Can the Whites take the next step at Vicarage Road?

On January 1, 2024, Leeds United celebrated a 3-0 home win over Birmingham, which started an unbeaten streak that continues to this day. The Whites have now not lost in 13 EFL Championship games (twelve wins, one draw) and are making great strides towards a return to the Premier League. If the West Yorkshire side can now win at Watford against Leeds, it would be another small milestone

There is not much to suggest that the Hornets can stop the Peacocks’ run. As 13th in the Championship table, Watford are not doing too badly. However, a look at the home table paints a different picture. Only Rotherham (16) and Queens Park Rangers (18) have scored fewer points at home than the Hornets (21). The forecast for Watford’s next home defeat against Leeds is correspondingly consistent

The bet on an away win for the Whites is correspondingly playable, although it would even be conceivable to play an alternative bet in favor of higher odds. On the one hand, it is striking that Leeds United have won all of their last three competitive matches against Watford FC by 7-0 goals to nil – including the first leg on September 23, 2023 (3-0). And secondly, the Whites have conceded just three goals in their last 13 league games, keeping a clean sheet ten times in 2024.

Consequently, betting on the league leaders to win with a clean sheet is a good alternative for risk-taking bettors. NEObet offers quotes of 2.74 for this, which also promises some value.

Watford – Statistics & current form

Watford Football Club last played in the Premier League between 2015 and 2020, before relegation was followed by immediate promotion and relegation again. Having missed out on a direct return to the top flight of English soccer in 2022/23, the Hornets will now only play in the second tier for two consecutive seasons for the first time in ten years.

After the team from Hertfordshire finished eleventh in the final Championship table last season, the Black & Yellows are once again in the dismal mid-table. 48 points from 38 games is only enough for 13th place

Watford and the hope of the Cleverley effect

Watford could still have been in contention for the play-offs if the last few weeks had not been characterized by constant failure. They won just one of their last ten consecutive league games (three draws, six defeats) before a redeeming win under interim coach Tom Cleverley before the international break.

Emmanuel Dennis, who has already played 35 Premier League games for the Hornets in 2021/22 (ten goals) and was loaned back from Nottingham Forest in the winter, got on the scoresheet again in the 1-0 away win at relegation-threatened Birmingham City. The 26-year-old has three goals to his name in ten league games

Watford with long dry spell at Vicarage Road

The problem remains, however, that only Rotherham and QPR are weaker at home than the Black & Yellows, who have won just five of their 19 Championship games at home (six draws, eight defeats).

The last home win in league action dates back to November 2023 (3-2 against Norwich), which is why the betting on a three-pointer for Cleverley’s side against Leeds is not too good, especially as the last three games against the Whites have all been lost by 7-0 goals.

Predicted Watford line-up:
Bachmann – Morris, Pollock, Porteous, Andrews – Dele-Bashiru, Kayembe – Chakvetadze, Koné, Asprilla – Dennis

Leeds – Statistics & current form

In the summer of 2020, the traditional club and three-time national champions Leeds United returned to the Premier League after a 16-year absence. The Whites managed to stay in the top flight of English soccer for three years before dropping back down a level in the summer of 2023, finishing second last in the final table.

Daniel Farke took over as coach and was to immediately lead the Peacocks back into the Premier League, not only by keeping superstars such as Crysencio Summerville, who were being chased by top clubs, but also by signing promising new signings. However, the West Yorkshire outfit got off to a false start

Leeds aim for promotion thanks to strong run

For long stretches, it looked as if Leicester City and Ipswich Town had an unassailable lead. However, the Whites then embarked on a remarkable run that began with a 3-0 home win over Birmingham City on January 1, 2024.

Since then, Farke’s side have remained unbeaten in 13 consecutive Championship games (twelve wins, one draw) and have picked up an incredible 37 points out of a possible 39. Although the Peacocks’ goal difference is currently only one better, they have been top of the table for the first time in the 2023/24 season since the last matchday, but are “only” one point ahead of third place, which would only take them into the play-offs

No one plays to nil as often as Leeds

It is all the more important for the highly-decorated Championship club to extend their recent run and claim another treble at Vicarage Road. The odds for Watford v Leeds are clearly in favor of the Whites, who are doing so incredibly well defensively in particular.

The West Yorkshire side have conceded just three goals in their last 13 league games. This means that Leeds have kept a clean sheet a staggering ten times in the Championship in the 2024 calendar year, which is of course the best record in the league, as is the total of just 28 goals conceded from 38 matches in the 2023/24 season.

Expected line-up of Leeds:
Meslier – Firpo, Ampadu, Rodon, Gray – Gruev, Kamara – Summerville, Rutter, Gnonto – Bamford

Watford – Leeds head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 11 – 6 – 11

A total of 28 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with eleven wins and six draws each, the direct comparison is completely even. Most recently, however, the encounter was clearly in the hands of the Whites, who have won all of their last three encounters with Watford FC without conceding a goal. The first leg on September 23, 2023 also went 3-0 to Leeds United.

Watford – Leeds betting tip

All in all, our prediction for Watford vs Leeds is a clear away win for the Whites, who come to Vicarage Road with a brutal amount of momentum behind them. The Whites picked up a staggering 37 points out of a possible 39 in the 2024 calendar year, making immediate promotion back to the Premier League a big issue once again. Looking at the home table alone, it seems unlikely that the Hornets, of all teams, will be able to halt this run. After all, Watford FC are the third weakest home team in the EFL Championship

Because the Peacocks have only conceded three goals in their last 13 league games, it would even be conceivable to bet on the Whites, who are already very goal-happy, to win by one goal. In the end, however, we decide not to rule out at least the Hornets’ home goal and therefore stick to the classic three-way system