier League
12/01 2021 – Watford 1 – 2 Chelsea London

11/28 2021 – Leicester 4 – 2 Watford

11/20 2021 – Watford 4 – 1 Manchester United

11/07 2021 – Arsenal London 1 – 0 Watford

10/30 2021 – Watford 0 – 1 Southampton

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

The month of December is usually a very successful one for Manchester City. In the last ten competitive games in the last month before the turn of the year, the Citizens remained unbeaten and celebrated seven victories. The goal difference of 17:3 underlines the thesis that the Himmelblauen, certainly also due to the enormously deep squad, really blossom towards the end of the year.

The remarkable series is now to be continued at the weekend, when they play a real favourite opponent. City have never lost to Watford in the Premier League. Across competitions, the reigning champions have also not lost to their upcoming opponents for 18 duels.

City away again without problems

Furthermore, the current form speaks a clear language in favour of Guardiola’s eleven. Nine of the most recent ten competitive matches have been won. In seven of the nine victories mentioned, the Sky Blues were already leading at half-time. It is therefore hardly surprising that odds of just 1.61 are being offered for the double HT2/FT2 result between Watford and Manchester City on Saturday evening. As a single bet or as a multiplier for combination bets, this market can nevertheless be played with a clear conscience.

Another argument that points to a commanding three-goal win for the visitors is the remarkable away record of the defending champions. Only two of the past 21 Premier League matches away from home have been lost. The runners-up are unbeaten in six away games. Since Pep Guardiola took charge, no other team has won more away games than the Citizens (72). Win No. 73 seems to be a mere formality, even though several potential regulars – de Bruyne, Torres, Gündogan, Stones and Walker – are out injured.

Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson; Cancelo, Dias, Laporte, Zinchenko; Silva, Rodri, Foden; Jesus, Sterling, Grealish

Last matches played by Manchester City:

Premier League
12/01 2021 – Aston Villa 1 – 2 Manchester City

11/28 2021 – Manchester City 2 – 1 West Ham

Champions League Grp. A
11/24 2021 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain

Premier League
11/21 2021 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Everton

11/06 2021 – Manchester United 0 – 2 Manchester City

Watford – Manchester City Direct Comparison / H2H Record

We have already indicated in both paragraphs that the direct comparison is clearly in favour of the visitors. In fact, in twelve Premier League duels so far, there have been twelve City wins and two draws. The Citizens have scored 37 goals and conceded only four. The two encounters from the last joint Premier League season in 2019/20 are still fresh in the memory. At home, Guardiola’s side won 8-0, while away they followed it up with a scarcely less commanding 4-0.

Watford – Manchester City Tip

Nine games, nine wins and 39:3 goals – that is Pep Guardiola’s personal record as Manchester City coach in games against Watford. On Saturday night, the Catalan now gets the chance to continue this impressive run. Admittedly, there is nothing to suggest that the Hornets could pull off a surprise.

Ahead of the Watford v Manchester City clash, the one-sided betting odds definitely have their raison d’être. The Sky Blues are stronger in all respects. In addition, the fact that the promoted team is playing its fourth game in a row against a top team makes things even more difficult. After the defeats against Leicester City (2:4) and Chelsea (1:2), the 17th in the table is now in danger of running out of steam. Physically and mentally.

But because there is still a residual risk, which can be attributed primarily to the fact that the Citizens have to do without several players and have recently impressed more with their effectiveness than with their dominance in terms of results, we have decided to bet between Watford and Manchester City that the favourite will lead at half-time and win in the end.